{"id":189544,"date":"2023-04-28T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-28T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189544"},"modified":"2023-05-01T12:00:20","modified_gmt":"2023-05-01T16:00:20","slug":"nowhere-man","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nowhere-man\/","title":{"rendered":"Nowhere, Man"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-is-vix-telling-us-today\/\">Earlier this month<\/a> we noted how the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) was at levels not seen since just before major turning points in the broad indices.&nbsp; Bearing in mind that VIX is structured as a method for determining the market\u2019s best estimate of volatility over the coming days, it has so far been doing a good job of anticipating the general stasis that we have seen throughout April.&nbsp; As I write this, around midday on the last day of the month, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) has spent the entire month within a 3% range; the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), which is typically more volatile, has been within a 4% range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-week-chart-spx-red-green-20-minute-bars-ndx-blue-line\"><strong><em>4 Week Chart, SPX (red\/green 20-minute bars), NDX (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"490\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-20.png\" alt=\"4 Week Chart, SPX (red\/green 20-minute bars), NDX (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-189547 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-20.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-20-700x366.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-20-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-20-768x402.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/490;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second half of the month, which admittedly brought more volatility than the first (though not by much) had the potential for some fireworks.&nbsp; We began earnings season in earnest on the 14<sup>th<\/sup>, when <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/jp-morgan-and-the-other-banks\/\">JPMorgan and some of its peers<\/a> reported.&nbsp;&nbsp; There were few surprises in those results, but the larger concerns in the banking sector were housed in the regional banking sector, not the \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d cadre.&nbsp; Yet for the most part, there were few fresh concerns amidst those banks as well.&nbsp; The one glaring exception is First Republic (FRC), which is plunging once again, but this time the market is viewing potential troubles in a single bank as an isolated event, not a cause for contagion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another cause for concern was that the <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/narrowing-leadership-raises-the-stakes-for-earnings-season\/\">narrow leadership of this year\u2019s rally<\/a> could have an undue negative influence on broad markets if those stocks stumbled.&nbsp; But for the most part, they haven\u2019t stumbled, and more have thrived.&nbsp; Tesla (TSLA) was the first megacap tech to report, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/tesla-proves-our-point\/\">and that stock plunged<\/a>.&nbsp; Since then, we have gotten huge beats from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META), and a decent report from Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).&nbsp; Yesterday, Amazon\u2019s (AMZN) results beat estimates but offered poor guidance, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/traders-betting-that-amazon-can-continue-the-earnings-streak\/\">disappointing bullish options traders<\/a> but not falling sufficiently to upset the market\u2019s recent rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another top-10 stock in NDX with a positive result was PepsiCo (PEP).&nbsp; We noted that a hallmark of this earnings season has been the ability of consumer stocks to <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/we-love-our-junk-food-and-are-willing-to-pay-up-for-it\/\">pass along higher prices<\/a> to their customers without penalty.&nbsp; The consumer remains stalwart, if not outright confident, which certainly provides a boost to the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rally of the past two days has caused VIX to sink to its lowest levels since November 2021.&nbsp; We even saw a 15 handle briefly today.&nbsp; For perspective, November 2021 was the peak in NDX, about 27% above current levels.&nbsp; (SPX peaked in early January 2022).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>4 Week Chart, SPX (red\/green 20-minute bars)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"344\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-28.png\" alt=\"4 Week Chart, SPX (red\/green 20-minute bars)\" class=\"wp-image-189546 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-28.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-28-700x257.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-28-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-28-768x282.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/344;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can this relative complacency continue?&nbsp; If past is prologue, then sure.&nbsp; We\u2019ve been in a tight range and it\u2019s normal for people to have a recency bias.&nbsp; That means that recent events weigh more heavily in people\u2019s decision making.&nbsp; We\u2019ve been quiet, so it\u2019s normal for traders to extrapolate that calm into their pricing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Might the coming week\u2019s FOMC meeting and\/or Apple (AAPL) earnings upset that calm?&nbsp; Sure, especially if traders have extrapolated the positive results from other megacaps onto AAPL and if the Fed gives no indication that the 2-3 anticipated rate cuts are nowhere on the horizon.&nbsp; Can we continue to largely ignore the drama surrounding the debt ceiling?&nbsp; Of course.&nbsp; We have another month or two before the crisis becomes acute, so it is not unreasonable to think that the worst outcomes can be avoided at the last minute.&nbsp; Is the market correct in looking at all these events through rose-colored lenses?&nbsp; I\u2019ll leave that for the readers to decide.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As I write this, around midday on the last day of the month, the S&#038;P 500 Index (SPX) has spent the entire month within a 3% range; the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), which is typically more volatile, has been within a 4% range.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":25244,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[15188,558,207,317],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-189544","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-market-complacency","15":"tag-ndx","16":"tag-spx","17":"tag-vix","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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