{"id":189516,"date":"2023-04-28T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-28T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189516"},"modified":"2023-04-28T10:25:38","modified_gmt":"2023-04-28T14:25:38","slug":"chinas-resurgence-fuels-the-luxury-market-air-travel-and-shipping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chinas-resurgence-fuels-the-luxury-market-air-travel-and-shipping\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Resurgence Fuels The Luxury Market, Air Travel And Shipping"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Chinese economic data blew expectations out of the water last week, reflecting a strong comeback for the Asian giant.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chinese economic data blew expectations out of the water last week, reflecting a strong comeback for the Asian giant as it finally emerges from the world\u2019s most restrictive pandemic-era lockdowns. The positive results are constructive for industries and sectors across the board, but I\u2019ll be closely watching the global luxury goods market, air passenger demand and container shipping in particular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the first quarter, China\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP) grew a healthy 4.5% year-over-year, exceeding consensus. Retail sales in March jumped 10.6% year-over-year, a pace unseen in two years. As a result, the Citi China Economic Surprise Index, which measures data surprises relative to market expectations, hit a 17-year high. UBS Group raised its 2023 GDP forecast to \u201cat least\u201d 5.7%, with analyst Patricia Lui writing that \u201cconsumption will remain the main driver of China\u2019s recovery this year.\u201d &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"402\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-chinese-eco-data-04212023.png\" alt=\"Chinese Economic Data Blows Past Forecasts\" class=\"wp-image-189519 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-chinese-eco-data-04212023.png 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-chinese-eco-data-04212023-700x313.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-chinese-eco-data-04212023-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-chinese-eco-data-04212023-768x343.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/402;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>European Luxury Retailers Bracing for the Return of China\u2019s Luxury Shoppers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Again, this is all very constructive for European luxury stocks. Before the pandemic, Chinese consumers were the leading nationality for tax-free luxury shopping worldwide, according to Switzerland-based tourism shopping firm Global Blue. A whopping&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalblue.com\/business\/knowledge-hub\/Get-ready-for-the-return-of-the-luxury-Chinese-shoppers\">one-third of global luxury sales,<\/a>&nbsp;or 93 billion euros ($102 billion), were made by Chinese shoppers in 2019, a vast majority of them while traveling abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It may take two years for a return to that level, but many retailers are already seeing an uptick. The massive luxury conglomerate LVMH and Hermes International both reported a surge in first-quarter sales thanks to the return of Chinese shoppers. The best-performing group in Europe\u2019s STOXX 600 Index so far this year is consumer products and services, up more than 26%. This is followed by leisure and travel, up 24%; and retail, up 22%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best-performing luxury stocks, meanwhile, include Hermes, up 38.6% year-to-date; Moncler, up 35%; and LVMH, up 32%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we reported in a recent Investor Alert, these gains helped Paris, France-listed stocks, as measured by the CAC 40 Index, hit a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/the-transition-to-electric-vehicles-and-renewables-will-test-global-commodity-supply\/?mkt_tok=NDk3LVNLVi0yNjIAAAGLIOp9MGPlxpIaaCYyauztLT5GY_mYJYoD0aB82QS_jiel4HW7IfN0dXEh4ScBK1COr7DnRCht6JiVUevb4WhOkv6n7zjQhoN2Vx49tDVg#international\">new record high,<\/a>&nbsp;a feat that the index repeated on Friday of last week. Besides Hermes and LVMH, the index\u2019s best-performing stocks in 2023 also include L\u2019Oreal, up 36%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Europe, \u201cluxury is seen as the highest quality sector by investors, in the same way technology is seen as the best growth sector in the U.S.,\u201d comments Zuzanna Pusz, an analyst at UBS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Chinese Airlines Gradually Increasing Capacity, Projected To Hit 75% Of 2019 Levels By Year-End<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After three years in strict lockdown, many middle- and high-income Chinese shoppers are eager to travel internationally again. The problem is that air capacity is currently only at 22% of 2019 levels. ForwardKeys and Global Blue project capacity to reach 45% of pre-pandemic levels after the summer and 75% by the end of this year. An estimated&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessoffashion.com\/briefings\/china\/wealthy-chinese-flock-to-high-octane-shopping-hubs\/?utm_source=newsletter_dailydigest&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Daily_Digest_190423&amp;utm_content=intro\">110 million outbound trips<\/a>&nbsp;from mainland China will take place this year, or two-thirds of 2019 traffic, according to the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI). Singapore is expected to be the top destination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"438\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-global-air-04212023.png\" alt=\"Global Air Capacity From China, Historical and Forecast\" class=\"wp-image-189518 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-global-air-04212023.png 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-global-air-04212023-700x341.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-global-air-04212023-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-global-air-04212023-768x374.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/438;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the coming weeks and months, this air travel recovery should be reflected in Chinese airline share prices, which currently lag most other regions so far this year. European carriers are currently the top performers, with budget airline easyJet up a phenomenal 57% year-to-date. Other carriers that are up double digits include Air France (+24.6%), Germany\u2019s Lufthansa (+24%), Ireland\u2019s Ryanair (+21%) and International Airlines Group (IAG) (+20.7%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-shanghai-shipping-rates-have-risen-for-four-straight-weeks\"><strong>Shanghai Shipping Rates Have Risen For Four Straight Weeks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The last industry I\u2019m pointing out here is container shipping. The investment case isn\u2019t as strong as luxury and airlines, but there are signs that conditions have steadied following months of deterioration, making the industry one to keep an eye on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shipping rates skyrocketed during the pandemic as socially distancing consumers, flush with stimulus money, spent their earnings on goods instead of services. This resulted in days-long delays at ports across the globe. But since the peak in September 2021\u2014when the cost to ship a forty-feet equivalent unit (FEU) hit an incredible $11,000, according to the Freightos Baltic Index\u2014global rates have been in freefall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In China, these rates appear to have found a bottom. In the logarithmic chart below, you can see that the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has turned up for four straight weeks, the longest upward trajectory since December 2021. Outside of another global event, rates aren\u2019t returning to pandemic-era levels anytime soon, but the move is constructive. Shanghai is the world\u2019s largest port, so I consider its data to be a leading indicator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"362\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-have-container-shipping-rates-bottomed-04212023-1.png\" alt=\"Have Container Shipping Rates Finally Bottomed?\" class=\"wp-image-189517 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-have-container-shipping-rates-bottomed-04212023-1.png 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-have-container-shipping-rates-bottomed-04212023-1-700x282.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-have-container-shipping-rates-bottomed-04212023-1-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/COMM-have-container-shipping-rates-bottomed-04212023-1-768x309.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/362;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Morgan Stanley also sees a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.freightwaves.com\/news\/morgan-stanley-sees-freight-upcycle-nearing\">freight upcycle nearing.<\/a>&nbsp;In a quarterly survey, shipping companies said they expected global freight demand to improve this year. Nearly three out of four carriers believed inventories would normalize in 2023, with almost half saying it would happen in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted April 24, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/chinas-resurgence-fuels-the-luxury-market-air-travel-and-shipping\/\">China\u2019s Resurgence Fuels The Luxury Market, Air Travel And Shipping<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Citi Economic Surprise Indices measure data surprises relative to market expectations. A positive reading means that data releases have been stronger than expected and a negative reading means that data releases have been worse than expected. The STOXX Europe 600 Index is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index (TMI) and is a subset of the STOXX Global 1800 Index. With a fixed number of 600 components, the STOXX Europe 600 Index represents large, mid and small capitalization companies across 17 countries of the European region. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reflects the spot rates of Shanghai export container transport market. It includes both freight rates of 15 individual shipping routes and a composite index. The CAC 40 is a free-float market capitalization-weighted index that reflects the performance of the 40 largest and most actively traded shares listed on Euronext Paris, and is the most widely used indicator of the Paris stock market. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) provides 40\u2032 container (FEU) indices for ocean freight. The FBX flagship index is a weighted average of the twelve underlying regional route indexes. Each individual index trade lane is represented by 5-7 of the major ports of each region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03\/31\/23):&nbsp;Hermes International, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, Air France-KLM, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Ryanair Holdings PLC, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chinese economic data blew expectations out of the water last week, reflecting a strong comeback for the Asian giant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":189519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[216,11267,3221,3332],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":["post-189516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-macro","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-china","tag-china-economy","tag-economic-data","tag-travel","contributors-categories-us-global-investors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China\u2019s Resurgence Fuels 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