{"id":189319,"date":"2023-04-25T11:40:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-25T15:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189319"},"modified":"2023-04-25T11:43:47","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T15:43:47","slug":"what-the-options-market-is-expecting-for-microsoft-and-alphabet-earnings-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-the-options-market-is-expecting-for-microsoft-and-alphabet-earnings-2\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Options Market is Expecting for Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This afternoon has the potential to be a market mover.&nbsp; We are expecting earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) after the close.&nbsp; These two companies (three stocks) represent about 10% of the weight of S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) and over 20% of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX).&nbsp; Like it or not, if these two companies move in synch, there is a strong likelihood that they <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/narrowing-leadership-raises-the-stakes-for-earnings-season\/\">could push the whole market<\/a> up or down with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is more that binds these companies than simply timing and size.&nbsp; They are #1 and a distant #2 in search, and both have attracted extra attention during the recent focus on artificial intelligence (AI).&nbsp; MSFT jumped out to the lead with a <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/so-are-we-all-switching-to-bing\/\">splashy purchase of a stake in ChatGPT<\/a>.&nbsp; That led to a significant bump in the stock price \u2013 pushing MSFT\u2019s market cap up by far more than their investment \u2013 and causing it to outperform GOOGL in the time period since.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-months-msft-red-green-bars-googl-blue-line\"><strong><em>3-Months, MSFT (red\/green bars), GOOGL (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"344\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture5-7.png\" alt=\"3-Months, MSFT (red\/green bars), GOOGL (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-189327 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture5-7.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture5-7-700x257.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture5-7-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture5-7-768x282.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/344;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks to the AI enthusiasm contributing to both companies\u2019 solid performance, as of now, there are many traders willing to speculate that the next move is up.&nbsp; The most active MSFT contract in yesterday\u2019s trading was the 300 calls expiring Friday.&nbsp; Today\u2019s most active contract in either Alphabet class is GOOGL 110 calls expiring Friday, followed closely by the 111 calls with the same expiry.&nbsp; Traders seem particularly hopeful that both stocks can rise over 6% from current levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet there is much more to both of these behemoths than hope about AI, and those factors should be highly relevant to a wide range of technology companies.&nbsp; We should be learning about trends in ad spending, cloud computing, and software and hardware purchasing.&nbsp; For that reason, what we hear from MSFT and GOOGL has the potential to spill well beyond just these two companies and the indices that they dominate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not surprisingly, based upon the enthusiasm for upside calls, we see a very symmetrical skew in MSFT options expiring this week along with implied volatilities that are generally in line with historical results.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>MSFT Skew, April 28 (dark blue), May 5<sup>th<\/sup> (light blue), May 19<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow) Expirations<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"626\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture4-7.png\" alt=\"MSFT Skew, April 28 (dark blue), May 5th (light blue), May 19th (yellow) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-189326 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture4-7.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture4-7-700x468.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture4-7-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture4-7-768x514.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/626;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg data, MSFT averages 3.68% post-earnings moves.&nbsp; Yet that is dragged down by a -0.59% response last quarter.&nbsp; Prior to then, we had -7.72%, +6.69% and +4.81% moves.&nbsp; The roughly 80% annualized implied volatilities for near-money options are of course well above MSFT\u2019s, but are also broadly consistent with historical data.&nbsp; The symmetrical skew is also echoed in the symmetrical view shown by the IBKR Probability Lab:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for MSFT Options Expiring April 28th<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"389\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture3-10.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for MSFT Options Expiring April 28th\" class=\"wp-image-189325 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture3-10.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture3-10-700x291.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture3-10-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture3-10-768x319.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/389;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GOOGL options reflect something similar to MSFT with symmetrical skew and implied volatilities in line with prior outcomes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>GOOGL Skew, April 28 (lilac), May 5<sup>th<\/sup> (purple), May 19<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow) Expirations<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"640\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-18.png\" alt=\"GOOGL Skew, April 28 (lilac), May 5th (purple), May 19th (yellow) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-189323 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-18.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-18-700x479.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-18-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture2-18-768x525.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/640;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg data, GOOGL averages 4.65% post-earnings moves, and like MSFT, that figure is pushed down by a -2.75% response last quarter.&nbsp; Prior to then, we had -9.14%, +7.66%, -3.67% and +7.52% moves.&nbsp; The roughly 60% annualized implied volatilities that we see for near-money options are consistent with those results.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the symmetrical skew is echoed in the symmetrical view shown by the IBKR Probability Lab:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for GOOGL Options Expiring April 28th<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"393\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-24.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189321 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-24.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-24-700x294.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-24-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Picture1-24-768x322.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/393;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bottom line, investors are taking both MSFT and GOOGL earnings roughly in stride.&nbsp; They are not so sanguine that they are pushing implied volatilities below the levels that one might expect from these companies\u2019 recent reactions to earnings, but there is a general absence of risk aversion as well.&nbsp; To a large extent, that echoes the lack of concern shown by the market as a whole, as evidenced by <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-is-vix-telling-us-today\/\">persistently low levels<\/a> of major volatility measures like the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).&nbsp; This afternoon we will take a key step to learn whether the recent complacency and lack of volatility remains justified.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This afternoon has the potential to be a market mover.  We are expecting earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) after the close.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":185556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[565,267,564,1244,1926],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-189319","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-alphabet","16":"tag-earnings","17":"tag-google","18":"tag-microsoft","19":"tag-options","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What the Options Market is Expecting for Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This afternoon has the potential to be a market mover. 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