{"id":189155,"date":"2023-04-24T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189155"},"modified":"2023-04-24T13:11:51","modified_gmt":"2023-04-24T17:11:51","slug":"weekly-market-recap-april-24-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-april-24-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: April 24, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NAHB survey increased to 45 in April<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts dropped 0.8% m\/m in March<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prelim. April PMI Composite rose to 53.5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumer confidence<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prelim. 1Q23 GDP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last month\u2019s CPI report showed shelter prices growing at the slowest rate since November 2022 at 0.6% m\/m. Despite still-elevated y\/y growth of 8.2%, this reading was an encouraging sign the CPI measure is finally beginning to factor in the housing market slowdown that started last year. On the back of rising mortgage rates, construction activity cratered in 2H 2022, with housing starts falling by 40% and 14% annualized in 3Q22 and 4Q22, respectively. Most recently, March housing data have come in mixed, pointing toward a stabilizing housing market as opposed to an improving one after very positive February data. Housing starts dropped 0.8% m\/m to 1.42M, slightly above forecasts, while building permits were down 8.8% m\/m with both figures having risen more than 5% year-to-date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, mortgage applications continue to be weak as 30yr fixed mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.4% as of last Friday (but below last fall\u2019s peak of 7.1%). However, mortgage rates may not need to decline significantly for housing demand to stabilize, as higher-for-longer rate expectations may be enough to convince potential buyers to enter the market. Looking ahead, the April NAHB survey increased to its highest level since September, signaling that builders are becoming more optimistic about home buyer activity. While a recession could lead to further declines in demand, the acute drag from housing activity on the economy seems to be behind us. For inflation, the lagged impact of last year\u2019s housing contraction should continue to show up in softer shelter prices as the year goes on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083530-1100x445.png\" alt=\"Housing activity shows early signs of stabilization\" class=\"wp-image-189156 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083530-1100x445.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083530-700x283.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083530-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083530-768x310.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083530.png 1242w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/445;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"590\" height=\"77\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083619.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week\" class=\"wp-image-189157 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083619.png 590w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-24-083619-300x39.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 590px) 100vw, 590px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 590px; aspect-ratio: 590\/77;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 24, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., April 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of April 24, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While a recession could lead to further declines in demand, the acute drag from housing activity on the economy seems to be behind us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":189156,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14272,3221,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-189155","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-cpi-report","14":"tag-economic-data","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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