{"id":189117,"date":"2023-04-21T12:12:46","date_gmt":"2023-04-21T16:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189117"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:13:57","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:13:57","slug":"chart-advisor-supply-hits-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-supply-hits-the-sp-500\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Supply Hits the S&#038;P 500"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/contributors\/54841\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>By&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/contributors\/54841\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>J.C. Parets<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/get.allstarcharts.com\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>All Star Charts<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ Supply Hits the S&amp;P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ Warren Buffett Keeps Winning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ Intermarket Ratios Suggest Lower Yields<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4\/ It\u2019s Not the Time to Cut Sugar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter, which both sells its research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-supply-hits-the-s-p-500\">1\/ <strong>Supply Hits the S&amp;P 500<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s been a relatively&nbsp;quiet week for the major U.S. equity averages and individual market sectors. After a solid&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/rebound.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rebound<\/a>&nbsp;off the March lows, we\u2019re now seeing prices move sideways as stocks digest gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we look at a chart of the S&amp;P 500 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=SP%3ASPX&amp;hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">SPX<\/a>), it makes sense for this type of price behavior to occur at this level. Here is a daily chart&nbsp;of SPX running into&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/resistance.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">resistance<\/a>&nbsp;at its pivot highs from February:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/1-15-1100x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189134 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/546;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This zone near&nbsp;4,175 corresponds with several price peaks since last year. It acted as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/z\/zone-of-support.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">support<\/a>&nbsp;before being violated in the first quarter of 2022. Outside of a few weeks last summer, it has kept a cap on the S&amp;P 500, acting as a clear level of overhead supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The more times support or resistance is tested, the more likely it is to break. If we include the failed move from last August, this is now the fourth test of the 4,170 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It could only be a matter of time until the bulls absorb all the overhead supply and force an upside resolution. If and when that happens, it would&nbsp;mark the completion of a bearish-to-bullish&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/reversal.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reversal<\/a>&nbsp;for one of the most important stock market benchmarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-warren-buffett-keeps-winning\">2\/ <strong>Warren Buffett Keeps Winning<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When we&nbsp;analyze individual stocks, we always check how the largest and most important components are performing because it gives us insight about the market&#8217;s future direction, or at least the direction of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/capitalizationweightedindex.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">cap-weighted<\/a>&nbsp;major averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, we&#8217;re showcasing Warren Buffett&#8217;s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/berkshire-hathaway.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Berkshire Hathaway<\/a>&nbsp;(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=BRK.B&amp;hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BRK.B<\/a>), which just resolved higher from a multi-month base to its highest level in&nbsp;almost a year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/2-15-1100x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189135 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/546;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to its heavy weighting in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/f\/financial_sector.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">financial sector<\/a>&nbsp;and broad indexes, as well as the diversified nature of its business holdings, we often treat BRK as its own index. We&#8217;ve highlighted $320 as a critical level to watch for. Above it, risk could be to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seeing this&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/bellwether-stock.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bellwether stock<\/a>&nbsp;break out and push toward new highs is constructive for the overall stock market. It also bodes particularly well for financials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-intermarket-ratios-suggest-lower-yields\">3\/ <strong>Intermarket Ratios Suggest Lower Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Indecisive,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/rangeboundtrading.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rangebound trading<\/a>&nbsp;persists throughout the bond market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like inflation expectations, yields refuse to roll over. We\u2019re already halfway through the second quarter, and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/investing\/100814\/why-10-year-us-treasury-rates-matter.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">10-year Treasury yield<\/a>&nbsp;holds near the same levels it did last June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this, key intermarket ratios and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/cyclicalstock.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">cyclical assets<\/a>&nbsp;keep hinting toward lower yields. The ratio chart of the small-cap&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/v\/valuestock.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">value<\/a>&nbsp;ETF (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=IWN&amp;hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IWN<\/a>) and small-cap&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/g\/growthstock.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">growth<\/a>&nbsp;ETF (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=IWO&amp;hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IW<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=IWO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">O<\/a>) presents an excellent example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/3-16-1100x561.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189136 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/561;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The IWN\/IWO ratio peaked last spring along with most inflationary assets\u2014including commodities\u2014while the 10-year yield went on to make a higher high in late October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fast forward to today, and small-cap value stocks are breaking down to fresh 52-week lows relative to their small-cap growth peers. This is not the kind of behavior we would expect to see in a rising interest rate environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can add this ratio to our growing list of charts&nbsp;suggesting lower rates could be on the horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-it-s-not-the-time-to-cut-sugar\">4\/ <strong>It\u2019s Not the Time to Cut Sugar<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sugar broke to fresh&nbsp;decade highs today as the uptrend persists for one of the sweetest raw materials on the global commodity market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ve highlighted this chart numerous times over the past six months. Tight&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/consolidation.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">consolidations<\/a>&nbsp;with bullish&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/m\/marketmomentum.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">momentum<\/a>&nbsp;profiles tend to produce significant rallies, as has been the case with sugar futures recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But today, our focus is the completion of a bull&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/f\/flag.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">flag<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/4-14-1100x561.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189137 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/561;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>These short-term&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/continuationpattern.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8924146-20230420&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=042023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">continuation patterns<\/a>&nbsp;tend to last no more than a few weeks and often result in explosive upside resolutions. That\u2019s what we witnessed during today\u2019s session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the pattern turns out to be a half-mast flag, then a logical target could be applied by measuring the preceding rally to the peak of the flag and applying that distance to the pivot low of the pattern upward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless of the price target, the path of least resistance could be even higher for sugar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 20th April 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s been a relatively\u00a0quiet week for the major U.S. equity averages and individual market sectors. After a solid\u00a0rebound\u00a0off the March lows, we\u2019re now seeing prices move sideways as stocks digest gains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14,15,17,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[608,3923,3924,207],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-189117","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commodities","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-futures","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-technical-analysis","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-brk-b","19":"tag-iwn","20":"tag-iwo","21":"tag-spx","22":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart Advisor: Supply Hits the S&#038;P 500<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It&#039;s been a relatively\u00a0quiet week for the major U.S. equity averages and individual market sectors. After a solid\u00a0rebound\u00a0off the March lows, we\u2019re...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189117\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chart Advisor: Supply Hits the S&amp;P 500 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#039;s been a relatively\u00a0quiet week for the major U.S. equity averages and individual market sectors. 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