{"id":189072,"date":"2023-04-20T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-20T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189072"},"modified":"2023-04-20T12:38:10","modified_gmt":"2023-04-20T16:38:10","slug":"q2-2023-investor-conference-events-highlights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/q2-2023-investor-conference-events-highlights\/","title":{"rendered":"Q2 2023 Investor Conference & Events Highlights"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Fed is getting what it wants. Jobless claims are on the rise and inflation is sagging. April\u2019s economic data has clearly drifted toward the \u2018slowdown\u2019 camp despite a decent monthly jobs report back on Good Friday. Earnings season is also underway, and so far, the numbers have not been all that bad according to FactSet. Of course, estimates have come down significantly from last summer\u2019s highs. Still, bottom-line beats have been sharply outpacing misses, but it\u2019s really all about the guidance and collective tone among CEOs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Deteriorating Backdrop<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, words are powerful right now as recession risks ebb and flow. We saw that recently with LVMH discussing how strong China\u2019s reopening has been while domestic technology and manufacturing businesses backup weakness in broad economic gauges such as the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data. Confidence<\/a> in the U.S. is on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Early Clues from Conferences<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, Q2 will no doubt feature important commentary from CEOs and industry leaders at conferences, symposiums, and trade shows. Investors must keep a keen eye on both firm-specific and sector-wide news and forecasts. Earnings releases capture much of the attention with respect to corporate events, however, emerging trends are often discussed first at conferences, and later on the bottom line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower Rates Ahead, But Borrowing Challenges Likely<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

What else is going on that could be the talk at conferences across sectors? Along with an easing inflation picture and a loosening of the employment landscape, the reality of Fed rate cuts later this year along with a weaker U.S. dollar alter the trends seen over the past many quarters. Capital allocation decisions amid an inflection in the fixed income and forex markets may look different. Also, stricter lending standards following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis along with institutional financial fallout in wake of Credit Suisse needing a rescue only further exacerbate tighter credit markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Volatility Pullback<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The good news is that volatility is on the decline. Both the VIX index and the Treasury market\u2019s MOVE gauge have drifted significantly lower since the regional banking saga<\/a> reached a climax in mid-March. Investors have been able to catch their breath so far this quarter, but much uncertainty remains. For example, the Wall Street Horizon Late Earnings Report Index (LERI)<\/a>, which provides a reading on corporate uncertainty by tracking outlier earnings date changes, currently stands at its highest level in two years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Questions to ponder:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n