{"id":188634,"date":"2023-04-17T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-17T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=188634"},"modified":"2023-04-18T11:35:21","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T15:35:21","slug":"is-this-the-start-of-a-new-golden-age-of-gold-mining-deals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/is-this-the-start-of-a-new-golden-age-of-gold-mining-deals\/","title":{"rendered":"Is This The Start Of A New Golden Age Of Gold Mining Deals?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We may be about to enter a new golden age of gold mining deals as explorers and producers seek to capitalize on higher metal prices and gain exposure to other key minerals, including copper, at a time when consolidation in the gold industry vastly trails that of other metals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, major U.S. gold producer Newmont raised its bid for Australian rival Newcrest Mining to $19.5 billion after its earlier bid of $17 billion was rejected. Due diligence is expected to take around four weeks, and if Newcrest\u2019s board and shareholders accept the offer, the acquisition would represent one of the top 10 biggest metal deals ever and the single biggest gold mining takeover, nearly twice the value of last year\u2019s merger between Kirkland Lake and Agnico Eagle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Newmont<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(A note about the chart above: Just today, Teck Resources rejected Glencore\u2019s $23 billion takeover bid,<\/a> calling it \u201copportunistic and unrealistic.\u201d Vancouver-based Teck says it will proceed with plans to spin off its steelmaking coal business, creating two new companies: Teck Metals and Elk Valley Resources. This separation \u201ccreates a significantly greater spectrum of opportunities to maximize value for Teck shareholders\u201d compared to an acquisition by Glencore, says Teck\u2019s Board of Directors Chair Sheila Murray.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time will tell if Newcrest approves of Newmont\u2019s offer, but I believe this could be the start of a much-needed consolidation cycle in the gold industry, one that could potentially benefit shareholders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Is One Of The Most Fragmented Gold Mining Industries<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Back in 2019, many analysts and market participants\u2014myself included<\/a>\u2014heralded Newmont and Goldcorp\u2019s $9.3 billion merger as the beginning of a new era of gold consolidation, and I believe the Newmont-Newcrest deal could serve as a (delayed) continuation of the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The truth is that, compared to other important metals, gold is sorely in need of consolidation. The chart below, courtesy of metals and mining consultancy firm CRU Group, shows the global share of output from each metal\u2019s top 10 producers. Gold is at the bottom, with its top 10 producers responsible for only 28% of global output.<\/a> By comparison, the top 10 iron ore producers generate nearly 70% of the world\u2019s supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Higher gold prices in recent years have not resulted in significantly increased exploration spending. In lieu of that, companies can expand and create shareholder value through mergers and acquisitions (M&A), which allow miners to \u201cincrease their production share, replenish depleting gold reserves and\u2026 lower production costs through relatively less risk,\u201d writes CRU analysts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Copper To Face Ongoing Supply Deficits<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

M&A can also result in metal diversification\u2014one of Newmont\u2019s stated goals in acquiring Newcrest. Copper currently accounts for roughly 25% of Newcrest\u2019s total net revenue, and the company hopes to increase it to 50% of revenue by the end of the decade. As one of the key minerals in the global transition to renewable energy, copper is poised to surge in price in the coming years as demand far outpaces supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, copper mining deals exceeded gold mining deals<\/a> in total value last year, according to a new report by S&P Global. M&A work among copper companies in 2022 totaled more than $14 billion in value, a 103% jump over the previous year, while the combined value of gold deals stood at $9.8 billion, a 48% decrease from 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted April 13, 2023 – Is This The Start Of A New Golden Age Of Gold Mining Deals?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03\/31\/23): Freeport McMoRan Inc., Newcrest Mining Ltd., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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