{"id":188618,"date":"2023-04-17T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-17T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=188618"},"modified":"2023-04-17T10:16:50","modified_gmt":"2023-04-17T14:16:50","slug":"weekly-market-recap-april-17-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-april-17-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: April 17, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline\/core CPI: 5.0%\/5.6% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales: -1.0% m\/m, -0.8% m\/m ex-autos<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Building permits<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 1Q 2023 earnings season is underway, with the large U.S. banks releasing results last Friday. Current analyst estimates are tracking operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.54 ($39.73 ex-financials), representing y\/y growth of 0.4% and a q\/q decline of 1.6%. This estimate reflects slowing demand offsetting the benefits of easing macro headwinds. Despite improved global supply chains and moderating cost pressures, increased recession risk and weak consumer sentiment weighed on demand, and a persistently strong dollar likely limited foreign sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the sector level, these estimates suggest a change in leadership. The boost from the energy sector looks set to fade due to normalizing commodity prices. The current estimate of 7.6% y\/y earnings growth for the sector represents a sharp deceleration compared to recent quarters. In other cyclical sectors, materials earnings will likely contract, while resilient demand for air travel and commercial services should support industrials. The tide may also turn for financials, as moderating loan loss provisions should contribute to positive earnings growth. That said, slowing loan growth, moderating net interest margins and weak M&amp;A activity remain headwinds. The growth sectors are facing headwinds of their own, as falling hardware demand and less advertising and discretionary spending should weigh on information technology and communication services, respectively. Lastly, persistent demand for services and core goods should support both consumer sectors, with consumer discretionary specifically benefiting from China\u2019s reopening as well as strength in travel and lodging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the U.S. economy appears to be edging closer to a recession, current earnings estimates remain too high. While the prospect of lower interest rates has supported equity markets so far this year, volatility may pick up as earnings estimates are revised down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1007\" height=\"401\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091422.png\" alt=\"EPS contribution by sector\" class=\"wp-image-188620 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091422.png 1007w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091422-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091422-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091422-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1007px) 100vw, 1007px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1007px; aspect-ratio: 1007\/401;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"481\" height=\"80\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091457.png\" alt=\"chart and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-188621 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091457.png 481w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-17-091457-300x50.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 481px; aspect-ratio: 481\/80;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted April 17, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., April 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of April 17, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the prospect of lower interest rates has supported equity markets so far this year, volatility may pick up as earnings estimates are revised down.\u200b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":188620,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[15126,2298,15074],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-188618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-1q-2023-earnings","tag-market-recap","tag-u-s-economy","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market 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