{"id":188442,"date":"2023-04-12T10:55:24","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T14:55:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=188442"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:14:03","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:14:03","slug":"chart-advisor-bearish-positioning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-bearish-positioning\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Bearish Positioning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/contributors\/54841\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>By&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/contributors\/54841\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>J.C. Parets<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/get.allstarcharts.com\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>All Star Charts<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tuesday-11th-april-2023\">Tuesday, 11th April, 2023<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ Bearish Positioning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ A (Micro)Strategy for BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ Breaking Even at Old Highs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4\/ USD\/ZAR Braces for a Breakout<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter, which both sells its research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-bearish-positioning\">1\/ <strong>Bearish Positioning<\/strong>#<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/bear.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bearish<\/a> sentiment is alive and well. It\u2019s even showing up in positioning, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/h\/hedgefund.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hedge funds<\/a> holding their largest net short position for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/sp_500_mini.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">E-mini S&amp;P 500<\/a> futures since October 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/1-7-1100x561.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188443 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/561;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, based on the historical record, extreme pessimism like this tends to coincide with significant <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/reversal.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trend reversals<\/a> and market <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/bottom.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bottoms<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This doesn\u2019t necessarily mean the S&amp;P 500 will rip higher tomorrow or even next week, but the conditions could be set for a rally. And from the looks of the chart above, some hedge funds may be caught if and when it happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-a-micro-strategy-for-btc\">2\/ <strong>A (Micro)Strategy for BTC<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With the price of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/investing\/082914\/basics-buying-and-investing-bitcoin.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bitcoin<\/a> powering back above $30,000 for the first time since last June, we could make bullish bets on the space by buying cryptocurrencies, crypto stocks such as Coinbase, or any of the Bitcoin miners. There are also plenty of equity indexes we could use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the more unique strategies for gaining exposure to Bitcoin is via Microstrategy (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=MSTR&amp;hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">MSTR<\/a>) shares. Here is a look at the daily chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/2-7-1100x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188444 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/546;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Price is hitting its highest level since last summer and working up the right-hand side of a base as the 200-day <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/m\/movingaverage.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">moving average<\/a> begins to curl higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While we\u2019ve drawn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/trading\/support-and-resistance-basics\/?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">resistance<\/a> at the level with the most touch points, we would need to see price reclaim the August highs to confirm the completion of this reversal pattern.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With over 140,000 coins, Microstrategy\u2019s Bitcoin holdings are now more valuable than the company itself, with a current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/m\/marketcapitalization.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">market capitalization<\/a> of $3.8 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-breaking-even-at-old-highs\">3\/ <strong>Breaking Even at Old Highs<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ahead of the release of the March <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/consumerpriceindex.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/a>, inflation expectations and yields are at vulnerable levels. Tomorrow\u2019s inflation data could be the catalyst for resolutions in some of these chart patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Below is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate holding above prior cycle highs from 2018:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/3-8-1100x561.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188445 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/561;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We use breakeven rates to give us a read on the market\u2019s expectations for future inflation. As you can see, the 10-year breakeven has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/coiledmarket.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">coiling<\/a> in a tight range above former resistance turned support for some time now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After peaking last April, breakeven rates have been moving sideways as investors try to make sense of inflation data and forecast the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next move. As long as this chart remains above those 2018 highs, we don\u2019t want to write off the chances for a rebound in inflation from here.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, a breach of the 2.17 level would indicate that the worst of rising prices could be behind us\u2026 at least for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-usd-zar-braces-for-a-breakout\">4\/ <strong>USD\/ZAR Braces for a Breakout<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/u\/usdx.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)<\/a> has lost significant ground over the trailing six months. But if the dollar manages to dig in and stage another rally, the U.S. dollar and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/forex\/z\/zar-south-african-rand.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8832408-20230411&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=041123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">South African rand<\/a> pair (USD\/ZAR) could be the first to print new all-time highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the weekly chart of the USD\/ZAR pair:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/4-7-1100x561.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188446 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/561;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar has been in a strong uptrend versus the rand for over a decade. It\u2019s been one base breakout after another, leading to the USD\/ZAR challenging its all-time highs last month.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those former highs coincide with a key extension level, presenting a logical area for USD\/ZAR to digest its recent rally. But the bulls have been persistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If and when they absorb the overhead supply and force a resolution, USD\/ZAR could embark on a fresh leg higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 11th April 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bearish sentiment is alive and well. It\u2019s even showing up in positioning, with hedge funds holding their largest net short position for the E-mini S&#038;P 500 futures since October 2011.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16,17,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[2033,1779,3479,14098,186,3495],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-188442","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-etfs","7":"category-forex","8":"category-futures","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-btc","18":"tag-dxy","19":"tag-e-mini-sp-500","20":"tag-mstr","21":"tag-usd","22":"tag-zar","23":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart Advisor: Bearish Positioning | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bearish sentiment is alive and well. 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