{"id":188290,"date":"2023-04-10T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=188290"},"modified":"2023-04-10T10:49:42","modified_gmt":"2023-04-10T14:49:42","slug":"weekly-market-recap-april-10-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-april-10-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: April 10, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trade balance widened to -$70.5 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Construction spending decreased -0.10% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. economy started 2023 strongly, with many analysts tracking positive real GDP growth for 1Q23. However, as we show in this week\u2019s chart, since late March, the economic data have disappointed and are pointing toward waning momentum in the U.S. economy. As such, the Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow model is currently forecasting 1Q23 GDP growth of 1.5% (SAAR), down from its peak estimate of 3.5% in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the March ISM manufacturing and services PMIs provided a timely read on the outlook for growth. The headline manufacturing reading declined to 46.3, the lowest reading since May 2020, due to decreases in new orders, inventories and employment. Meanwhile, the headline services PMI decreased to 51.2 but remained above the key level of 50, with new orders, business activity and prices seeing notable declines. Switching to the labor market, according to the February JOLTS report, job openings fell 6% to 9.9 million but remain well above the pre-pandemic trend. Furthermore, while total nonfarm quits did increase 3.8% m\/m, we have seen a general downward trend in quits since they peaked in late 2021. Meanwhile, Friday\u2019s employment report echoed a similar message. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in March, well below the long-term average of 6.2%. However, total nonfarm employment only grew by 236k, a notable deceleration from the prior month, and wage growth decelerated to 4.2% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, the question will be whether the Fed interprets these data points as meaningful evidence of economic cooling as they fight to bring inflation back down to 2%. That determination will dictate the forward path of monetary policy, which at a minimum could stay tighter for longer than the market expects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1002\" height=\"401\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093208.png\" alt=\"Recent data points to a softening economy that remains solid overall\" class=\"wp-image-188291 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093208.png 1002w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093208-700x280.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093208-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093208-768x307.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1002px) 100vw, 1002px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1002px; aspect-ratio: 1002\/401;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"488\" height=\"65\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093234.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-188292 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093234.png 488w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/Screenshot-2023-04-10-093234-300x40.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 488px; aspect-ratio: 488\/65;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 10, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., April 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of April 10, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Looking ahead, the question will be whether the Fed interprets these data points as meaningful evidence of economic cooling as they fight to bring inflation back down to 2%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":188291,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3221,2298,1504,15074,12555],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-188290","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-economic-data","14":"tag-market-recap","15":"tag-monetary-policy","16":"tag-u-s-economy","17":"tag-weekly-market-recap","18":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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