{"id":188270,"date":"2023-04-07T10:10:55","date_gmt":"2023-04-07T14:10:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=188270"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:14:04","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:14:04","slug":"chart-advisor-yields-retest-prior-cycle-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-yields-retest-prior-cycle-peak\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Yields Retest Prior-Cycle Peak"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/contributors\/54841\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>By&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/contributors\/54841\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>J.C. Parets<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/get.allstarcharts.com\/?utm_source=chart-advisor&amp;utm_campaign=fwd_chartadvisor&amp;utm_term=27774019&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>All Star Charts<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thursday-6th-april-2023\">Thursday, 6th April, 2023<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ Yields Retest Prior-Cycle Peak<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ Aerospace &amp; Defense Could Be Ready to Take Off<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ Ethereum Reclaims a Key Level<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4\/ Smart Money Buys Palladium<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter, which both sells its research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-yields-retest-prior-cycle-peak\">1\/ <strong>Yields Retest Prior-Cycle Peak<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The 10-year Treasury yield posted fresh six-month lows yesterday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like many&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/risk-asset.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">risk assets<\/a>&nbsp;over the past year, it\u2019s retesting its former 2018 highs. Those former highs near 3.25% mark the peak&nbsp;of the previous cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/1-4-1100x535.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188271 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/535;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This would be a logical level for the decline in yields to pause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, a print below 3.25% could signal a bearish trend&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/reversal.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reversal<\/a>. If and when that happens, long-duration assets such as bonds,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/g\/growthstock.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">growth stocks<\/a>,&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/p\/preciousmetal.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">precious metals<\/a>&nbsp;could stand to benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-aerospace-defense-could-be-ready-to-take-off\">2\/ <strong>Aerospace &amp; Defense Could Be Ready to Take Off<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Although technology stocks have been in the spotlight this year, there are pockets of strength within&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/cyclicalstock.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">cyclical sectors<\/a>&nbsp;that we can\u2019t ignore.&nbsp;Aerospace and defense provides an excellent example as it continues to stand out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The resilience of the Dow Jones U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense Index has been impressive:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/2-4-1100x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188272 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/546;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can see, the index is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/coiledmarket.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">coiling<\/a>&nbsp;in a tight range as it presses against the upper bounds of a multi-year base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If and when the bulls absorb overhead supply, we could expect these stocks to break out and trend higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-ethereum-reclaims-a-key-level\">3\/ <strong>Ethereum Reclaims a Key Level<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to crypto markets, the recent rally off the lows has brought&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/tech\/what-ether-it-same-ethereum\/?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ethereum (ETH)<\/a>&nbsp;back above a critical polarity zone. A shelf of former lows from 2021 has acted as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/resistance.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">resistance<\/a>&nbsp;for the past eight months.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But price is now back above this critical level, printing fresh year-to-date highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/3-5-1100x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188273 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/546;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If Ethereum&nbsp;can hold above its 2021 lows, the damage from this massive topping pattern could be fully repaired as the regime changes in favor of the bulls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It could also favor a bullish outlook for cryptocurrencies in the coming months and quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-smart-money-buys-palladium\">4\/ <strong>Smart Money Buys Palladium<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil and gold have recorded strong upside moves this week. But there&#8217;s another commodity that could be setting itself up for a rally:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/p\/palladium.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">palladium<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/commercial-hedger.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Commercial hedgers<\/a>&nbsp;are holding their largest net&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/l\/long.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">long position<\/a>&nbsp;in history:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/4-5-1100x561.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188274 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/561;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Commercial hedgers represent the strongest hands with the largest positions. You can think of them as \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/smart-money.asp?hid=aa5e4598e1d4db2992003957762d3fdd7abefec8&amp;did=8795079-20230406&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=040623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">smart money<\/a>.\u201d And the smart money is accumulating palladium like never before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notice the sustained trends following similar commercial positions in 2012, 2016, and 2018.&nbsp;The conditions are present for the next leg higher in palladium, and from the looks of it, it could be explosive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 6th April 2023, 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 10-year Treasury yield posted fresh six-month lows yesterday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Like many\u00a0risk assets\u00a0over the past year, it\u2019s retesting its former 2018 highs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21,14,15,17,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[8701,15073],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-188270","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commodities","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-futures","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-technical-analysis","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-ethusd","19":"tag-pa_f","20":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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