{"id":188225,"date":"2023-04-06T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-06T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=188225"},"modified":"2023-04-06T11:06:14","modified_gmt":"2023-04-06T15:06:14","slug":"recession-panic-sends-investors-flocking-to-treasuries-how-low-can-the-10-year-yield-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/recession-panic-sends-investors-flocking-to-treasuries-how-low-can-the-10-year-yield-go\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession Panic Sends Investors Flocking To Treasuries: How Low Can The 10-Year Yield Go?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traders assign a greater likelihood of the Fed keeping&nbsp;rates on hold rather than raising them by 25 basis points in May.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the first week of April, U.S. 10-year yields&nbsp;broke below a multi-year positive trendline that began in August 2020.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. Treasuries are once again serving as a safe haven for investors as they digest gloomy economic data that suggests&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/23\/04\/31680575\/ism-services-pmi-misses-expectations-investors-flock-to-treasuries-defensive-stoc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a recession may be in sight<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both initial and continuing jobless claims were higher than anticipated, at 228K and 1823K, respectively.&nbsp;Additionally, there were disappointing statistics released this week such as the ISM PMIs, ADP, and the JOLTS report, all of which indicated that tighter financial conditions&nbsp;are already harming the U.S. economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The yield on the two-year Treasury note has fallen for five consecutive sessions. This kind of run hasn&#8217;t occurred since July 2021. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have dropped by 85 basis points to 3.25 percent from their March highs, and have reached their September 2022 lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sharp declines in yields, and hence excellent price performance in Treasury bonds, have been supported by expectations of a pause in Fed rate-hiking&nbsp;in May, followed by a set of rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the latest&nbsp;<strong>CME Group<\/strong>&nbsp;Fedwatch, traders assign a greater likelihood of the Fed keeping&nbsp;rates on hold (60%) rather than raising them by 25 basis points (40%) in May, and they have already factored&nbsp;in four rate cuts of 25 basis points by January 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Will the downtrend&nbsp;in U.S. Treasury yields&nbsp;continue, or have we reached a bottom here?<br><em>Also Read:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/23\/04\/31685581\/inflation-is-about-to-plummet-wall-street-firm-says-heres-when-things-should-get-ba\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Inflation Is About To Plummet, Wall Street Firm Says: Here&#8217;s When Things Should Get Back To Normal<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>U.S. 10-year Yields Forecasts: Views From The Street<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Bank of America Securities<\/strong>&nbsp;forecasts 10-year Treasury rates of 3.25% by the end of 2023, in light of a second-half recession and a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/23\/04\/31685581\/inflation-is-about-to-plummet-wall-street-firm-says-heres-when-things-should-get-ba\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">strong disinflationary trend<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ING Groep N.V.<\/strong>&nbsp;sees&nbsp;the 10-year yield in the United States dropping&nbsp;to&nbsp;3% by the end of the year before climbing again in the second half of next year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong>&nbsp;economists have an out-of-consensus&nbsp;forecast&nbsp;on U.S. Treasury yields; they expect the 10-year yield to increase to 4.2% by 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Technical Analysis: US-10 Year Yields May Target 2.88% Next<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"787\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/us10y_2023-04-06_13-50-56_0e998-1100x787.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-188226 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/us10y_2023-04-06_13-50-56_0e998-1100x787.webp 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/us10y_2023-04-06_13-50-56_0e998-700x501.webp 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/us10y_2023-04-06_13-50-56_0e998-300x215.webp 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/us10y_2023-04-06_13-50-56_0e998-768x549.webp 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/us10y_2023-04-06_13-50-56_0e998-1536x1098.webp 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/us10y_2023-04-06_13-50-56_0e998-scaled.webp 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/787;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the first week of April, U.S. 10-year yields&nbsp;significantly broke below a multi-year positive trendline that began in August 2020.&nbsp;Yields have also fallen below both the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages, thus reinforcing the idea of&nbsp;a reversal of the&nbsp;major&nbsp;bullish&nbsp;trend.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Fibonacci retracement analysis, the next key support level might be 2.88%, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the August 2020-October 2022 range.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 6, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/23\/04\/31696716\/recession-panic-sends-investors-flocking-to-treasuries-how-low-can-the-10-year-yiel\">Recession Panic Sends Investors Flocking To Treasuries: How Low Can The 10-Year Yield Go?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the first week of April, U.S. 10-year yields broke below a multi-year positive trendline that began in August 2020. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":188226,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3221,1117,3670],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-188225","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-economic-data","14":"tag-recession","15":"tag-treasury-yield","16":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Recession 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