{"id":187874,"date":"2023-04-03T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-03T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=187874"},"modified":"2023-04-03T10:48:16","modified_gmt":"2023-04-03T14:48:16","slug":"opec-mixes-things-up-to-start-q2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/opec-mixes-things-up-to-start-q2\/","title":{"rendered":"OPEC+ Mixes Things Up to Start Q2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The first quarter ended with a bang. The second quarter isn&#8217;t starting with one, however &#8212; at least not in terms of performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 106 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 127 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is the look of a mixed market, which is seeing OPEC+ mix things up with a surprise announcement that it is going to cut production by about 1.16 million barrels per day starting in May and continuing through the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a pre-emptive move aimed at mitigating further price declines that could result from weakening global demand. So far, so good for OPEC+: WTI crude futures are up 5.9% to $80.13 per barrel and Brent crude futures are up 5.9% to $84.56 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An&nbsp;<em>FT<\/em>&nbsp;report, though, implies that this cut announcement could have some political undertones as Saudi Arabia was reportedly &#8220;irritated&#8221; that the Biden Administration did not purchase oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In any case, oil prices &#8212; and oil stocks &#8212; are headed higher this morning. Dow component&nbsp;<strong>Chevron (CVX)<\/strong>&nbsp;is up 4.2% in pre-market trading and is playing a key role in the outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader market has been supported by some M&amp;A activity highlighted by&nbsp;<strong>Endeavor Group&#8217;s (EDR)<\/strong>&nbsp;announcement that UFC and&nbsp;<strong>WWE (WWE)<\/strong>&nbsp;will combine to form a $21 + billion global live sports and entertainment company and&nbsp;<strong>Extra Space Storage&#8217;s (EXR)<\/strong>&nbsp;acquisition of&nbsp;<strong>Life Storage (LSI)<\/strong>&nbsp;in an all-stock transaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the broader market is on the softer side, keying off the weakness in the mega-cap stocks and a general sense that it may be due for a period of consolidation, having rallied 6.6% since March 13 in spite of a regional banking crisis that many pundits think will lead to a sharp economic slowdown, if not an actual recession that won&#8217;t bode well for earnings prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To that end, the S&amp;P 500 starts the second quarter trading at 18.2x forward twelve-month earnings, which is a 5% premium to the 10-year historical average of 17.2x, according to FactSet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We would suggest a valuation headwind is serving as a bit of a restraint as the second quarter gets underway along with a general wait-and-see stance in front of the March ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET and the March employment report on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 3, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">OPEC+ mixes things up to start Q2<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The first quarter ended with a bang. The second quarter isn&#8217;t starting with one, however &#8212; at least not in terms of performance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[14020,3598,1629,44],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-187874","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commodities","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-market-brief","15":"tag-market-outlook","16":"tag-opec","17":"tag-stocks","18":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>OPEC+ Mixes Things Up to Start Q2 | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The first quarter ended with a bang. The second quarter isn&#039;t starting with one, however -- at least not in terms of performance.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187874\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"OPEC+ Mixes Things Up to Start Q2 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The first quarter ended with a bang. The second quarter isn&#039;t starting with one, however -- at least not in terms of performance.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/opec-mixes-things-up-to-start-q2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-03T15:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Patrick J. 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