{"id":187799,"date":"2023-03-31T12:40:06","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T16:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=187799"},"modified":"2023-03-31T14:47:12","modified_gmt":"2023-03-31T18:47:12","slug":"a-spiderman-quarter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-spiderman-quarter\/","title":{"rendered":"A Spiderman Quarter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As I write this, the first quarter of 2023 has not quite come to a close in the Western Hemisphere, but as of midday on March 31<sup>st<\/sup> I think it\u2019s fair to draw some conclusions about the three-month stretch that we\u2019re about to finish.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If markets indeed climb a \u201cwall of worry\u201d, then most of the world\u2019s equity markets can give Spiderman some competition.&nbsp; We began the year with a solid bounce from deeply oversold levels in December, heavily abetted by US tax-loss selling; saw a phenomenal early bounce thanks to one of the strongest \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/january-effectiveness\/\">January Effects<\/a>\u201d in recent memory; watched that morph into a full-fledged risk-on market thanks to a brief flirtation with \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/disinflation-is-transitory\/\">disinflation<\/a>\u201d and abetted by the widespread adoption of \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/individual-risk-vs-systemic-risk\/\">zero-dated<\/a>\u201d or \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/omg-they-all-have-0dte-options-tomorrow\/\">0DTE<\/a>\u201d options; and weathered a <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/return-of-capital-return-on-capital\/\">banking crisis<\/a>.&nbsp; All of this was accompanied by record <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/once-more-if-you-cant-price-risk-free-assets\/\">volatility in short-term yields<\/a>.&nbsp; Yet here stock markets stand, at or near recent highs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We all know that this has been a positive quarter for most global stock indices.&nbsp; The NASDAQ 100 and Continental European measures led the way, while more commodity sensitive indices like those in Canada and Australia lagged.&nbsp; That hardly seems surprising in a quarter when commodities (other than gold) generally fell.&nbsp; Brent crude and the Bloomberg Commodity Index both fell by a bit less than 7%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold was a winner despite apparent progress in commodity price inflation.&nbsp; We have asserted that gold tends to act more <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/can-we-really-hedge-inflation\/\">like an anti-dollar<\/a> than a true inflation hedge, but gold\u2019s 8.5% rise far outpaces the dollar index\u2019 1% fall.&nbsp; It seems to be more related to investors looking ahead to central banks easing their inflation fights and looking for a safe landing spot during a banking crisis. &nbsp;Or maybe it is simply taking its lead from \u201cdigital gold\u201d with Bitcoin up over 70%.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the huge swings in interest rates that we saw during the quarter \u2013 US 10-Year Treasury yields ranged from 3.37% to 4.05%, while 2-Year yields had staggering 3.77% to 5.07% range (!) \u2013 both of those rates finished the quarter about 35 basis points lower.&nbsp; Market estimates for both peak and year-end Fed Funds ended up in almost exactly the same place as they were when the year began.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There appear to be no shortage of potential worries to be conquered in the quarter ahead.&nbsp; Lets see if Spiderman can continue his climb.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"306\" height=\"601\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-21.png\" alt=\"First Quarter 2023 Performance, selected Indices\" class=\"wp-image-187801 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-21.png 306w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-21-300x589.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 306px) 100vw, 306px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 306px; aspect-ratio: 306\/601;\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If markets indeed climb a \u201cwall of worry\u201d, then most of the world\u2019s equity markets and a wide range of other assets gave Spiderman some competition this quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":187802,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[570,3598],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-187799","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-inflation","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Spiderman Quarter | 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