{"id":187709,"date":"2023-03-30T12:39:29","date_gmt":"2023-03-30T16:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=187709"},"modified":"2023-03-30T12:51:49","modified_gmt":"2023-03-30T16:51:49","slug":"markets-sanguine-ahead-of-key-inflation-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/markets-sanguine-ahead-of-key-inflation-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets Sanguine Ahead of Key Inflation Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Might any of the following describe the Federal Reserve: data dependent; inflation focused; determined?&nbsp; If you said \u201cyes\u201d to any of these, then you should be paying attention to tomorrow\u2019s release of the Core PCE Deflator.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Core PCE Deflator has long been considered the Fed\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=681b8613513c89b3JmltdHM9MTY4MDEzNDQwMCZpZ3VpZD0yYjBlZmM3Yy03NWM0LTY3OTUtMzk3NC1mNzc5NzQ0MzY2OWUmaW5zaWQ9NTQzNA&amp;ptn=3&amp;hsh=3&amp;fclid=2b0efc7c-75c4-6795-3974-f7797443669e&amp;psq=fed%27s+favorite+inflation+gauge&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY25uLmNvbS8yMDIyLzEyLzIzL2Vjb25vbXkvcGNlLWluZmxhdGlvbi1ub3ZlbWJlci9pbmRleC5odG1s&amp;ntb=1\">preferred inflation gauge<\/a>, as they believe it offers the best read on costs facing consumers. &nbsp;I\u2019ll leave it to the economists to bicker about whether the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which compiles the PCE Deflator, or the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles CPI does a better job.&nbsp; Bottom line, if Powell and his colleagues are watching this number, so should we.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The median estimate for the month-over-month rise is 0.4%, according to Bloomberg data.&nbsp; That would be a drop from the prior reading of 0.6%.&nbsp; Although the report is coming on the last day of March, it is February\u2019s data.&nbsp; The inflation reports that arrived earlier this month showed a slow pace of rises than those that we saw in January\u2019s data.&nbsp; Perhaps those were disinflationary, but they came on the heels of a skein of <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/um-about-that-disinflation\/\">higher-than-expected January reports<\/a> and were not enough to dissuade the FOMC from raising rates even while concerned with a banking crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering the stakes, we might expect to see key equity options display some concern.&nbsp; Those would be expressed with higher implied volatilities.&nbsp; When looking at SPY options, we see a bump for options expiring tomorrow, but one can hardly consider them worrisome:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-volatility-term-structure-for-spy-options-today-yellow-yesterday-orange\"><strong><em>Volatility Term Structure for SPY Options \u2013 Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"498\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-20-1100x498.png\" alt=\"Volatility Term Structure for SPY Options \u2013 Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange)\" class=\"wp-image-187711 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-20-1100x498.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-20-700x317.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-20-300x136.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-20-768x348.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-20.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/498;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The implied volatility for options expiring tomorrow actually declined slightly and are now pricing in a move of less than 1%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, we see the low levels persist through April 10, which would be the first day that markets can react to the next Nonfarm Payrolls Report.&nbsp; In a calendar quirk, the data will be released when US equity markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.&nbsp; Since it\u2019s a market holiday, but not a Federal holiday, the government will be open when markets are not.&nbsp; This is hardly unprecedented \u2013 it last occurred in 2021.&nbsp; At that time, we were in a raging bull market, and stocks rose over 1% on both the day prior and the day afterwards, abetted by what was then the latest in a run of much stronger than expected payrolls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a number that could some clarity into the <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/calm-markets-and-cognitive-dissonance\/\">current market conundrum<\/a>.&nbsp; The market expects Fed rate cut but the FOMC sees rates holding steady.&nbsp; If tomorrow\u2019s PCE report comes in above expectations \u2013 or even in line \u2013 it would show inflation at a rate that is well above the 2% target.&nbsp; Might Fed Funds futures adjust to that new data point?&nbsp; It seems as though they should.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are now in the enviable, but seemingly unsustainable position of expecting relative calm on the banking front but somehow expecting rate cuts that are precipitated neither by banking woes nor a hard landing recession.&nbsp; Perhaps we will get some important clarity toward some resolution of that seeming contradiction.&nbsp; But options traders seem to be expecting relative calm ahead of tomorrow\u2019s quarter end instead.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Might any of the following describe the Federal Reserve: data dependent; inflation focused; determined?  If you said \u201cyes\u201d to any of these, then you should be paying attention to tomorrow\u2019s release of the Core PCE Deflator.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":182734,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[15042,570,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-187709","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-core-pce-deflator","14":"tag-inflation","15":"tag-volatility","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Markets Sanguine Ahead of Key Inflation Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Might any of the following describe the Federal Reserve: data dependent; inflation focused; determined? 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