{"id":187617,"date":"2023-03-29T12:38:07","date_gmt":"2023-03-29T16:38:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=187617"},"modified":"2023-03-29T12:53:26","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T16:53:26","slug":"fed-put-talk-resurfaces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fed-put-talk-resurfaces\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Put Talk Resurfaces"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I was minding my business this morning, studying my usual arrays of financial news and charts in search of a topic for today, when my ears perked up.\u00a0A commentator on TV used the phrase \u201cFed Put.\u201d\u00a0 If that is a topic of conversation and a rationale for another round of stock buying, it seems to be my duty to remind people about what this mythical option is all about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For starters, the \u201cFed Put\u201d is a concept, not an actual option.&nbsp; Put options have a defined strike and an expiration date.&nbsp; The \u201cFed Put\u201d is perpetual and has no fixed strike.&nbsp; It instead refers to the tendency for the Federal Reserve to add liquidity to the system and\/or cut rates in times of major financial stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed Put is meant to be \u201cbreak glass in case of emergency,\u201d not \u201clet\u2019s keep the stock market propped up.\u201d&nbsp; It\u2019s systemic disaster insurance, not minor correction insurance.&nbsp; If there is an issue that threatens the stability of the banking system or credit markets, then the Fed reacts. Think of the Fed Put more like fire insurance as than a collision policy.&nbsp; It\u2019s meant to contain conflagrations, not for fender benders. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Fed Put did have a strike, equity investors would grossly overestimate its strike price.&nbsp; Folks often seem to think it\u2019s struck 2-5% below whatever the current price of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) might be. &nbsp;If that were the case, we would have seen it activated in 2022. &nbsp;Think about it.&nbsp; If the Fed was really in the business of protecting equity investors, wouldn\u2019t they have done so last year? &nbsp;<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-fed-put-lives-but-its-never-been-about-stocks\/\">I\u2019ve asserted before<\/a>, and will do so once more, that the \u201cFed Put\u2019s\u201d strike is not only variable and unknown, but it is tied to rates and\/or credit spreads anyway.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is understandable why equity investors might perceive the \u201cFed Put\u201d as their own.&nbsp; It came about as the result of the Crash of 1987.&nbsp; On its 35<sup>th<\/sup> anniversary I gave my <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/happy-35th-birthday-fed-put\/\">first-hand account of witnessing its birth<\/a>.&nbsp; The \u201cFed Put\u201d was indeed prompted by plunging equity prices, but what spurred the Fed into action was that crashing stock prices were causing problems at the banks that financed the clearinghouses and various trading firms. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be sure, stocks benefit from Fed largesse, but that was the only time they were the primary target.&nbsp; Since then, the \u201cFed Put\u201d has only been triggered when other types of systemic risk arose, none of which stemmed directly from the stock market. &nbsp;If we\u2019re talking about the need for the Fed Put, things would need to be markedly worse than they are now \u2013 think banking crisis, repo failure, recession.&nbsp; There are valid reasons to be bullish about stocks, but imminent implementation of the Fed Put shouldn\u2019t be one of them.&nbsp; Nothing good would cause that to occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I recently co-hosted <a href=\"\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/the-center-of-the-investment-solar-system\/\">an IBKR podcast<\/a> with Tony Crescenzi from Pimco.&nbsp; My main takeaway came from a discussion about how short-term rates affect riskier assets.&nbsp; He shared Pimco\u2019s model, which has concentric circles of risk \u2013 repos and Fed Funds in the middle, equities in the outer ring.&nbsp; It occurred to me that too many equity investors see themselves at the center of that solar system, not an outer planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quite frankly, that view is long-outdated when it comes to both astronomy and the Fed Put.&nbsp; As with far too many things that underlie the bullish sentiment for equities \u2013 at least the ones that are based upon a return to rate cuts &#8212; it\u2019s very much a \u201ccareful what you wish for\u201d thing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A commentator on TV used the phrase \u201cFed Put.\u201d  If that is a topic of conversation and a rationale for another round of stock buying, it seems to be my duty to remind people about what this mythical option is all 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