{"id":187603,"date":"2023-03-29T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-29T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=187603"},"modified":"2023-03-29T11:06:51","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T15:06:51","slug":"petrodollar-dusk-petroyuan-dawn-what-investors-need-to-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/petrodollar-dusk-petroyuan-dawn-what-investors-need-to-know\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrodollar Dusk, Petroyuan Dawn: What Investors Need To Know"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>While most investors were trying to gauge the Federal Reserve\u2019s next moves in light of recent bank failures last week, something interesting happened in Moscow.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While most investors were trying to gauge the Federal Reserve\u2019s next moves in light of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/ultra-short-government-bonds-are-rallying-on-bank-contagion-fears\/\">recent bank failures<\/a>&nbsp;last week, something interesting happened in Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During a three-day state visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping held friendly talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a show of unity, as both countries increasingly seek to position themselves as leaders of what they call a \u201cmultipolar world order,\u201d one that challenges U.S.-centric alliances and agreements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among those agreements is the petrodollar, which has been in place for over 50 years. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In case you\u2019re wondering, \u201cpetrodollars\u201d are not a real currency. They\u2019re simply dollars being used to trade oil. Early in the 1970s, the U.S. government provided economic aid to Saudi Arabia, its chief oil-producing rival, in exchange for assurances that Riyadh would price its crude exports exclusively in the U.S. dollar. In 1975, other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) followed suit, and the petrodollar was born.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This had the immediate effect of strengthening the U.S. dollar. Since countries around the world had to have dollars on hand in order to buy oil (and other key commodities such as gold, also priced in dollars), the greenback became the world\u2019s reserve currency, a status formerly enjoyed by the British pound, French franc and Dutch guilder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All things must come to an end, however. We may be witnessing the end of the petrodollar as more and more countries, including China and Russia, are agreeing to make settlements in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. This could have wide-ranging implications on not just a macro scale but also investment portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dawn-for-the-petroyuan\"><strong>Dawn For The Petroyuan?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Putin couldn\u2019t have been more explicit. During Xi\u2019s state visit, he&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/qz.com\/yuan-dollar-china-russia-ukraine-currency-reserves-1850249569\">named the Chinese yuan<\/a>&nbsp;as his favored currency to conduct trade in. Ever since Western sanctions were levied on the Eastern European country for its invasion of Ukraine early last year, Russia has increasingly depended on its southern neighbor to buy the oil other countries won\u2019t touch. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In just the first two months of 2023, China\u2019s imports from Russia totaled $9.3 billion, exceeding full-year 2022 imports in dollar terms. In February alone, China imported over 2 million barrels of Russian crude, a new record high.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"447\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-trade-between-china-russia-03242023.webp\" alt=\"Trade between China and Russia has surged\" class=\"wp-image-187604 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-trade-between-china-russia-03242023.webp 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-trade-between-china-russia-03242023-700x348.webp 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-trade-between-china-russia-03242023-300x149.webp 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-trade-between-china-russia-03242023-768x381.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/447;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Except that now, the yuan is presumably being used to make these settlements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As Zoltar Pozsar, New York-based economist and investment research director at Credit Suisse,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/plus2.credit-suisse.com\/shorturlpdf.html?v=5h1o-8SW-V&amp;t=-6f9o9gxfcir9ldit6fbbldzzx\">put it recently:<\/a>&nbsp;\u201cThat\u2019s dusk for the petrodollar\u2026 and dawn for the petroyuan.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>U.S. Dollar Still The World\u2019s Reserve Currency, But Its Dominance Is Slipping<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before you dismiss Pozsar\u2019s comment as an exaggeration, consider that other major OPEC nations and BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are either accepting yuan already or strongly considering it. Russia, Iran and Venezuela account for about 40% of the world\u2019s proven oilfields, and the three sell their oil in exchange for yuan. Turkey, Argentina, Indonesia and heavyweight oil producer Saudi Arabia have all applied for admittance into BRICS, while Egypt became a new member this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What this suggests is that the yuan\u2019s role as a reserve currency will continue to strengthen, signifying a broader shift in the global power balance and potentially giving China a bigger hand with which to shape economic policies that affect us all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To be clear, the U.S. dollar remains the world\u2019s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks\u2019 official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years, from 72% in 2001 to just under 60% today. By contrast, the yuan\u2019s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016. The Chinese currency accounted for about 2.8% of reserves as of September 2022. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"422\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-total-global-foreign-reserves-03242023.webp\" alt=\"US dollar and Chinese renminbi as a percent of total global foreign reserves\" class=\"wp-image-187605 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-total-global-foreign-reserves-03242023.webp 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-total-global-foreign-reserves-03242023-700x328.webp 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-total-global-foreign-reserves-03242023-300x141.webp 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-total-global-foreign-reserves-03242023-768x360.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/422;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Russia Diversifying Away From The Dollar By Loading Up On Gold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s not all about the yuan, of course. Gold has also increased as a foreign reserve, especially among emerging economies that seek to diversify away from the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, Russia announced that its bullion holdings jumped by approximately 1 million ounces over the past 12 months as its central bank loaded up on gold in the face of Western sanctions. The bank reported having nearly 75 million ounces at the end of February 2023, up from about 74 million a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"401\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-russia-buying-gold-03242023.webp\" alt=\"Russia announces buying 1 million ounces of gold since invasion of Ukraine\" class=\"wp-image-187606 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-russia-buying-gold-03242023.webp 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-russia-buying-gold-03242023-700x312.webp 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-russia-buying-gold-03242023-300x134.webp 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/COMM-russia-buying-gold-03242023-768x342.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/401;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-term-implications-for-investors\"><strong>Long-Term Implications For Investors<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The implications of the dollar potentially losing its status as the global reserve are numerous. Obviously, there may be currency risks, and a decrease in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds could result in rising interest rates. I would expect to see massive swings in commodity prices, especially oil prices, which could be an opportunity if you can stomach the volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold would look exceptionally attractive, I think. A significant decrease in the relative value of the dollar would be supportive of the gold price, and I would be surprised not to see new highs. It\u2019s for reasons like these that I always recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical bullion and the other 5% in high-quality gold mining equities. Be sure to rebalance at least on an annual basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted March 27, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/petrodollar-dusk-petroyuan-dawn-what-investors-need-to-know\/\">Petrodollar Dusk, Petroyuan Dawn: What Investors Need To Know<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While most investors were trying to gauge the Federal Reserve\u2019s next moves in light of recent bank failures last week, something interesting happened in Moscow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3497,1056,255,5339,2464],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":["post-187603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-chinese-yuan","tag-crude-oil","tag-gold","tag-petroleum","tag-us-dollar","contributors-categories-us-global-investors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Petrodollar Dusk, Petroyuan 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