{"id":187590,"date":"2023-03-29T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-29T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=187590"},"modified":"2023-03-29T11:50:15","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T15:50:15","slug":"what-a-glimpse-of-light","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-a-glimpse-of-light\/","title":{"rendered":"What? A Glimpse of Light?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

TLDR:<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But soft, what light through yonder window breaks? Is that Juliet? No, it\u2019s an economic recovery!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Citi<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Refinitiv<\/p>\n\n\n\n


In this column we expressed a consistently bearish bias – and for good reason we might say: weak eps, expensive valuations, QT, and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when we see data that goes against this narrative, we\u2019re very keen to dig deeper into it. And recently we\u2019ve noted quite a barrage of supportive data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Citi Economic Surprises<\/a> is on a tear (pictured smiling in the image above). US ISM Manufacturing New Orders<\/a> recovered to 47. And US ISM Services New Orders<\/a> rose back to 62.60.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh la la! Is that a recovery?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That might mitigate any worries about sharp selloffs in the short term, also helped by, you know, $420bn of QE fresh off the oven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep an eye on the earnings of S&P 500<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What stocks are doing well today?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This section is powered by Open AI connected to TOGGLE AI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for all your feedback! This section is still paused but an enhanced version is on the way (we promise)! ????<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TOGGLE Leading Indicators: TLI the lone bullish indicator<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

TLI remains in the bullish camp, whilst all other indicators remain in the mid-range. Where from here? In all cases when TLI was bullish the market found a bottom – at least until another indicator came to invert the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n