{"id":186983,"date":"2023-03-17T12:50:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-17T16:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186983"},"modified":"2023-03-17T15:36:06","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T19:36:06","slug":"fear-of-missing-out-vs-actual-fear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fear-of-missing-out-vs-actual-fear\/","title":{"rendered":"Fear of Missing Out vs. Actual Fear"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A telling news story caught my eye this morning: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-03-17\/world-s-biggest-etf-adds-7-3-billion-in-day-after-bank-rescues?sref=UQoV8r0O\">$7.3 billion flowed into the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF<\/a> Trust (SPY).&nbsp; That was the biggest inflow in nearly two and a half years, with the prior high coming after the November 2020 announcement of a Covid vaccine.&nbsp; It was not an isolated phenomenon \u2013 a wide range of equity and bond ETFs saw inflows yesterday.&nbsp; What surprised me was not the flows per se, but their magnitude.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The announcements of relief packages for struggling First Republic (FRC) and Credit Suisse (CS) led to a big rally in US stocks.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) rose about 1.75 and the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) jumped more than 2.5%.&nbsp; The intraday moves were even larger, since both indices were selling off for the first hour of the day.&nbsp; There is no question that investors should have reacted positively to news that appears to have stemmed the global banking crisis, at least for now.&nbsp; But a stampede seems excessive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ferocity of the inflows tells us that investors continue to have more fear of missing a market bounce than they fear the potential for the banking crisis to metastasize.&nbsp; FOMO, or fear of missing out, is mis-named.&nbsp; It\u2019s about greed, not actual fear.&nbsp; Thanks to recency bias, investors are more likely to remember the \u201cbuy-the-dip\u201d lesson that was reinforced during most of the last decade &#8212; especially 2020-21 \u2013 than the last banking crisis in 2007-2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Banking crises are like roach infestations.&nbsp; If you see one roach, you can reasonably assume that there are many more that are hiding nearby.&nbsp; At the beginning of last week, we learned that Silvergate (SI) would be winding down their operations.&nbsp; By the end of the week, Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) had failed.&nbsp; And over the weekend, regulators shut down Signature Bank (SBNY).&nbsp; It was understandable why investors became very skittish about owning stocks and bonds in regional banks.&nbsp; We noted that people had become much more concerned with <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/return-of-capital-return-on-capital\/\">return OF capital rather than return ON capital<\/a>.&nbsp; Crises have a way of doing that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If it were obvious that the banking crisis was well and truly behind us, then yesterday\u2019s ETF stampede would make perfect sense.&nbsp; But today\u2019s activity tells us that is far from the case.&nbsp; FRC and CS are both down substantially today along with several of their peers.&nbsp; Even if we can confidently believe that all deposits are now implicitly guaranteed, even those above the $250,000 FDIC insurance cap, there must be immense pressure on the CFOs of companies large and small to reduce their exposure to small and mid-size banks.&nbsp; This may be especially acute ahead of the end of the quarter in two weeks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is encouraging to see that regulators are actively seeking a solution to the troubles in the banking system.&nbsp; But they are using the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2023\/03\/13\/the-fdic-response-to-svb-is-just-a-bandaid-for-the-problem-says-interactive-brokers-steve-sosnick.html?&amp;qsearchterm=sosnick\">financial equivalent of bandages<\/a> rather than the strong medicine of massive monetary accommodation.&nbsp; Even as the Federal Reserve took on billions in deposits, which is modestly expansionary, they <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/h41\/20230316\/\">continued to reduce<\/a> the securities holdings on their balance sheet and are considered to have a 70% chance of hiking rates next week.&nbsp; Oh, and the ECB raised rates by 50 basis points yesterday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, we\u2019re neither truly done with the banking crisis nor clear signals of an end to a restrictive monetary policy regime.\u00a0 There was enough good news to raise investors\u2019 spirits yesterday, but they didn\u2019t seem sufficient to justify sort of inflows that accompany a secular turnaround.\u00a0 The extra justification came from another day when FOMO outweighed actual fear.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A telling news story caught my eye this morning: $7.3 billion flowed into the SPDR S&#038;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).  That was the biggest inflow in nearly two and a half years, with the prior high coming after the November 2020 announcement of a Covid vaccine.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":114537,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14920,1841,1685,9717],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-186983","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-bank-sector","15":"tag-fomo","16":"tag-macro","17":"tag-spdr-sp-500-etf","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fear of Missing Out vs. Actual Fear | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A telling news story caught my eye this morning: $7.3 billion flowed into the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). 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