{"id":186811,"date":"2023-03-15T12:39:45","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T16:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186811"},"modified":"2023-04-05T11:32:22","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T15:32:22","slug":"withdrawals-real-and-metaphysical","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/withdrawals-real-and-metaphysical\/","title":{"rendered":"Withdrawals \u2013 Real and Metaphysical"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bank runs occur when nervous depositors attempt to withdraw their funds en masse.&nbsp; But I will assert that a different sort of withdrawal is causing the recent run of market jitters \u2013 markets that became addicted to the plentiful liquidity supplied by the world\u2019s central banks on a continual basis for nearly 15 years are now feeling the pain caused by its withdrawal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To be clear: by no means do I want to minimize or trivialize the excruciating process of substance withdrawal.&nbsp; I\u2019m blessed to only know of it second-hand.&nbsp; So I apologize if the metaphor is insensitive or seems inapt, but after careful thought, it\u2019s the best I can come up with.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Easy money upsets investors\u2019 equilibrium regarding fear and greed.&nbsp; Low rates require them to take greater risks to earn returns on their investments.&nbsp; The process can be slow and insidious. &nbsp;It\u2019s not as though conservative investors turn into gamblers overnight; instead we see a general willingness of all sorts of investors to take on slightly more risk.&nbsp; A corporate bond manager might take on some weaker credits than normal or pay a tighter spread to Treasuries.&nbsp; A value stock investor might add more growth stocks to a portfolio.&nbsp; A stock trader who uses momentum strategies might begin speculating with options.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Writ large, that allows inordinate amounts of money to flow into sometimes unusual corners of the investable universe.\u00a0\u00a0 Like actual water, financial liquidity seeks the lowest level.\u00a0 When both fiscal and monetary policy were \u201cset to 11\u201d, pumping out money at record paces in 2020-2021, investments of all types rose and certain highly speculative corners of the market flourished.\u00a0 Ask yourself would we have seen momentum stocks soar the way they did without the pandemic stimuli?\u00a0 How about meme stocks, SPACs, or cryptocurrencies?\u00a0 Of course not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have already seen substantial declines in the extreme examples mentioned above, along with all sorts of stocks and bonds, as investors adjusted to the withdrawal of liquidity by global central banks.&nbsp; Rate hikes and quantitative tightening are of course the main culprits.&nbsp; As the rates on risk-free assets rose, it raised the valuation hurdles for essentially all investments.&nbsp; We\u2019ve asserted frequently \u2013 <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/once-more-if-you-cant-price-risk-free-assets\/\">most recently last Friday<\/a> \u2013 that if markets can\u2019t agree on the price of low-risk assets like short-term Treasuries, it is incredibly difficult to find a consensus on riskier assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And now we find ourselves dealing with what most investors consider their safest, most risk-averse asset \u2013 bank deposits.\u00a0 By definition, we hold onto cash or cash equivalents when we don\u2019t want to have that portion of our portfolio bear any market risk.\u00a0 That is why the events at Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY) shook markets so deeply on Monday.\u00a0 We acknowledged that investors\u2019 nervousness showed that for many, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/return-of-capital-return-on-capital\/\">return OF capital far outweighed return ON capital<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 This morning\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/financial-shares-fall-as-credit-suisse-becomes-latest-crisis-for-the-sector\/ar-AA18EKPG\">news about Credit Suisse<\/a> (CS) did nothing to assuage anyone\u2019s fears.\u00a0\u00a0 Banking crises make people nervous.\u00a0 They always have.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, yesterday\u2019s FOMO-driven bounce shows that not all of our old bad habits have been fixed.&nbsp; There was a well-deserved feeling of relief, based upon the idea that the SIVB crisis might be contained.&nbsp; But when that morphed into a full-blown, broad-based speculative rally it became evident that traders remain more concerned that they might miss an upswing rather than being sure that the worst of the crises might truly be behind us.&nbsp; Once again, our admonition that \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bear-market-rallies-are-short-sharp-and-ferocious\/\">bear market rallies are short, sharp and ferocious<\/a>\u201d rings true.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At some point this crisis will pass.&nbsp; But until we see a final resolution, banks and investors alike will experience pains from the systemic withdrawal of liquidity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bank runs occur when nervous depositors attempt withdraw their funds en masse.  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