{"id":186583,"date":"2023-03-13T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-13T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186583"},"modified":"2023-03-13T12:19:09","modified_gmt":"2023-03-13T16:19:09","slug":"weekly-market-recap-march-13-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-march-13-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: March 13, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls rose by 311K, vs. expectation for +223K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hourly earnings rose 0.2% m\/m and 4.6% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial jobless claims rose to 211K, a 21K increase<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Job openings decreased to 10.8M from 11.2M<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI (Wholesale prices)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite many layoff announcements, the recent unemployment rate and job openings figures, 3.6% and 10.8m respectively, continued to signal tightness in the labor market. Beneath the surface, there is actually less strength than meets the eye with wages failing to keep pace with inflation the past 23 months. With that said, in his Congressional testimony last week Chair Powell mentioned the need for wage growth to continue decelerating in order to gain confidence that core services inflation excluding housing is finally showing signs of softening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wage growth is a critical data point given its relationship with core services prices. Statistical analysis shows that wage growth has a more discernable impact on core services inflation than the unemployment rate. On Friday, we saw average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees increase 0.2% month-over-month in February and 4.6% year-over-year. This is the second slowest monthly wage growth we have seen since March 2021. While trending in the right direction, in the long run, wage growth closer to 3.5% would be required to achieve and sustain the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target. A wider mosaic of labor market statistics shows a broad deceleration, but compensation growth remains at elevated levels. As a result, the Fed is signaling that it is likely to take rates higher and keep them there for longer than previously expected. While the bond market is now better pricing in this path for rates, the equity market may see some volatility ahead given the increased odds that the Fed goes too far and ends up pushing the economy into recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1012\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101301.png\" alt=\"Wage growth is decelerating, but is still too high for comfort\" class=\"wp-image-186584 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101301.png 1012w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101301-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101301-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101301-768x307.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1012px) 100vw, 1012px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1012px; aspect-ratio: 1012\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"488\" height=\"159\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101322.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-186585 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101322.png 488w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-13-101322-300x98.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 488px; aspect-ratio: 488\/159;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted March 13, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of March 13, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While trending in the right direction, in the long run, wage growth closer to 3.5% would be required to achieve and sustain the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":186584,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,2298,3761,3825,12507],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-186583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-macro","tag-market-recap","tag-nonfarm-payrolls","tag-us-economic-data","tag-wage-growth","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - 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