{"id":186548,"date":"2023-03-10T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-10T17:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186548"},"modified":"2023-03-14T13:21:35","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T17:21:35","slug":"once-more-if-you-cant-price-risk-free-assets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/once-more-if-you-cant-price-risk-free-assets\/","title":{"rendered":"Once More, If You Can\u2019t Price Risk-Free Assets&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Just 24 hours ago, I was fully expecting that my piece for today would be about the monthly Payrolls report.&nbsp; That changed quickly!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-payrolls-report\/\">yesterday\u2019s piece was published<\/a>, just after noon EST, traders seemed to be focused on whether we would get another higher-than-expected jobs number and whether there would be revisions to offset last month\u2019s huge upward surprise.&nbsp; We noted that options on SPY, and by extension the S&amp;P 500 Index, were somewhat complacent about downside risks.&nbsp; Boy did that change in a hurry.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What separated yesterday\u2019s selloff from a garden-variety decline was the move in short-term fixed income.&nbsp; We\u2019ve seen 2% market declines before, and we undoubtedly will again.&nbsp; But a 20 basis point drop in 2-year Treasury yields meant that there was a rush out of risky assets and into risk-free counterparts.&nbsp; That is a hallmark of a flight to safety.&nbsp; Fears of a banking crisis will do that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we see excessive volatility in risk-free assets, how can we expect to <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/if-safe-assets-are-getting-clobbered-risk-assets-dont-stand-a-chance\/\">avoid it in risky assets<\/a> like stocks?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As with many major moves, things started slowly, then got out of hand very quickly.&nbsp; The selloff in SVB Financial (SIVB), the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, caused investors to reconsider the safety of other banks.&nbsp; Prior to this week, we had no idea that they were so in need of liquidity that they needed to sell their bond holdings at a $1.8bn loss.&nbsp; We had no idea how much they would need to mark down their illiquid holdings.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, bank stability, either at an individual bank level or collectively, depends upon confidence, and confidence can be quite fragile.&nbsp; That confidence was shaken yesterday, with KRE, the S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF, down over 8% and the KBW Bank Index (BKX) down by 7%.&nbsp; XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which contains heavy weighting of both systemically important banks and other non-bank financial companies, was down just over 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At some level this should not have been too surprising.&nbsp; Banks tend to borrow short-term \u2013 through demand deposits or money markets \u2013 and lend longer-term \u2013 mortgages and other loans.&nbsp; An inverted yield curve upends the traditional profitability of those activities by causing the marginal cost of deposits above those of existing loans.&nbsp; Worse, demand deposits can leave in a hurry, but a loan portfolio can be difficult to price and sell.&nbsp; It seems inevitable that there might be casualties of the Fed\u2019s hiking cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is reasonable to expect that financial stocks will continue to be volatile, with skittish traders reacting to headlines and rumors about a wide range of banks.&nbsp; But it is hard to see the broader market remain stable when we see things like 2-year yields having a 50bp high-low move over two days and Fed Funds futures odds of 50bp hike going from 20%, to 75%, then 50% in the course of a week.&nbsp; Risk asset pricing models utilize risk-free rates as a fundamental input.&nbsp; If those rates move, so do the values of all other assets and derivatives.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Volatility in risk-free rates begets volatility in riskier assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last Friday, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/sale-on-volatility-aisle-2\/\">we opined that VIX<\/a> and other volatility measures seemed unreasonably sanguine ahead of a week that included Powell\u2019s testimony and payrolls.&nbsp; Admittedly, I didn\u2019t have \u201cbank failure\u201d on my bingo card, but a one-week move in VIX from 18.49 to 24.68 does vindicate that opinion.&nbsp; As we now have VIX at or above the high end of its recent trading range, those who might be speculating that it will fall should pay close attention to 2-year rates.&nbsp; If they fail to calm down, VIX is unlikely to decline substantially.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Just 24 hours ago, I was fully expecting that my piece for today would be about the monthly Payrolls report.  That changed quickly!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":186549,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14901,44,317,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-186548","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-risk-free-assets","15":"tag-stocks","16":"tag-vix","17":"tag-volatility","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Once More, If You Can\u2019t Price Risk-Free Assets&#8230;<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Just 24 hours ago, I was fully expecting that my piece for today would be about the monthly Payrolls report. 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