{"id":186516,"date":"2023-03-13T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-13T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186516"},"modified":"2023-04-05T12:41:09","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T16:41:09","slug":"americans-work-more-remotely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/americans-work-more-remotely\/","title":{"rendered":"Americans Work More Remotely"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Real estate investors are keenly attuned to the Fed\u2019s efforts to curb inflation. The Real Estate Index Funds are down over the past year, lagging the S&amp;P500 which is \u20136% and the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) which is \u20131%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rising rates have cooled the hot property market that the Fed\u2019s bond purchases caused following the pandemic. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/finance-and-economics\/2023\/03\/01\/americas-property-market-suggests-recession-is-on-the-way\">Economist<\/a>&nbsp;believes real estate is signaling an imminent recession. An economic slump has been forecast for months even though hiring remains strong. Last month\u2019s unemployment showed the startling resiliency in the job market. In my experience recessions rarely arrive when expected, and don\u2019t start with 3.4% unemployment. Acknowledging the fortunate failure so far of doomsayers, the WSJ explained \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/godot-recession-federal-reserve-powell-d50ba71f?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">Why the Recession Is Always Six Months Away<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-1-1030x579-1.jpg\" alt=\"100% of S&amp;P real estate companies offering negative guidance\" class=\"wp-image-186522 lazyload\" title=\"Blog Image March 8 2023 1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-1-1030x579-1.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-1-1030x579-1-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-1-1030x579-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-1-1030x579-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But real estate companies are getting more cautious. Forward guidance for 1Q23 was negative for all 26 members of the S&amp;P500, and 20 of them revised down their full year outlook. Property may be a good long term inflation hedge, but rising mortgage rates and a realization that hybrid work is becoming permanent are substantial headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-22-1030x579-1.jpg\" alt=\"Rooms per person in a home, selected countries\" class=\"wp-image-186521 lazyload\" title=\"Blog Image March 8 2023 22\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-22-1030x579-1.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-22-1030x579-1-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-22-1030x579-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-22-1030x579-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/as-americans-work-from-home-europeans-and-asians-head-back-to-the-office-db6981e1\">Wall Street Journal<\/a>&nbsp;recently reported that US office occupancy is around 40-60% of pre-pandemic levels compared with 70-90% in Europe and the Middle East. Asia is even higher, at 80-100%. This is partly due to American homes being bigger, averaging 2.4 rooms per person compared with other rich countries that are generally below 2.0 and average 1.7 across the OECD. If you live in Hong Kong which must be close to 100% apartments, going to the office and grabbing dinner afterwards is understandably more appealing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two years ago we converted the formal living room of our house, rarely used and little more than a furniture showroom, into my office. My wife didn\u2019t share my enthusiasm for more efficient use of our home, but it\u2019s the best office I\u2019ve ever had. You can see it in our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/sl-advisors.com\/\">company video<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-3-1030x579-1.jpg\" alt=\"Average daily one-way commute in minutes, selected cities\" class=\"wp-image-186520 lazyload\" title=\"Blog Image March 8 2023 3\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-3-1030x579-1.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-3-1030x579-1-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-3-1030x579-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-3-1030x579-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For 25 years I endured a daily commute of 75 minutes each way (or more) from New Jersey to New York City. Transit infrastructure in many US cities is often inadequate, and inferior to other big cities around the world. Like tens of millions, I have first hand experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now I walk downstairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It helps that America is a big country. Covid caused us to spread out. There is a lot of available space. But bigger homes mean longer commutes which is another reason Americans are happier working remotely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-4-1030x579-1.jpg\" alt=\"Renewable infrastructure vs pipelines, annual returns\" class=\"wp-image-186519 lazyload\" title=\"Blog Image March 8 2023 4\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-4-1030x579-1.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-4-1030x579-1-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-4-1030x579-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-4-1030x579-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Real estate may be performing poorly, but it\u2019s not yet attractively valued. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ftserussell.com\/products\/indices\/nareit\">FTSE Nareit Index<\/a>&nbsp;which covers the US commercial real estate industry yields 4.3%, less than two year treasuries and midstream energy infrastructure. It\u2019s close to its ten year average EV\/EBITDA multiple, whereas energy infrastructure is 28% cheap. One measure of the real estate sector\u2019s rich valuations is that its current multiple is almost 2X the pipeline sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wells Fargo has estimated that around half midstream\u2019s EBITDA is derived from pipeline contracts that have explicit inflation linkage, usually via the PPI or CPI (see&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/sl-advisors.com\/pipelines-still-linked-with-inflation\">Pipelines Still Linked With Inflation<\/a>). For energy infrastructure investors, inflation raises the value of the real assets they own as well driving commensurate increases in tariffs. Few investments offer the potential to so readily maintain their value with inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many innumerate climate extremists assert that solar and wind are the cheapest way to generate electricity. Nonetheless, running a profitable renewables business is surprisingly difficult. Last month wind turbine manufacturer Siemens Gamesa, which calls itself \u201cthe global leader in offshore power generation,\u201d announced a quarterly loss of $967million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BP has moderated an earlier pledge to reduce emissions and its production of oil and gas, because that\u2019s where the returns are highest. Along with Shell, because they\u2019re based in Europe both companies are more vulnerable to pressure from activists. Recently the market has perceived flexibility in their energy transition goals, because traditional energy is so profitable. Their stocks have performed well as a result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-5-1030x579-1.jpg\" alt=\"Renewable infrastructure vs pipelines, annual returns\" class=\"wp-image-186518 lazyload\" title=\"Blog Image March 8 2023 5\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-5-1030x579-1.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-5-1030x579-1-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-5-1030x579-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-5-1030x579-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Renewable infrastructure has been an especially poor investment. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businesswire.com\/news\/home\/20221219005039\/en\/Kayne-Anderson-Launches-the-Kayne-Anderson-Renewable-Infrastructure-Index-in-Collaboration-With-SP-Dow-Jones-Indices\">Kayne Anderson Renewable Infrastructure Index<\/a>&nbsp;is flat since 2018 (earliest available data) compared with midstream energy infrastructure which has returned 6.9% pa over the same period. We\u2019re biased towards natural gas infrastructure because that\u2019s where we believe the returns are most attractive. When windmills can offer similar cash flow visibility, we\u2019ll take a closer look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, it\u2019s increasingly clear that when it comes to hard assets, or infrastructure, traditional energy is the place to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-6-1030x579-1.jpg\" alt=\"American Energy Independence Index Returns\" class=\"wp-image-186517 lazyload\" title=\"Blog Image March 8 2023 6\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-6-1030x579-1.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-6-1030x579-1-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-6-1030x579-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Blog-Image-March-8-2023-6-1030x579-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 8, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/sl-advisors.com\/americans-work-more-remotely\">Americans Work More Remotely<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The information provided is for informational purposes only and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular service, security or product is suitable for their investment needs. The information contained herein is not complete, may not be current, is subject to change, and is subject to, and qualified in its entirety by, the more complete disclosures, risk factors and other terms that are contained in the disclosure, prospectus, and offering. Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy,&nbsp; completeness or timeliness of this information. Nothing provided on this site constitutes tax advice. Individuals should seek the advice of their own tax advisor for specific information regarding tax consequences of investments.&nbsp; Investments in securities entail risk and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a recommendation nor an offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>References to indexes and benchmarks are hypothetical illustrations of aggregate returns and do not reflect the performance of any actual investment. Investors cannot invest in an index and do not reflect the deduction of the advisor\u2019s fees or other trading expenses. There can be no assurance that current investments will be profitable. Actual realized returns will depend on, among other factors, the value of assets and market conditions at the time of disposition, any related transaction costs, and the timing of the purchase. Indexes and benchmarks may not directly correlate or only partially relate to portfolios managed by SL Advisors as they have different underlying investments and may use different strategies or have different objectives than portfolios managed by SL Advisors (e.g. The Alerian index is a group MLP securities in the oil and gas industries. Portfolios may not include the same investments that are included in the Alerian Index. The S &amp; P Index does not directly relate to investment strategies managed by SL Advisers.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This site may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; \u201cbelieve,\u201d \u201cexpect,\u201d \u201canticipate,\u201d \u201cshould,\u201d \u201cplanned,\u201d \u201cestimated,\u201d \u201cpotential\u201d and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio\u2019s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involves a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of SL Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. r<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Certain hyperlinks or referenced websites on the Site, if any, are for your convenience and forward you to third parties\u2019 websites, which generally are recognized by their top level domain name. Any descriptions of, references to, or links to other products, publications or services does not constitute an endorsement, authorization, sponsorship by or affiliation with SL Advisors LLC with respect to any linked site or its sponsor, unless expressly stated by SL Advisors LLC. Any such information, products or sites have not necessarily been reviewed by SL Advisors LLC and are provided or maintained by third parties over whom SL Advisors LLC exercise no control. SL Advisors LLC expressly disclaim any responsibility for the content, the accuracy of the information, and\/or quality of products or services provided by or advertised on these third-party sites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be suitable or profitable for a client\u2019s investment portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance of the American Energy Independence Index is not indicative of future returns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bigger homes mean longer commutes which is another reason Americans are happier working remotely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":186522,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,7669,7335],"contributors-categories":[13626],"class_list":{"0":"post-186516","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-macro","14":"tag-remote-work","15":"tag-work-from-home","16":"contributors-categories-sl-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Americans Work 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