{"id":186439,"date":"2023-03-09T12:48:59","date_gmt":"2023-03-09T17:48:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186439"},"modified":"2023-03-14T13:20:55","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T17:20:55","slug":"what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-payrolls-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-payrolls-report\/","title":{"rendered":"What to Expect When You\u2019re Expecting the Payrolls Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the first time in quite a while we have a monthly Payrolls report on the second Friday of the month rather than the first one.&nbsp; While the calendar may be quirky, traders\u2019 focus on employment numbers is not.&nbsp; Because \u201cmaximum employment\u201d is part of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/in-plain-english\/the-fed-and-the-dual-mandate\">Federal Reserve\u2019s dual mandate<\/a> \u2013 alongside \u201cprice stability\u201d \u2013 we have no choice but to pay close attention to the data that will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key reports are the change in Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings for February.&nbsp; The consensus estimates and prior readings are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td>Consensus<\/td><td>Prior<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Change in Nonfarm Payrolls<\/td><td>225,000<\/td><td>517,000<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Unemployment Rate<\/td><td>3.4%<\/td><td>3.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Average Hourly Earnings MoM<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is important to recall what a stunner the January numbers were.&nbsp; They put an abrupt halt to a stunning three-day rally spurred largely by Chair Powell\u2019s comments about disinflation.&nbsp; The 517k increase in Nonfarm Payrolls blew well past the 189k median estimate, the Unemployment Rate was 0.2% below expectations, leading to a generational low, and while Hourly Earnings matched expectations, the December reading was revised up 0.1% to 0.4%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It will be crucial to see whether the January report was aberrational or part of a trend of higher-than-expected payrolls data.&nbsp; Over the past few days Fed Funds futures have ratcheted up the likelihood for a 50bp hike at the March 22<sup>nd<\/sup> FOMC meeting from about 25% to 70%.&nbsp; Tomorrow\u2019s report can spur a major recalibration in either direction; near-certainty of 50bp on stronger prints, reversion to 25bp expectations if labor conditions are softening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I write this, equity indices have given back their early advance that was spurred by this morning\u2019s report of 221k weekly jobless claims.&nbsp; The report was above the 195k expectation and broke a string of sub-200k reports.&nbsp; Traders seem to have remembered that one week does not make a trend and that a volatile weekly number will be quickly superseded in either direction by tomorrow\u2019s more robust monthly report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Options markets show some increasing concern, but hardly any outright worry.&nbsp; The quickest way to see that is that VIX remains below 19.5, but there are other more detailed ways to see that concerns remain generally modest.&nbsp; We will focus on the weekly options expiring tomorrow (oh, by the way, these options become zero-dated tomorrow \u2013 just as every option does on expiration day).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IBKR Probability Lab shows a peak in the 398-400 range \u2013 hardly surprising when SPY is trading just below 399.&nbsp; The symmetry of the curve shows that there is a general lack of specific concern in either direction.&nbsp; I find that curious, considering that a definitive break below key support levels could create an important shift in the market\u2019s reliance upon positive technical trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spy-options-expiring-march-10-2023\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPY Options Expiring March 10, 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"340\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture4-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPY Options Expiring March 10, 2023\" class=\"wp-image-186443 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture4-2.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture4-2-700x254.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture4-2-300x109.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture4-2-768x279.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/340;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have seen implied volatility for SPY options increase substantially in the past few days.&nbsp; It is typical for implied volatilities to rise ahead of \u201cknown unknowns\u201d, events like economic reports or earnings that have well-disclosed release times, but uncertain outcomes.&nbsp; The chart below shows the changes in at-money implied volatilities for SPY options expiring tomorrow and next week (which is a \u201ctriple-witch\u201d quarterly expiration).&nbsp; An at-money implied volatility of 24 implies a roughly 1.5% move tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>SPY Implied Volatilities, March 10th (purple), March 17<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow) Expirations<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"467\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture3-3.png\" alt=\"SPY Implied Volatilities, March 10th (purple), March 17th (yellow) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-186442 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture3-3.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture3-3-700x349.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture3-3-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture3-3-768x383.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/467;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chart below shows the term structure of at-money implied volatilities across all available SPY expirations.&nbsp; We see that all near-term options are elevated above yesterday\u2019s levels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>SPY Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow), Yesterday (March 8<sup>th<\/sup>, orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"641\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture2-4.png\" alt=\"SPY Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow), Yesterday (March 8th, orange)\" class=\"wp-image-186441 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture2-4.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture2-4-700x479.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture2-4-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture2-4-768x526.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/641;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, we see that skew for options expiring tomorrow is relatively flat for below-market options down to the 390 strike.&nbsp; That appears to indicate traders\u2019 view that we will remain well-supported even if the report is market-unfriendly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SPY Skew, March 10<sup>th<\/sup> (purple), March 17<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow) Expirations<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"567\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-4.png\" alt=\"SPY Skew, March 10th (purple), March 17th (yellow) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-186440 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-4.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-4-700x424.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-4-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Picture1-4-768x465.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/567;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bottom line: options traders have ratcheted up their volatility expectations for tomorrow\u2019s report, but not unusually so.&nbsp; A 1.5% move in SPY would not be particularly crazy \u2013 last month\u2019s move was -1.04% &#8212; but the seeming complacency of traders about a trendline break is indeed noteworthy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the first time in quite a while we have a monthly Payrolls report on the second Friday of the month rather than the first one.  While the calendar may be quirky, traders\u2019 focus on employment numbers is not.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":136059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14896,262,2074],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-186439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-payrolls-report","tag-spy","tag-unemployment-rate","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What to Expect When You\u2019re Expecting the Payrolls Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For the first time in quite a while we have a monthly Payrolls report on the second Friday of the month rather than the first one. 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