{"id":186259,"date":"2023-03-07T11:31:40","date_gmt":"2023-03-07T16:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186259"},"modified":"2023-03-09T10:04:18","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T15:04:18","slug":"goldilocks-comes-out-swinging","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-comes-out-swinging\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldilocks Comes Out Swinging"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The early results are in: markets are not at all fans of Federal Reserve Chair Powell\u2019s prepared remarks ahead of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/testimony\/powell20230307a.htm\">his Senate testimony<\/a> (grilling?) today.&nbsp; The two key headlines are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>POWELL SAYS PREPARED TO INCREASE PACE OF RATE HIKES IF NEEDED<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ULTIMATE RATE HIKE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The immediate response by stock and bond traders was predictable.&nbsp; Both asset classes sold off quickly and sharply.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 fell by just under -1%, 2-year rates flirted with 5%, and Fed Funds futures began to price even odds for a 50-basis point hike at the FOMC meeting that begins two weeks from today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These comments are completely in line with a data-dependent Fed.&nbsp; Every major inflation report in February was both up over January and above expectations.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the other recent economic reports were generally positive \u2013 especially regarding employment.&nbsp; In that light, if he hadn\u2019t taken a hawkish tone about rates, we would have been concerned that the idea of Federal Reserve data-dependence would have been, um, not truthful.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As with most initial reactions, they tended to overshoot somewhat.&nbsp; Each of those moves was cut in half once traders heard Powell\u2019s dulcet tones during the early part of the question-and-answer portion.&nbsp; I\u2019d like to think that the bounces were based upon sober reflection about data dependency, but they more likely resulted from the equity market\u2019s love of <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/who-ya-gonna-believe-technicals-or-fundamentals\/\">technical analysis and momentum<\/a> that has induced traders to resume their persistence about buying dips.&nbsp; As I write this, about a half-hour after the testimony began, it is impossible to know where we ultimately finish the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A fairly substantial \u201ctell\u201d about the equity market\u2019s response to the testimony was the general lack of response by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).&nbsp; VIX \u201cspiked\u201d from 18.60 to 19.32 before returning to 18.95 as I type.&nbsp; On the face, it implies that traders are not aggressively seeking volatility protection.&nbsp; In general, that is my explanation for why VIX seems to be mired in a 18-23 trading range.&nbsp; The key institutions that utilize VIX may have largely de-risked their portfolios to the point where they don\u2019t need to use options as a hedge to the degree they needed to at this time last year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it is important to remember how VIX is constructed.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/tradable_products\/vix\/\">According to the Cboe<\/a>, \u201cThe VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&amp;P 500\u00ae Index (SPX\u2120) call and put options.\u201d&nbsp; The 23-37 day options that are used in the calculation should be incorporating the events that are likely to occur during those time periods.&nbsp; We\u2019ve just had a volatility-inducing event pass today.&nbsp; Powell\u2019s testimony is now behind us.&nbsp; One can assert that the volatility associated with the upcoming FOMC meeting has just increased now that we have an open question about 25-50 basis points and some uncertainty about whether the expectations that the chair referred to were market expectations or those implied by the most recent \u201cdot plot.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously, the increased concern about the potential volatility surrounding the next FOMC meeting are relatively muted.&nbsp; Quite frankly, we don\u2019t see too much concern about this Friday\u2019s Payroll report either \u2013 even though it is certainly a key data point for a data-dependent Fed.&nbsp; Markets might remain relatively calm in the short-term, but it is hardly a foregone conclusion that the calm will persist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The early results are in: markets are not at all fans of Federal Reserve Chair Powell\u2019s prepared remarks ahead of his Senate testimony (grilling?) today.  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