{"id":186117,"date":"2023-03-06T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-06T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=186117"},"modified":"2023-03-06T10:53:11","modified_gmt":"2023-03-06T15:53:11","slug":"weekly-market-recap-march-6-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-march-6-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: March 6, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Core durable goods orders: 0.7% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pending home sales: 8.1% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer confidence: 102.9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mfg.\/Services PMI: 47.3\/50.6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>JOLTs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetary policy. After February\u2019s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in a terminal rate of 4.9% and a year-end rate of 4.4%, implying two rate cuts by the end of 2023. However, continued labor market momentum, surging retail sales and strong CPI and PCE prints released in February suggest that the economy and inflation may prove more resilient than initially anticipated. Markets are now more hawkish, pricing in a terminal rate of 5.4% and no cuts until 2024. This implies three hikes with the possibility of a fourth at the July meeting. Notably, persistent inflation fears have materialized in Europe as well, and markets now expect the European Central Bank to hike to a terminal rate of 3.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In February, markets suffered as investors grappled with the prospect of higher rates for longer. The S&amp;P 500 fell 2.6%, while the 2-year Treasury yield recently climbed to a cycle high of 4.9% and the 10-year yield breached 4%. Looking ahead, we remain cautious toward equities. Although valuations have improved after February\u2019s sell-off, the S&amp;P\u2019s forward P\/E ratio remains slightly above average levels, indicating that equities may come under further pressure due to higher rates. However, despite the recent back up in yields, we expect the economy will eventually slow, inflation will fall and monetary policy will become looser. Therefore, bonds look attractive at current valuations and once again offer investors income and diversification benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1013\" height=\"400\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102655.png\" alt=\"US implied policy rates\" class=\"wp-image-186132 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102655.png 1013w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102655-700x276.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102655-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102655-768x303.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1013px) 100vw, 1013px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1013px; aspect-ratio: 1013\/400;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"448\" height=\"84\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102719.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-186135 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102719.png 448w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Screenshot-2023-03-06-102719-300x56.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 448px) 100vw, 448px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 448px; aspect-ratio: 448\/84;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 6, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of March 6, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>However, continued labor market momentum, surging retail sales and strong CPI and PCE prints released in February suggest the economy and inflation may prove more resilient than initially anticipated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":186132,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2298,14858,12555],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-186117","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-market-recap","14":"tag-policy-rates","15":"tag-weekly-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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