{"id":185873,"date":"2023-03-02T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-02T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=185873"},"modified":"2023-03-02T10:00:41","modified_gmt":"2023-03-02T15:00:41","slug":"battle-of-the-ages-what-young-vs-old-could-mean-for-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/battle-of-the-ages-what-young-vs-old-could-mean-for-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"Battle of the Ages: What Young vs. Old Could Mean for Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If you listen closely, just below the buzz of today\u2019s headlines, there\u2019s a burgeoning topic that\u2019s about to explode on the scene. It\u2019s been ringing in my ears for a couple of months. The next battle in the global populist war won\u2019t be socio-economic, it\u2019ll erupt from the growing friction between young and old.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The relentless murmuring started with a business trip to London and Tel Aviv. In London, I attended a panel discussion with two former prime ministers of the United Kingdom (UK), Tony Blair and David Cameron. The conversation naturally addressed the challenges the UK faces in the post-Brexit world. Sadly, the UK has suffered through at least three major disasters in the past 15 years \u2014 the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Brexit, and the pandemic. As a result, there\u2019s been some long-term scarring to the UK economy, politics, and society. Chatting with clients and colleagues following the panel, it became clear that as the UK attempts to find solutions to its problems, tensions between the young and old are rising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Later, I met one of my closest friends for lunch. We were neighbors growing up and he now lives in London with his family. It didn\u2019t take long for our conversation to turn to his 90-year-old mother and my 83-year-old father, both physically fit as fiddles but experiencing cognitive decline. So many people in my age group are wrestling with long-term care options for aging parents. A challenge that is only going to multiply for future generations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having lived in London for three years from 2008 to 2011, my visit felt like a homecoming of sorts, one that coincided with China\u2019s lunar new year. Finally free of COVID-19 travel restrictions, more than 200 million unmarried Chinese had returned home to celebrate, only to be peppered with questions from parents and relatives about when they planned to marry and start a family. At the same time, Chinese authorities announced that in 2022, for the first time in 60 years, China\u2019s population had declined.1<\/sup> With fewer taxpaying workers to fund an already strained social welfare and healthcare system, China faces the frightening possibility of growing old before growing rich.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Tel Aviv, the seemingly independent notes in my head started to form a more audible tune. I had been to Tel Aviv once before, more than a decade ago. Today, the horizon was filled with new skyscrapers and cranes developing more commercial and residential properties. On the drive from the airport to my hotel, the construction of the Tel Aviv Light Rail, a mass transit system for central Israel, caught my attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I couldn\u2019t help but contrast the energetic vibe in Tel Aviv with the tension in London. My Israeli colleague reminded me that Israel is about the size of New Jersey and has its fair share of challenges too. But despite the daily disruption and considerable expense, Israel has committed to making the necessary investments to materially improve its infrastructure. And no surprise, almost a third of Israel\u2019s population is under the age of 17 and the median age is about 30, nearly a decade younger than most developed market countries.2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That nagging ringing in my head didn\u2019t go away when I returned home. In early January, it took 15 ballots to elect Kevin McCarthy as the Speaker of the House of Representatives \u2014 the most since before the Civil War. On January 19, the US breached the debt ceiling again, forcing the Treasury Department to start taking extraordinary measures to keep the government afloat and setting up another showdown between Republicans and Democrats this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In mid-February, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released \u201cThe Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023-2033,\u201d which warned that the Treasury Department would exhaust its ability to pay all its bills sometime between July and September. The report also forecast that US budget deficits will average $2 trillion between 2024 and 2033, approaching pandemic-era records by the end of the decade3<\/sup> \u2014 which will likely fuel Republican demands for spending cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 15, former South Carolina governor and United States ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley formerly announced her candidacy for president. The Republican candidate immediately tried to drive home a major difference between herself and her two major competitors \u2014 President Biden and former President Trump \u2014 by controversially suggesting that politicians over 75 years old should be required to take a mental acuity test. Nikki Haley is 51 years old. In one fell swoop, Haley purposefully made age a major issue in US politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, like a thunderbolt it struck me. That constant annoying humming in my head was the unsettling realization that the battle lines between young and old were being drawn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I turn 50 years old later this year. That milestone \u2014 not quite young but not too old \u2014 places me almost perfectly to objectively explore the young vs. old dynamics and the potential implications for investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aging Population Creates Fiscal Fissures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Americans are getting older. The statistics are staggering. In less than two decades older Americans will outnumber children for the first time in US history. According to the US Census Bureau, by 2060, nearly one in four Americans will be 65 years and older, the number of 85-plus will triple, and the country will add a half million centenarians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bigger challenge may be that there will be far fewer younger Americans to care for and support the elderly. For almost three decades, from 1980 to 2007, the US birth rate was stable at about 65-70 births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44. But, since the GFC, the US birth rate has fallen by 20%.4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Businesses are struggling to find qualified, skilled workers in today\u2019s already tight labor market. Despite the demand for skilled workers, the supply of labor remains constrained with the unemployment rate at 3.4%, a 54-year low, and the labor force participation rate stuck in neutral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As a result, there are far fewer younger workers contributing to ballooning entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. These cracks in the foundation may lead to a Grand Canyon sized disaster in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the CBO\u2019s report on the budget and economic outlook for the next ten years paints an equally bleak portrait of the US fiscal position. In the short-term, declining year-over-year government tax receipts combined with skyrocketing interest costs are further complicating an already difficult fiscal situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generous fiscal policies from both Republicans and Democrats have left government spending above its long-term average. When this has happened before \u2014 mid-1980s, mid-1990s, and early 2010s \u2014 negotiations to raise the debt ceiling became a catalyst for deficit reduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s difficult enough to raise the debt ceiling in divided government. Adding in deficit reduction discussions makes the process more challenging and the potential impacts more significant for financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"CBO<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup> Eleanor Olcott, \u201cChina\u2019s singles fight family pressure to get married as population declines,\u201d Financial Times, January 26, 2023.
2<\/sup> \u201cOver 3 million Israelis are younger than 17 \u2013 study,\u201d I24 News, November 16, 2022.
3<\/sup> David Lawder and Richard Cowan, :U.S. could face debt-ceiling crisis this summer without deal, CBO warns,\u201d Reuters, February 15, 2023. Congressional Budget Office\u2019s \u201cThe Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023-2033.\u201d
4<\/sup> Melissa Kearney, Phillip Levine and Luke Pardue, \u201cThe Mystery of the Declining US Birthrate,\u201d Econofact, February 5, 2022.
5<\/sup> Emily Brandon, Why Older Citizens Are More Likely to Vote, US News and World Report, October 20, 2020.
6<\/sup> \u201cFaith in democracy: millennials are the most disillusioned generation in living memory,\u201dBennett Institute for Public Policy, Centre for the Future of Democracy at the University of Cambridge, October 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted February 28, 2023 – Battle of the Ages: What Young vs. Old Could Mean for Investors<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The views expressed in this material are the views of Michael Arone through the period ended February 26, 2023 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and State Street shall have no liability for decisions based on such information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without State Street Global Advisors\u2019 express written consent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The next battle in the global populist war won\u2019t be socio-economic, it\u2019ll erupt from the growing friction between young and 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