{"id":185460,"date":"2023-02-23T12:32:39","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T17:32:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=185460"},"modified":"2023-02-23T13:04:16","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T18:04:16","slug":"buzzword-day-nvidia-and-ai-fomc-and-disinflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/buzzword-day-nvidia-and-ai-fomc-and-disinflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Buzzword Day: Nvidia and AI, FOMC and Disinflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this month we asserted that investors were attuned to certain \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/say-the-secret-word\/\">secret words<\/a>.\u201d&nbsp; Yesterday afternoon we searched for two of them: \u201cDisinflation\u201d in the FOMC minutes, and \u201cAI\u201d in Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) earnings release.&nbsp; Only the latter obliged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of my big regrets was not including \u201cAI\u201d among my secret words.&nbsp; Quite frankly, I have a publication deadline and I ran out of time that day.&nbsp; Investor enthusiasm over Microsoft\u2019s (MSFT) investment in ChatGPT was in full force.&nbsp; Even though some of that specific infatuation has waned, artificial intelligence, or \u201cAI\u201d, has remained an important topic in the investment zeitgeist.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seemingly echoing its role when \u201ccrypto\u201d was at the forefront, NVDA is perceived as a key beneficiary of the potential for widespread adoption of AI.&nbsp; There is a definite logic to this perception.&nbsp; For starters, AI is likely to require significant computing resources and those computers would all require high-performance chips -the kind NVDA makes.&nbsp; Also, many investors take a \u201cgold rush\u201d approach.&nbsp; During the California and Klondike gold rushes, selling supplies to prospectors was a safer and smarter to make money than the actual prospecting.&nbsp; It is quite reasonable to think of NVDA as selling picks and shovels, first to the cryptocurrency gold rush, now to the AI gold rush.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is quite clear that NVDA management is leaning heavily into the AI theme.&nbsp; By my count, <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4580889-nvidia-corp-nvda-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript\">management mentioned \u201cAI\u201d 70 times<\/a>.&nbsp; They mentioned it 37 times even before the first question was asked!&nbsp; Investors were already enthusiastic about the company\u2019s earnings beat &#8212; $0.88 versus a $0.81 consensus estimate \u2013 and rosy revenue guidance of $6.5bn, which is above the $6.35 estimate.&nbsp; Yet the emphasis on AI supercharged an already positive response.&nbsp; The stock initially rose about 7% on the numbers, but is now 13% higher this morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market\u2019s love of AI certainly helps distract investors from an important factor.&nbsp; This is a growth company that is not actually growing.&nbsp; Last quarter\u2019s revenues are 17% lower than a year ago and EBITDA is about a third of last year\u2019s, yet the stock price is essentially unchanged from a year ago.&nbsp; As of now, AI\u2019s promise has not translated into the type of sales and profits that NVDA experienced during the crypto craze.&nbsp; But perhaps it could.&nbsp; That is the bet that investors are making when they pay nearly 100x trailing earnings or 50x estimated EPS.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now let\u2019s move onto the Federal Reserve.&nbsp; Recall how stocks and bonds responded on February 1<sup>st<\/sup> during Chair Powell\u2019s post-FOMC press conference.&nbsp; Both were selling off until the Chair used the word \u201cdisinflation\u201d.&nbsp; The first mentions were in response to a question about last quarter\u2019s deceleration in wage and price growth, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20230201.pdf\">when he stated<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So I would say it is a good thing that the disinflation that we have seen so far has not come at the expense of a weaker labor market. But I would also say that that disinflationary process that you now see under way is really at an early stage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets perked up almost immediately, with stock and bond prices taking another leg higher with each of his subsequent 13 mentions of that word.&nbsp; The rallies continued apace on the next day, accompanied by record options volume (abetted heavily by so-called <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/the-games-havent-changed-the-casino-opened-more-tables\/\">&#8220;zero-dated\u201d or \u201c0DTE\u201d contracts<\/a>) before ending with a thud with the following day\u2019s Payrolls report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering how much of an impact the word \u201cdisinflation\u201d had on asset prices, it was tempting to search for it in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcminutes20230201.pdf\">minutes of the last FOMC meeting<\/a>.&nbsp; We count 91 mentions of \u201cinflation.\u201d&nbsp; Not a single one contained the prefix \u201cdis\u201d.&nbsp; Zero, zilch, nada.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/disinflation-is-the-new-neutral\/\">At the time, we noted that<\/a> the market\u2019s reaction to \u201cdisinflation\u201d was similar to its reaction to the term \u201cneutral\u201d in July.&nbsp; In both cases, those were the words that spurred significant rallies.&nbsp; At least the word \u201cneutral\u201d showed up <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcminutes20220727.pdf\">twice in the July minutes<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After last week\u2019s higher than expected CPI and PPI reports, along with this morning\u2019s release of 4<sup>th<\/sup> quarter Core PCE at 4.3% (above the 3.9% estimate), I will assert that disinflation has so far been transitory (to borrow a previous buzzword).&nbsp; Investor\u2019s love of AI may prove a bit more lasting.&nbsp; Hype, oops I mean \u201chope\u201d, springs eternal.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earlier this month we asserted that investors were attuned to certain \u201csecret words.\u201d  Yesterday afternoon we searched for two of them: \u201cDisinflation\u201d in the FOMC minutes, and \u201cAI\u201d in Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) earnings release.  Only the latter obliged.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":185461,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[632,912,14568,314,570,8235],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-185460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-disinflation","tag-fomc","tag-inflation","tag-nvidia","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Buzzword Day: Nvidia and AI, FOMC and Disinflation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Earlier this month we asserted that investors were attuned to certain \u201csecret words.\u201d Yesterday afternoon we searched for two of them:...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185460\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Buzzword Day: Nvidia and AI, FOMC and Disinflation | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Earlier this month we asserted that investors were attuned to certain \u201csecret words.\u201d Yesterday afternoon we searched for two of them: \u201cDisinflation\u201d in the FOMC minutes, and \u201cAI\u201d in Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) earnings release. 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