{"id":185210,"date":"2023-02-17T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-17T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=185210"},"modified":"2023-02-17T11:03:52","modified_gmt":"2023-02-17T16:03:52","slug":"the-dumb-money-is-ecstatic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-dumb-money-is-ecstatic\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u201cDumb\u201d Money is Ecstatic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While market sentiment has hit extremes, it\u2019s mostly the \u201cdumb\u201d Money that is feeling giddy and greedy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the following chart, the red dots highlight periods of excessive optimism among the Dumb Money crowd versus the Smart Money crowd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While there have been a couple of periods of strong momentum that carried the market higher despite over-enthusiasm by the Dumb Money group (no one is wrong all of the time), most periods are characterized by falling or stalling markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have now hit just the thirteenth signal this century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Chart-of-the-Week-02132023-a.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 after Smart\/Dumb Money Confidence Spread cycles &gt; 0.5 to < -0.5\" class=\"wp-image-185211 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>These extreme levels are reached about 10% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the returns are positive, they are just 1\/10th of the performance when the situation is reversed. When Smart Money is bullish and Dumb Money is bearish, the annualized return is 61.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, this is a rare occurrence and something we see just 5% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After a solid start for the year, the excessive reading of this indicator suggests that the market digesting the move or a pullback is highly probable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s time to tighten stops or consider hedges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Chart-of-the-Week-02132023-b.png\" alt=\"Smart money \/dumb money confidence spread\" class=\"wp-image-185212 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted February 13, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/lmtr.com\/the-dumb-money-is-ecstatic\/\">The \u201cDumb\u201d Money is Ecstatic<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While market sentiment has hit extremes, it\u2019s mostly the \u201cdumb\u201d Money that is feeling giddy and greedy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":185211,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1383,2580,910,4109],"contributors-categories":[13677],"class_list":{"0":"post-185210","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-market-sentiment","14":"tag-momentum","15":"tag-sp-500","16":"tag-stock-market","17":"contributors-categories-lamensdorf-market-timing-report"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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