{"id":184631,"date":"2022-11-15T14:47:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-15T19:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=184631"},"modified":"2023-02-10T12:35:17","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T17:35:17","slug":"wholl-be-your-plus-one-when-china-becomes-your-investment-ex","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/wholl-be-your-plus-one-when-china-becomes-your-investment-ex\/","title":{"rendered":"Who\u2019ll Be Your Plus-One? When China Becomes Your Investment Ex"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As geopolitical tensions, and other challenging headwinds intensify, many in the market are shedding their exposure to China and looking more deeply at Asia\u2019s diverse landscape. Matthew Appelstein, CEO of Americas and Head of International Distribution at Eastspring Investments, offers his insights into the region\u2019s valuations, supply chain shifts, exports, and a host of other country-specific changes and opportunities for growth. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Note<em>:<\/em><\/strong><em>&nbsp;Any performance figures mentioned in this podcast are as of the date of recording (October 31, 2022).<\/em><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Who\u2019ll Be Your Plus-One? When China Becomes Your Investment Ex\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=7w4u5-13156b4-pb&amp;from=pb6admin&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=1b1b1b&amp;font-color=ffffff&amp;logo_link=episode_page&amp;btn-skin=c73a3a\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 46<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steven-levine\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hello, and welcome to IBKR Podcasts. I&#8217;m Steven Levine, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers, and your host for today&#8217;s program. We&#8217;ll be speaking with Matthew Appelstein, CEO of Americas and Head of International Distribution, at Eastspring Investments. We&#8217;ll be talking about his insights into Asia\u2019s markets, notably the recent volatility we&#8217;ve been seeing in China, and his view on investments in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, welcome Matthew! Thanks very much for taking the time to do this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you, Steven, for having me here today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I&#8217;m excited. It&#8217;s really been a fascinating, fascinating journey looking at Asia these days. I mean, financial markets in Asia generally seem to be facing some really increasingly challenging headwinds. There\u2019s been geopolitical concerns in China, more aggressive U.S. policy aimed at slowing advancements in Chinese technology \u2013 especially the semiconductor sector. This really appears to have just reverberated across not only manufacturing, but the entire ecosystem where these chips are required: electric vehicles, artificial intelligence \u2013 these are just a couple of examples. There&#8217;s also been some pretty significant currency challenges, given the tightening of monetary policy at major global central banks to combat inflation \u2026 this includes the Fed \u2026 strengthening of the U.S. dollar. So, there&#8217;s just a great deal going on in this region. And so, I thought we could start by asking you what your rationale is for building positions in Asia at this time? Why should investors consider this region, given what appears to be this long list of rising risks?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, Steven, you&#8217;ve got a lot of interesting subjects you just mentioned. So, let&#8217;s start on at a macro level. Asia accounts for half of the world\u2019s population, and by 2030, 53 percent of global Internet users are forecasted to reside in Asia. And in 2050, it&#8217;s going to have 50% of the world&#8217;s wealth \u2013 consumer spending and wealth will be in Asia. So, it&#8217;s a tremendous growth area. Where a lot of developed countries are dealing with slowing population growth, you&#8217;re seeing growth in Asia. So, the first thing to understand on a macro level is there&#8217;s a lot of interesting things happening in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, it&#8217;s also really important to point out that people look at Asia \u2013 they say \u2018Asia\u2019 in a generic sense. You&#8217;ve really got to go behind that. So, there&#8217;s different types of economies in Asia. If we look at really the developed countries like Singapore, [South] Korea, and Japan to the middle-income countries like China and Malaysia, or really true emerging economies like India and Indonesia. So, Eastspring has people on the ground in there. We have locations in 11 different countries in Asia. So, we really have that understanding of \u2018you can&#8217;t look at it generically\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other thing is, it&#8217;s going to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world. So, population growth supports GDP growth, and these two are really intertwined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other thing I&#8217;ll have to say is: The near-term challenges of what we&#8217;re seeing in a global slowdown and decelerating growth in the U.S., Europe, and China \u2026 it clearly is going to impact Asia, but there&#8217;s a lot of opportunities there. If we think about what&#8217;s going on, a lot of the emerging market countries\u2019 balance sheets are in better shape. They&#8217;ve gone through this before. And we think they&#8217;re really prepared to take advantage of the turnaround when it comes. Right? Everything goes through cycles. So, let me kind of break that up into two pieces. It might be really helpful. Let&#8217;s talk about near-term from a near-term valuation perspective, and then longer-term, because there&#8217;s two things I\u2019d say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first thing, and the most important thing \u2026 and if you remember anything I say today on the podcast \u2026 it would be valuations in Asia are some of the most attractive in the world today. So, after a decade of lagging the global peers both on an absolute and relative basis, we think this is an interesting entry point. So, we&#8217;re looking at price to books around 1.5 today. Those are well below historical averages. And if we&#8217;ve looked at this in the past, historically it&#8217;s delivered really strong returns after that. So, that&#8217;s the first thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second thing is, if you look at growth and value, and you bifurcate the two, there&#8217;s a two standard deviation difference in the pricings of a growth stock and value stock today. So, tremendous dispersion in the marketplace. Again, we think that&#8217;s another opportunity in the short-term to take advantage of. And then if you think about what&#8217;s going on in the world \u2013 rising interest rates, COVID-delayed openings\u2026. some of the rich balance sheets over there. We&#8217;re entering a decarbonization era. We&#8217;ve left the digitization era \u2013 all these tech companies really putting technology right in our fingertips. And what you&#8217;re seeing today is a lot of these tech companies have really reached a cap. Governments are concerned about the control that these companies have\u2026. I&#8217;m not saying they&#8217;re not going to continue to grow &#8217;cause they may well continue to grow, but we think the caps on growth are going to be different than before, and you&#8217;re starting to see that with Tencent and Alibaba falling into the value universe from really historically being very large growth stocks. So, what we&#8217;re going to see \u2026 this decarbonization is going to require the rebuilding of the manufacturing infrastructure, which tends to favor Asia, where a lot of the manufacturing is taking place. You&#8217;re going to see new factories created in new places, right? And we&#8217;re seeing people thinking about moving manufacturing closer to the home markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then finally, I would tell you is, as a whole, the world is underexposed to Asia as an area of investment, so we see that as a tremendous opportunity. The percentage of ownership in some of the China markets is the lowest in almost anywhere in the world \u2013 U.S. ownership of those markets. So, tremendous opportunity for investments, which obviously will drive up the PE ratios there. So, in the short-term, that&#8217;s what I see is some short- term valuations, but again, going on the real critical component of valuations are some of the most attractive in the world today in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I just I wonder about this though in terms of growth. There must be certain industries that these countries, say [South] Korea or Japan, or China rely on for their growth. I would think that, for example, a lot of these countries rely on, say, chips for manufacturing them or producing them for their growth \u2026 for their GDP, right? Much in the same way that the U.S. relies on consumerism for its growth. But the importing, say, of the raw materials to make these chips \u2026 the bans that U.S. has imposed on China\u2026. Do you see this not as a short-term erosion that will have a ripple effect down the line for these countries?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Steven, it&#8217;s a really good point. So, I talked to you a little bit about the short-term, so let me pull back and talk about the long-term perspective. We believe in long-term investment horizons, right? We&#8217;re not an advocate of this short-term trading, but if you think of the longer-term, there&#8217;s three big things that are going on in Asia right now, which we think are substantial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One is inter-regional trading. You&#8217;re seeing the emerging market countries trading with each other more. So, something&#8217;s made in China \u2013 they&#8217;re getting some goods from Vietnam, they&#8217;re getting some goods from Indonesia. A lot of the rubber [is] coming from Malaysia. So, that inter-regional trading is growing as a proportion. So, yes, exports matter, but that&#8217;s an important component.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second thing is \u2026 we talked about it \u2026 is decarbonization. So, we need to reduce the carbon footprint. That&#8217;s going to occur a lot in Asia, right? So, that&#8217;s going to require capital, and so you&#8217;re going to see that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third thing is the digitization that we&#8217;ve talked about in the U.S., Asia is a little behind that. So, they still have the benefit of some of the digitization in their countries, and that&#8217;s going to be a helpful long term-trend as they move more into the digitization era. And those three things are really unusual that you have all of that going on at once. Because in the U.S., we&#8217;re not going to benefit as much from the digitization era, because we&#8217;ve gone through that. We&#8217;re at the cycle where that&#8217;s being tamped down. So, I think those long-term trends are really critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other thing that&#8217;s going on right now, too, is \u2026 it&#8217;s called \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/education\/featured-reports\/china-plus-one-strategy.html\">China-Plus-One\u2019<\/a>. So, there seems to be some concerns throughout the world today on China; and, so, China-Plus-One means if I manufacture it in China, I need to have it somewhere else. So, today, there was a shortage in the United States of the imaging dye needed for MRIs, because the main plant where most of the dyes was coming from was in Shanghai, and it was in lockdown. So, that&#8217;s today&#8217;s situation. Tomorrow, what you&#8217;ll see is \u2026 China-Plus-One means I may have it in China, but maybe Indonesia or Vietnam is my backup. So, that \u2018Plus-One\u2019 is going to be big, and that wasn&#8217;t the case two years ago \u2026 five years ago. So, you&#8217;re going to see this kind of rooting effect, where the roots are going to spread out farther, and that&#8217;s where you&#8217;re going to see in Asia that you can bring that manufacturing expertise out of China into another country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second piece of this is \u2026 what&#8217;s going on in the countries of trade \u2026 is you&#8217;re still seeing trade going on with Europe and the U.S., and if China starts to become more inward-looking, the trade in the rest of Asia is going to be more outward-looking to the U.S. That&#8217;s going to have to be picked-up from somewhere. And I think on the chip side, I think it&#8217;s easy to misunderstand or misinterpret what&#8217;s going on with chips. I think the chip issue will be a critical factor in China, where some of our chips are not going to be able to make it there but [The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited] TSMC in Taiwan is going to be shipping the chips to the rest of Asia. So, you almost have to have a bifurcation of what are the two different markets there. So, I just wanted to kind of point out a couple of things that people kind of say there&#8217;s going to be a chip issue. I do think we may have two standards. China will have one, and the rest of the world will have one, like with Huawei but I think the chips in Asia, with Taiwan being so close, and TSMC is actually moving chip manufacturing into Asia and the U.S. So, you&#8217;ll see an additional supply. Obviously, there&#8217;s long lead times, but those are expected to open up next year \u2026 late next year. So, you&#8217;ll see an additional supply of chips in the U.S. and in other places in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a rather political question, but would you suspect that the more, say for example, these bans from the U.S. on Chinese technology advancements take hold, or affect China in some ways, the more challenging it may be for Taiwan to keep its sovereignty?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s a really hard one to interpret, because we think of investments, and we think of investing in the long-term. China has 1.3 billion consumers. That&#8217;s a pretty large market to service. So, the China market \u2013 the number two market in the world behind the U.S. \u2013 it&#8217;s going to be a very robust market if it ultimately just services its own customers. I&#8217;m not saying that is where things are going to end up, but even if that were to be the case, there&#8217;s 1.3 billion consumers. It&#8217;s an aging economy \u2026so, healthcare, healthcare technology \u2026 things like that can really be robust, and companies can do very well servicing those markets. And still, China will be able to trade with Russia and some other countries. So, I think we may be at a friction point right now, but I&#8217;m not sure it means we&#8217;re going to the direction of we&#8217;re going to purely cut off China or not. The political side is it&#8217;s still a robust market. It still has a consumer market three to four times the size of the U.S. &nbsp;There&#8217;s going to be tremendous opportunity there for companies to grow and develop, and the stock prices to grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;d like to talk a little bit about emerging markets in general, because they&#8217;ve been a pretty mixed bag, haven&#8217;t they, for the past few years? How do you position in emerging markets when they all seem to be under pressure? I mean, the dollar itself is, I think, giving a lot of challenges or obstacles for emerging markets, given more expensive dollar-denominated commodities, et cetera, that they may need. But I&#8217;d love to hear your take on what&#8217;s happening with emerging markets and your thoughts there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Steven, we&#8217;re hearing a couple things there, but first let me say if you just think about China, &#8217;cause I think this is important to get on the record. China had a $2 trillion economy back in 2002. By 2022, it&#8217;s an $18 trillion economy. So, tremendous growth. So, this is what I mean about the size of the consumer market there. So, we believe China is here to stay and here to stay for the long-term, right? But when you think about emerging markets, China peaked at 40% of the Emerging Market Index. So, really what that does is it starts to crowd out other countries. Today, It&#8217;s down to 32%. So, what we&#8217;re hearing from our investors \u2013 what we&#8217;re hearing from the institutional marketplace \u2013 is people are looking at emerging markets differently. They&#8217;re saying, \u2018Should I think about emerging markets in a homogeneous approach, or do I need to think about it differently?\u2019 And what I mean by that is we&#8217;re seeing investors saying, \u2018I want to break out my emerging markets into maybe GEM \u2013 Global Emerging Markets \u2013 ex-China, and maybe separate my Chinese investments out. So, today, many managers who have a GEM portfolio that&#8217;s not too concentrated \u2026 not <em>1,000<\/em> stocks \u2026 they may have two or three securities in Mexico, right? They may have one or two stocks in some of the Mideast countries. So, what you&#8217;re doing is \u2026 that crowding effect of having China, and the political risks, and the friction that&#8217;s going on in the world today \u2026 people are bifurcating and breaking out GEM ex-China, and that&#8217;s one of the things we&#8217;re seeing. But it&#8217;s too general to say \u2018GEM\u2019 is\u2019 GEM\u2019. It&#8217;s emerging markets. There&#8217;s so much diversity underneath there, but that&#8217;s the biggest trend that we&#8217;re seeing, Steven, and I think that&#8217;s something that you&#8217;re going to hear more and more about. That is just the beginning. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.swib.state.wi.us\/_files\/ugd\/69fc6d_0764ed90f5f6417dbcaccba59a7146aa.pdf\">State of Wisconsin<\/a> announced within the last six months that they&#8217;re breaking out their GEM mandates into GEM [and] <a href=\"https:\/\/etf.wi.gov\/boards\/joint\/2022\/03\/24\/jm3a\/download?inline=\">GEM ex-China<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, so you&#8217;re starting to see public funds look at that. We&#8217;ve had several U.S. consulting firms come to us \u2013 these are global firms say, \u2018We really need a GEM ex-China portfolio because we have clients \u2026 maybe they&#8217;re in the Midwest \u2026 maybe they&#8217;ve had some bad dealings with China\u2019. They want to separate and break out that allocation. So, that&#8217;s the other thing we&#8217;ve been seeing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s so interesting. It&#8217;s really interesting. I want to also pick up on your mentioning of decarbonization, &#8217;cause you&#8217;ve mentioned that a couple of times, and I&#8217;m very curious about this. We&#8217;ve seen some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/sri-lanka-let-firms-oil-producing-nations-import-sell-fuel-2022-06-28\/\">effects in certain countries<\/a> who have gone very quickly in a certain direction to remove, say, fossil fuels from their landscape, and there&#8217;s been some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pulse.com.gh\/business\/local\/ies-predicts-fuel-shortage-as-ghana-cedi-depreciates-further\/lehkkfb\">volatility<\/a> in those countries where this has happened. How long do you think the trajectory of having a country, say the size of the landmass of <a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/global-net-zero-commitments\/\">China<\/a> or India, would take to completely phase out all fossil fuels, and decarbonize, and build these factories as you&#8217;re saying? And commit to those goals or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/climatechange\/net-zero-coalition\">timelines<\/a> that that they&#8217;ve given for the Paris Agreement to do? I mean, would they meet those goals? Is that something do you think it&#8217;s realistic? Or how do you see this unfolding exactly \u2013 the decarbonization?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What you&#8217;re going to see in Asia is, and today we&#8217;re seeing it \u2026 some of the premier firms in solar, wind \u2026 the manufacturing, and some of the development, is happening in Asia today. So, China has a bigger problem than we have. If you&#8217;ve ever been to Beijing on a normal day, they have a big problem. &nbsp;They need to clean the air up. And, so, it&#8217;s a really big initiative of the Chinese government, and we have a lot of investments in China. We think that&#8217;s one of the areas where the world is really going to rely on China to still produce those type of goods for the rest of the world. It\u2019s not easily replaced \u2013 that manufacturing expertise \u2013 because it&#8217;s pretty complicated \u2026the solar panels, the turbines, the wind, and I think you&#8217;re going to go there. It&#8217;s a goal of China. Today, China sells more cars, produces more solar panels and turbines than any other country, so they&#8217;re really the leader in the renewables area. And as this China-Plus-One continues to expand; you&#8217;ll see that manufacturing moving to other countries. So, I think China is committed to doing that. How quickly that happens, it&#8217;s really a hard one to judge, but the valuations of investing [in] some of these have really come down with the rest of the world. We call it \u2018throwing the baby out with the bathwater\u2019, right? Everybody has been pushed down and that&#8217;s why the valuations are so attractive in Asia today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, this decarbonization is &#8212; the world still needs metals. We still need steel. We still need concrete, but the people that are going to be able to produce that with the least carbon footprint. And that&#8217;s going to be determined by the world\u2019s investors, right? When we think about that, and that&#8217;s what&#8217;s going to happen. So, I think that&#8217;s the opportunity in Asia, where a lot of the world\u2019s manufacturing is today, is who&#8217;s going to be able to do that \u2013 that decarbonization. And I can&#8217;t tell you how long it&#8217;s going to take, but I can tell you it&#8217;s going to create some attractive valuation opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It sounds like there&#8217;s the enormous amount of growth potential. There&#8217;s an enormous amount of focus from countries \u2026 basically worldwide \u2026 that are seeking to decarbonize or lessen their carbon footprint. And if they&#8217;re going to invest in their own infrastructure\u2019s energy \u2026 in solar or wind, it makes sense that those factories would need to be built somewhere, and I suppose, where those raw materials are to build them would be China and other countries within the Asian community. If I understand that right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, so, if you just think Taiwan Semiconductor [TSMC] \u2026 so, they&#8217;re building a plant in the U.S. and Arizona; they&#8217;re building a plant in Japan. Both of those plants are each $12 billion plus investments. So, we&#8217;re talking just from the two plants, $25 billion in building plants outside of China for&#8230; And all these chips are needed for solar, for wind, for e-vehicles, right. So, the investments are going to be really large, and those, in our mind, create really interesting opportunities, because once you have a chip plant in the U.S., all of a sudden you have to create a whole feeder industry around that. The same thing in Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, it&#8217;s amazing \u2013 there&#8217;s such a huge transition that&#8217;s going on, and these outsized moves that these companies are making on the back of the potential growth, or, I mean, obviously, the advancements in technology in general are going to require these chips, like you say. And, so, the potential for growth is really just enormous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s one other factor I should mention too, and I think that&#8217;s something that we&#8217;re \u2026 you know, we&#8217;re on the ground in Asia \u2026 it&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.netsuite.com\/portal\/resource\/articles\/inventory-management\/just-in-time-inventory.shtml\">&#8216;Just-in-Time Manufacturing&#8217;<\/a>, which everybody moved to is really the evolution of that will be: we&#8217;ll be moving away from Just-in-Time. Supply chain breakdowns that we&#8217;ve seen, which many people think is a big cause of inflation today, and shutdowns around the world, especially in China, are going to create more buffers in inventory. So, what we&#8217;re seeing is companies saying, \u2018We need to build up inventory\u2019. So, we think that&#8217;s another part of Asia having to retool, as we get back to some sense of normalcy \u2026 of not just to Just-in-Time Manufacturing, but building-in buffers of manufacturing. So, should there be a shutdown\u2026 &nbsp;should something go on \u2026 we have extra inventory in place. So, we think that&#8217;s going to be a driver in consumer goods \u2026 inventories of raw materials. So, the supply chain disruptions are going to be interesting. So, let&#8217;s take Singapore. Singapore today has a plan to produce 30% of their food through vertical farming techniques, right &#8212; not a lot of land mass there &#8212; by 2030 because they&#8217;ve been historically overdependent on neighbors for food supply. From the food supply, countries are saying, \u2018I need to bring more close to home\u2019. We&#8217;re not just talking about manufacturing. So, these are these going to reverberate, these are going to be different changes \u2026 and then, auto manufacturers, electronic manufacturers, you can&#8217;t wait. If you have to stop production &#8217;cause you can&#8217;t get a part, you&#8217;re going to start stockpiling more of it. And historically, up until COVID, the supply chain has been so efficient that we&#8217;ve been able to get by that. We think of the zero-COVID policy in China today \u2013 that really breaks that down, and nobody knows for sure when that changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;I think you mentioned earlier about inter-regional trade as well, and so that sounds like a shift in supply chains as well \u2013 in terms of how goods are traded across borders these days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the other things that I wanted to make sure people understand is today, the dollar is incredibly strong. When the dollar is as strong as it is today, buying and investing in Asia is \u2026 your dollar buys more. From a from a valuation opportunity, better to buy when the dollar is strong, because, ultimately, at some point, the dollar will move back to a more sense of normalcy. The yen\/dollar exchange rate is at extremes right now. We know that in the U.S. dollar to the euro, to the pound. So, at times when the dollar is very powerful, buying and investing in overseas is cheaper. And then you get the benefit of the appreciating currencies in the future. And so, we see that as another unusual opportunity right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>But let&#8217;s say that the dollar keeps rising. At what point does it become untenable for certain of these Asian countries \u2013 in terms of the creditworthiness of these countries, of the growth of these countries, to contend with a strengthening U.S. dollar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, there&#8217;s two parts to this \u2013 the strengthening U.S. dollar. You&#8217;re focusing on one part of the equation, but there&#8217;s a symbiotic relationship. As the dollar strengthens, the goods that are manufactured in Asia become more attractive to you to buy in the U.S., which actually helps with our inflation issue. So, the countries in Asia are going to benefit by the strong dollar by having cheaper-priced goods to ship to the U.S. It makes their goods more attractive from a trading perspective. So, yes, there is the currency \u2026 there&#8217;s the FX headwind, but there is the benefit of having cheaper currencies, and therefore being able to bring goods to the U.S. at a cheaper price and help the flow of trade. So, these countries do have that outlet to offset what&#8217;s going on the currency side, okay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I said before, remember Eastspring \u2026 we look at ourselves as Asian experts. We live in Asia. We reside in Asia. The balance sheets of many countries in Asia are much stronger than they have been in the past. Japan \u2013 the cash on the balance sheet in the Japanese market is very strong. So, you&#8217;re seeing a lot of companies in Asia well-positioned financially to withstand some of what&#8217;s going on. And if you throw in increasing exports, with this strengthening of the dollar, it&#8217;s a two-edged sword for the U.S., so it allows us to bring in cheaper goods. And it allows us as investors to buy things cheaper to invest in the companies there. So, there&#8217;s two sides of that. So, yes, there will be some financial pain for these companies, but there is a plus side to that. If we look at Japan \u2013 for many years, people worried about Japan and stagflation. And Japan, at one point, used to apologize to their customers for raising prices. Well, today inflation actually in Japan is not such a bad thing, because it allows the Japanese manufacturers and companies to raise prices, something that hasn&#8217;t occurred in Japan in a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, each country \u2026 I started out early to say we can&#8217;t look at Asia as a mass. We have to understand what&#8217;s happening in Indonesia. Several countries in Asia have strengthened raw materials, and the price of raw material strengthening has helped those countries. It&#8217;s a much more detailed understanding. You can&#8217;t say \u2018emerging markets is in trouble,\u2019 because each of the countries can benefit in different ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I completely get it. You&#8217;ve got these idiosyncratic benefits that you would get from specific countries within the region, and that makes a lot of sense to me. This has really been great. Are there other any other points within specific countries, or specific markets, that you think might have growth potential outside of those that we&#8217;ve talked about?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What we&#8217;re seeing is every country has unique opportunities &nbsp;whether it&#8217;s Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore. We&#8217;re seeing Singapore take the lead in clean energy. So, we&#8217;re seeing a lot of really interesting investment opportunities in Asia \u2026 sustainable type bonds coming out of Singapore. So, each country brings different opportunities to it and, if we go back to that premise of these really attractive valuations in Asia today \u2026 the world is underweight investing in Asia, as a whole that we see that as attractive. If you look at price to book at 1.5, that&#8217;s historically a very low number. We just see attractive opportunities, and to us, that&#8217;s the opportunity to spend some time, and understand, and think about that as a really interesting place to invest today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You sort of get it while it&#8217;s hot, I suppose \u2013 the operative words there. I wanted to ask why you think people are underweight Asia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Everybody looks at Asia as China, and that\u2019s probably one of the biggest obstacles you face right now Is China. People look at China and Japan, and then they\u2019re just not sure \u2013what does Indonesia do? What does Vietnam do? And Vietnam is really going to be one of these up and coming\u2026. It has one of the youngest populations in the world, a really large population of employees to work in the factories, and it\u2019s one of the first choices people look at to move out of China is to move into Vietnam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you look at Pottery Barn \u2013a lot of Pottery Barn furniture is now coming from Asia. It used to come from North Carolina, South Carolina in the U.S. Now, it\u2019s coming from China and Asia and as people have an aversion to China, you\u2019re seeing much more come from Vietnam and Thailand and Indonesia. So, it\u2019s fascinating. And so, as you see, people go up the value chain. [South] Korea is where the TV\u2019s come from today, right? I mean, if you want a high-end TV, it comes from it comes from [South] Korea. It doesn\u2019t come from the United States \u2026 doesn\u2019t come from China. So, they\u2019re really building a space higher up in the value chain in Asia. They started out as everybody had their clothes there, right? You pay someone nothing an hour, [but] you have to pay someone more if they\u2019re going to build a TV in a clean factory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Wow, this is great, Matthew! Thank you so much! Thanks so much for taking the time to do this! I wanted to let our listeners know that they can read more market commentary, and analysis, and insights from Eastspring Investments at IBKR Traders\u2019 Insight at tradersinsight.news. They\u2019ve got a lot of fascinating articles there \u2013 some recent topics delve into value investing in Asia, and also Vietnam\u2019s digital boom, and deriving value from Japan\u2019s ESG potential. They\u2019ve got a lot of a lot of great work there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Matthew, thank you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Matthew Appelstein<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Steven, thank you very much for your time today. I look forward to it. And we\u2019re here \u2013 Eastspring Investments \u2013 headquartered in Singapore. We look at ourselves as the Asian experts. We\u2019d be more than happy to help your listeners out, should they have further questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Steven Levine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s really terrific. Thank you so, so much. That\u2019s really great. So, until next time, I\u2019m Steven Levine with Interactive Brokers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Matthew Appelstein, CEO of Americas and Head of International Distribution at Eastspring Investments, offers his insights into Asia\u2019s valuations, supply chain shifts, exports, and a host of other country-specific changes and opportunities for growth. \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":184650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,16,17,10842,18,6,13857,8,9,26,3],"tags":[196,5105,216],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-184631","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-forex","9":"category-futures","10":"category-ibkr-podcasts","11":"category-macro","12":"category-north-america","13":"category-podcasts","14":"category-region","15":"category-securities","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-asia","19":"tag-asian-equities","20":"tag-china","21":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Who\u2019ll Be Your Plus-One? 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When China Becomes Your Investment Ex\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Matthew Appelstein, CEO of Americas and Head of International Distribution at Eastspring Investments, offers his insights into Asia\u2019s valuations, supply chain shifts, exports, and a host of other country-specific changes and opportunities for growth. \u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/wholl-be-your-plus-one-when-china-becomes-your-investment-ex\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-11-15T19:47:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-10T17:35:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/pod-20221031-thumbs-featured.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steven Levine\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Who\u2019ll Be Your Plus-One? 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When China Becomes Your Investment Ex","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/wholl-be-your-plus-one-when-china-becomes-your-investment-ex\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/wholl-be-your-plus-one-when-china-becomes-your-investment-ex\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/pod-20221031-thumbs-featured.jpg","datePublished":"2022-11-15T19:47:00+00:00","dateModified":"2023-02-10T17:35:17+00:00","description":"Matthew Appelstein, CEO of Americas and Head of International Distribution at Eastspring Investments, offers his insights into Asia\u2019s valuations, supply chain shifts, exports, and a host of other country-specific changes and opportunities for growth. \u00a0","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/wholl-be-your-plus-one-when-china-becomes-your-investment-ex\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/wholl-be-your-plus-one-when-china-becomes-your-investment-ex\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/pod-20221031-thumbs-featured.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/pod-20221031-thumbs-featured.jpg","width":1000,"height":563,"caption":"Who\u2019ll Be Your Plus-One? 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