{"id":184361,"date":"2023-01-27T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-27T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/the-hottest-equity-options-class-is\/"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:29:58","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:29:58","slug":"the-hottest-equity-options-class-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-hottest-equity-options-class-is\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hottest Equity Options Class is\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This morning\u2019s <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> features an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/tesla-has-become-one-of-the-hottest-stock-option-trades-on-wall-street-11674777247\">article discussing how Tesla (TSLA) options trading has been surging<\/a>. &nbsp;I was honored to have contributed to the reporting, noting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Traders buying those contracts are \u201calmost evangelical in their belief in Tesla, its technology, and to a certain extent, Elon Musk,\u201d said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers Group Inc. \u201cTesla is unique\u2014it attracts so many speculators because of its cultlike following.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cTesla is perpetually the most active single-stock option at our firm,\u201d said Mr. Sosnick.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/buying-dips-vs-catching-falling-knives-in-tesla\/\">We addressed this topic in late December<\/a> as the stock was plunging.&nbsp; At the time, we noted that our customers had been relentlessly buying TSLA as it fell.&nbsp; Quite frankly, I wish I\u2019d been emphatic in noting that much of the selling was clearly the result of tax-loss selling that would likely abate as the calendar turned.&nbsp; At that time, the volume weighted average price (VWAP) for December was $156.89 versus a then-current stock price of $109.10.&nbsp; It seemed like a big stretch for those faithful investors to recoup their losses.&nbsp; (A few more days of selling brought the final December VWAP to $145.61.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But of course, nothing is truly out of the ordinary with TSLA.&nbsp; Yesterday\u2019s close, after a well-received earnings report, the stock\u2019s 11% rally took it back above the VWAPs referenced above.&nbsp; We noted yesterday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/buy-the-sizzle-sell-the-steak-tesla-ibm\/\">that the results and the conference call were exactly what growth-seeking investors wanted to hear<\/a>.&nbsp; We are currently up over 60% from the stock\u2019s closing low at the start of the month.&nbsp; We were already amidst a ferocious comeback, one that continues apace today.&nbsp; With volatility like this, who can blame options traders for focusing on this name?&nbsp; How about this for some big movement?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tsla-4-month-daily-bars-red-green-with-bollinger-bands-20-days-2-stds\"><strong><em>TSLA 4-Month Daily Bars (red\/green) with Bollinger Bands (20 days, 2 stds)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture7-3-2.png\" alt=\"TSLA 4-Month Daily Bars (red\/green) with Bollinger Bands (20 days, 2 stds)\" class=\"wp-image-174796 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prior to earnings, we looked at what the options market was anticipating.&nbsp; After a couple of relentless up days and furious trading, it remains important to see what options traders might now be anticipating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For starters, options are pricing a return to a much lower volatility regime.&nbsp; Implied volatilities fell sharply yesterday, which is typical after earnings, but they have risen once again after today\u2019s move.&nbsp; Yet by March, options are pricing in a return to daily volatility around 3.75%.&nbsp; It seems quaintly low after the moves of the past two days, but it is roughly in line with TSLA\u2019s long-term historical volatility:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>TSLA Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1 Week Ago (red), 1 Month Ago (purple)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture6-3-2.png\" alt=\"TSLA Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1 Week Ago (red), 1 Month Ago (purple)\" class=\"wp-image-174795 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/tesla-has-become-one-of-the-hottest-stock-option-trades-on-wall-street-11674777247\">WSJ article notes<\/a> that \u201cmany of the biggest options bets on Tesla are lottery-ticket trades.\u201d Those are particularly apparent when we look at long-term expiries, particularly the next two January LEAP expirations, but we see no shortage of extreme bets expressed in nearer-term open interest (and remember, open interest is reported with a one-day lag, so we can\u2019t yet see how the open interest is changing on today\u2019s 10% move).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>TSLA Options Open Interest by Strike, February 17<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow), March 17<sup>th<\/sup> (orange) Expirations<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture5-4-1.png\" alt=\"TSLA Options Open Interest by Strike, February 17th (yellow), March 17th (orange) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-174794 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>TSLA Options Open Interest by Strike, January 2024 (light green), January 2025 (dark green) Expirations<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture4-4-1.png\" alt=\"TSLA Options Open Interest by Strike, January 2024 (light green), January 2025 (dark green) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-174793 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While it\u2019s quite clear that there is some extraordinary enthusiasm priced into TSLA options, there is no shortage of bearishness too.&nbsp; TSLA is a stock that inspires extreme views.&nbsp; Many of them are quite rosy \u2013 even rosier after the past two days \u2013 but not all.&nbsp; I have a feeling this will not be the last time that I find myself discussing this stock and its options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Note: the author has stock and options positions in TSLA.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nothing is truly out of the ordinary with TSLA. We were already amidst a ferocious comeback, one that continues apace today.  With volatility like this, who can blame options traders for focusing on this name?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":182790,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,2397,1926,44,161],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-184361","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-earnings","16":"tag-earnings-season","17":"tag-options","18":"tag-stocks","19":"tag-tesla","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Hottest Equity Options Class is\u2026 | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nothing is truly out of the ordinary with TSLA. 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