{"id":183987,"date":"2023-01-17T16:40:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T21:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/january-effectiveness\/"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:03","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:03","slug":"january-effectiveness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/january-effectiveness\/","title":{"rendered":"January Effectiveness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The \u201cJanuary Effect\u201d is a well-known market phenomenon with a reasonable amount of logic behind it.&nbsp; It theorizes that stocks that were beaten down by tax-loss selling during the latter months of a year can rebound substantially once the calendar turns.&nbsp; The tax code explains not only the desire for investors to lock in losses before a tax year ends, but also why bounces tend to occur only after a delay.&nbsp; The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=96d7c93d4f5942fcJmltdHM9MTY3MzkxMzYwMCZpZ3VpZD0yYjBlZmM3Yy03NWM0LTY3OTUtMzk3NC1mNzc5NzQ0MzY2OWUmaW5zaWQ9NTI3MA&amp;ptn=3&amp;hsh=3&amp;fclid=2b0efc7c-75c4-6795-3974-f7797443669e&amp;psq=wash+sale+rule&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZm9yYmVzLmNvbS9hZHZpc29yL2ludmVzdGluZy93YXNoLXNhbGUtcnVsZS8&amp;ntb=1\">\u201cwash-sale\u201d rule<\/a> highly incentivizes investors to wait 30 days before re-entering an investment in which one has taken a loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we consider the multitude of formerly high-flying stocks that sank sharply into year-end 2022, there were ample opportunities for both tax-loss selling and a sizeable rebound this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The January effect can go a long way to explaining rallies that we are seeing in stocks like Meta Platforms (META) and Amazon (AMZN) over the past couple of weeks.&nbsp; Bearing in mind that 2023 is only two weeks old, their 13% and 16% year-to-date moves are quite impressive.&nbsp; Of course, when the former lost nearly 2\/3 of its value in 2022 and the latter was essentially cut in half during that year, we need to put the current moves in perspective.&nbsp; One can argue that those stocks and a whole raft of similar names, were oversold into late December and ripe for a bounce.&nbsp; Considering that many of the most affected stocks are among the most significant in market-capitalization weighted indices like the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and especially the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), it is logical that we would see those measures bounce as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the January effect appears to be only one piece of the current rally.&nbsp; We are seeing high ratios of advancing to declining stocks on both NYSE and NASDAQ listed names.&nbsp; That indicates broad-based buying.&nbsp; It may be led by January effect stocks, but it is hardly limited to them.&nbsp; The Russell 2000 Index\u2019 (RTY) 7% year-to-date gain outpaces SPX\u2019 4.3% and NDX\u2019 5.8% jumps.&nbsp; It is also important to keep in mind that US markets are relative underperformers.&nbsp; A wide range of European, Asian and emerging markets are accelerating even faster than the US.&nbsp; For example, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (ESTX50) is up over 11% year-to-date.&nbsp; The global rally can hardly be explained simply by US tax policy.&nbsp; Investors around the world are much more willing to assume equity risk than they were just a few short months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why the enthusiasm?&nbsp; At one level, things are not as dire as they might have appeared last autumn. &nbsp;We were very concerned about how the Ukraine invasion would impact energy supplies to Europe ahead of winter.&nbsp; I\u2019m not sure if their freakishly mild winter is a good thing in the long-term, but it certainly has been beneficial from a short-term economic basis.&nbsp; China has relaxed its zero-covid policy, leading many to be enthusiastic about the positive impact of that nation\u2019s reopening on the global economy.&nbsp; Meanwhile, central banks appear to be relaxing their pace of rate hikes, leading many to believe that it harkens a potential return to accommodative policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That strikes me a leap in logic.&nbsp; Less restrictive does not automatically mean accommodative.&nbsp; Ask yourself why a central bank that has gone to historic lengths to fight inflation would immediately reverse its rate hikes.&nbsp; It is quite logical that central bankers might stop raising rates if inflation ebbs, another to simply assume that they will start cutting them without a definitive signal that price pressures have clearly abated.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet the market appears to be assuming that this leap in logic will occur.&nbsp; We have noted that Fed Funds futures are pricing in three 25 basis point rate cuts by this time next year.&nbsp; Based upon what?&nbsp; It is hard to imagine that the Fed will say \u201cmission accomplished\u201d on the inflation front with less than a full year of hard data to that effect.&nbsp; Various Fed talking heads have made their intention to maintain peak rates through year end quite clear.&nbsp; And don\u2019t lose sight of the fact that the Fed and other central banks remain committed to shrinking their balance sheets.&nbsp; We have just about given back all of last year\u2019s balance sheet increase, but that included an end to quantitative easing (QE) and a slow start to quantitative tightening (QT).&nbsp; If we maintain the current pace of QT, we are likely to give back all of 2021\u2019s QE in 2023.&nbsp; That is certainly a restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, a rapidly weakening economy or a major financial accident could justifiably induce the world\u2019s central banks to return to accommodation. &nbsp;But that is at odds with the idea of economic recovery or even a soft landing.&nbsp; It undercuts much of the basis for the recent rally.&nbsp; Investors need to decide if they\u2019re hoping for a solid economy or central bank accommodation.&nbsp; It is hard to imagine getting both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture2-4-2.png\" alt=\"securities held on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet\" class=\"wp-image-173490 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The \u201cJanuary Effect\u201d is a well-known market phenomenon with a reasonable amount of logic behind it.  It theorizes that stocks that were beaten down by tax-loss selling during the latter months of a year can rebound substantially once the calendar turns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":183989,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[14461,4109,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-183987","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-january-effect","18":"tag-stock-market","19":"tag-stocks","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>January Effectiveness | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The \u201cJanuary Effect\u201d is a well-known market phenomenon with a reasonable amount of logic behind it. 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