{"id":183694,"date":"2023-01-04T17:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-04T22:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/some-highlights-and-lowlights-of-2022-part-2\/"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:05","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:05","slug":"some-highlights-and-lowlights-of-2022-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/some-highlights-and-lowlights-of-2022-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Highlights and Lowlights of 2022 \u2013 Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we start 2023 and I take a week off, it seems like an opportune time to look back at our best and worst calls of the second half of 2022. &nbsp;(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/some-highlights-and-lowlights-of-2022-part-1\/\">Part 1 can be found here<\/a>) On balance, I would say we got more correct than not, though I really wish we were more emphatic about some of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before we look backwards, here is my basic outline of what to look for in 2023:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" type=\"1\">\n<li>Volatility is likely to continue as long as the world\u2019s central banks continue to withdraw liquidity.&nbsp; That includes balance sheet reduction, which is likely to continue even after rate hikes cease.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Although Fed Funds futures and the Treasury yield curves imply that rates will be lower in the near-term \u2013 as soon as the second half of next year &#8212; think about the message they send:\u00a0\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A rapid return to a rate cutting regime implies that the economy cools sufficiently to for the Fed to become worried more about a slowing economy than inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If inflation does revert to around 2%, that doesn\u2019t mean that the Fed will reverse its policy.\u00a0\u00a0 They can keep it relatively static if the economy remains healthy.\u00a0 Hence, a hoped-for soft landing does not imply a return to accommodation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That means that the base case for the bond market is an imminent recession.\u00a0 If you\u2019re hoping for a quick reversal of Fed policy, be careful what you wish for.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ideas that \u201cgood news is good news\u201d and vice versa will take greater root as investors increasingly recognize the risk of recession and favor economic results that appear to reduce the likelihood one.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, onto last year\u2019s second half highlights\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/i-wish-i-could-rearrange-earnings-season\/\">I Wish I Could Rearrange Earnings Season<\/a> \u2013 July 12<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cIf I had the power to reorganize earnings season, I would not have the major banks kick off the festivities.\u201d \u201cIt is human nature to try to extrapolate trends from limited data sets, and an early slew of bank earnings offers an unrepresentative small sample of data from which market commentators (present company included) try to divine a trend for the flood of reports that will follow.&nbsp; No other industry\u2019s bottom line is nearly as dependent upon idiosyncratic items like the shape of the yield curve and trading results.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-goldilocks-vix\/\">The Goldilocks VIX<\/a> \u2013 July 14<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cOne of the questions I\u2019m asked most often is why is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) so high or so low.&nbsp; And yes, the question is posed in both directions about equally.&nbsp; I assert that volatility, using VIX as a proxy, is neither too hot nor too cold.&nbsp; It is just about right. The direction of the question is usually a \u201ctell\u201d for whether the inquirer is bullish or bearish about stocks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/been-down-so-long-it-looks-like-up-to-me\/\">Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me<\/a> \u2013 July 15<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201c\u2026 keep these two important factors in mind.&nbsp; First, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/dont-fight-the-fed\/\">don\u2019t fight the Fed<\/a>.&nbsp; Even if we seem ok with a 75 or 100 basis point rate hike, the Federal Reserve still has a restrictive stance.&nbsp; And remember that they have only begun to timidly implement their promised balance sheet reduction.&nbsp; They have been raising the cost of money, by raising rates, but not doing much to shrink the amount of money via quantitative tightening.&nbsp; Second, if we do get a solid rally, remember that bear market rallies are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bear-market-rallies-are-short-sharp-and-ferocious\/\">short, sharp and ferocious<\/a>.&nbsp; If we rally because there appears to be meaningful positive shifts in the economy and central bank stances, then the move higher could indicate a lasting bottom.&nbsp; If we rally from oversold conditions simply because market psychology became too grim, then the rally is likely to be short-lived.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/socially-acceptable-volatility-strikes-again\/\">Socially Acceptable Volatility Strikes Again<\/a> \u2013 July 21<sup>st<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cWe tend to worry about market volatility when we decline by a significant amount but take a similar rise in relative stride.&nbsp; They\u2019re supposed to go up, right?&nbsp; It is important to remember that volatility is a mathematical concept, measuring up and down moves alike.&nbsp; Yet when it comes to market psychology, we know that they are vastly different.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/yay-we-might-be-in-a-recession\/\">Yay, We Might Be in a Recession!<\/a> \u2013 July 28<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cIf you ever doubted that stock traders are a liquidity addicted mob, desperately awaiting any news that might bring them sweet relief from the current phase of withdrawal, yesterday\u2019s rally should put any contrary illusions to rest.\u201d \u201cThe line \u201ca man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest\u201d seemed to perfectly describe traders\u2019 reaction to the Powell presser.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-bond-market-is-sending-a-message-that-stocks-ignore\/\">The Bond Market is Sending a Message That Stocks Ignore<\/a> \u2013 August 5<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201c\u2026the bond market is telling stock traders, pretty much screaming in their faces, that the Fed will not be riding to the rescue anytime soon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/us-investors-making-a-big-parlay-bet\/\">US Investors Making a Big Parlay Bet<\/a> \u2013 August 18<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cThe recent rally in equities implies that we will thread a very tight needle \u2013 that we will we be able to maintain solid earnings growth amidst moderating inflation that will occur with neither aggressive Fed action nor a recession.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/can-goldilocks-in-a-suit-keep-the-bears-away\/\">Can \u201cGoldilocks in a Suit\u201d Keep the Bears Away?<\/a> \u2013 August 25<sup>th<\/sup> [the day before Jackson Hole] &#8212; Before this morning\u2019s bounce I was ready to assert that a dour response was already priced into both the stock and bond markets.&nbsp; Now I am less certain about the former.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/is-the-put-call-ratio-telling-us-anything-meaningful\/\">Is the Put\/Call Ratio Telling Us Anything Meaningful?<\/a> \u2013 September 20<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cMany of us tend to look at the put\/call ratio as a contrary indicator.&nbsp; The logic is that when people are flocking to puts, the risks that they are attempting to either hedge or profit from are largely behind us.\u201d \u201cThe put\/call ratio can be a very useful tool \u2013 one that I consult often.&nbsp; But its messages are far from foolproof, and its false messages can be costly.&nbsp; Use with care.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/equity-investors-get-over-yourselves-fed-put-edition\/\">Equity Investors, Get Over Yourselves (Fed Put Edition)<\/a> \u2013 September 30<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cThis week we saw the \u201cBOE Put\u201d activated when the Bank of England stepped in to buy UK Gilts.\u201d \u201cPut simply, the BOE stood by for months and even continued to raise rates as gilts, stocks and the pound all fell steadily.&nbsp; They only stepped in when the credit markets were severely threatened.&nbsp; And their actions stopped the bleeding.\u201d \u201cIt\u2019s another reminder that when central banks make their moves, it\u2019s not usually about equities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/happy-35th-birthday-fed-put\/\">Happy 35th Birthday, Fed Put<\/a> \u2013 October 20<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cI assert that the \u201cFed Put\u201d was born on around noon on October 20th, 1987.\u201d \u201cBecause I was not privy to the actual phone calls, I\u2019ve never been able to say with 100% assurance that our buy program was backstopped by the Fed.\u201d \u201cI don\u2019t doubt that the traders who ran Salomon were inclined to buy the largest dip ever, but it is hard to imagine that they would have committed a potentially staggering amount of capital without a backstop.\u201d \u201cBut it is crucial to realize what drove the Fed to an unprecedented intervention.&nbsp; It wasn\u2019t just that equities were collapsing, it was that the financial system was collapsing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/crypto\/looking-back-at-cryptos-wild-ride\/\">Looking Back at Crypto\u2019s Wild Ride<\/a> \u2013 November 15<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cWould cryptos have become mainstream, let alone a mania, if we had positive real interest rates? I think not. Zero nominal and negative real rates encouraged all sorts of speculative excesses. This was just the most extreme.\u201d \u201cHow could anyone credibly assert that Bitcoin or any other cryptos could be an inflation hedge when they literally never existed in a period when inflation was problematic?&nbsp; I find it a difficult, if not impossible argument.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understanding-put-call-ratios\/\">Understanding Put\/Call Ratios<\/a> \u2013 November 18<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cI prefer to do two things. First, I focus on the total options volume across all exchanges. There are too many vagaries that influence order routing; I prefer to remove them from the data. Second, I prefer to use moving averages to analyze the data. When daily readings are as disjointed as we see in the graph above, it is quite helpful to smooth them with a moving average.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/market-to-fed-are-we-there-yet-fed-to-market-quiet-back-there\/\">Market to Fed: \u201cAre We There Yet?\u201d Fed to Market: \u201cQuiet Back There\u201d<\/a> \u2013 November 21<sup>st<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cIt occurred to me last week that Fed governors must feel like annoyed parents right now\u2026 Investors are ever hopeful for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/pivot-pause-poof\/\">a pivot, a pause, or some other sign<\/a> that the Federal Reserve will relent in their fight against inflation. In effect, they are like anxious children wondering \u2013 against all obvious evidence \u2013 whether the Fed has reached their destination. And like the frustrated parent behind the wheel, the commentary from a range of various Fed talking heads seems to reflect that frustration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/our-obsession-with-second-derivatives\/\">Our Obsession with Second Derivatives<\/a> \u2013 December 5<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cWe have now come to recognize that inflation \u2013 the first derivative of prices \u2013 may be above the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2% target for some time.&nbsp; Hoping for a quick reversion to stable prices is largely futile, so instead we are focusing more about whether inflation is slowing.&nbsp; In other words, in our hunt for \u201cpeak inflation\u201d we are seemingly more concerned about the second derivative of prices \u2013 whether the rate of change in prices (inflation) is slowing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/can-xle-remain-relatively-unscathed-as-oil-falls\/\">Can XLE Remain Relatively Unscathed as Oil Falls?<\/a> \u2013 December 8<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cIf investor preference and performance chasing provide the rationale for XLE\u2019s gains, we can understand why institutional portfolio managers would want to hold onto a winning sector into year-end.&nbsp; Will that preference continue as the calendar turns?&nbsp; If oil can reverse its recent declines, then quite possibly yes.&nbsp; If oil continues its months-long malaise amidst economic concerns, it seems likely that XLE and the energy sector could succumb to the relentless rotation that continually occurs in equity markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/so-good-news-can-be-good-news-again\/\">So, Good News Can Be Good News Again<\/a> \u2013 December 21<sup>st<\/sup> \u2013 \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-fed-december-22-edition\/\">Last week we wrote<\/a>: \u2018At some point \u2026 equity investors will need to decide which is more important to them \u2013 easy money or a decent economy.&nbsp; Odds are we\u2019re not getting both.\u2019&nbsp; For today, at least, they have decided that a decent economy is more important.&nbsp; Let\u2019s see if that persists into the start of the new year.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we start 2023 and I take a week off, it seems like an opportune time to look back at our best and worst calls of the second half of 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":183695,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14369,14233,11792],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-183694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-2022-recap","tag-2023-outlook","tag-markets-recap","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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