{"id":183656,"date":"2023-01-03T16:53:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-03T21:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/some-highlights-and-lowlights-of-2022-part-1\/"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:05","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:05","slug":"some-highlights-and-lowlights-of-2022-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/some-highlights-and-lowlights-of-2022-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Highlights and Lowlights of 2022 \u2013 Part 1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Even as we look ahead to the start of 2023, it seems like an opportune time to look back at our best and worst calls of 2022.  On balance, I would say we got more correct, though I really wish we were more emphatic about some of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They Don\u2019t Always Ring a Bell at the Top<\/a> \u2013 January 10th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cOnly now, when it appears that the firehose of Fed-provided liquidity is likely to abate, do conventional valuation considerations seem to be arising.\u201d \u201cWhile my friend\u2019s market call [of a peak in NDX] was a brilliantly timed one, the $3 trillion valuation of AAPL, while a reflection of high animal spirits (if not outright greed), was more a coincidental symptom rather than the proverbial bell ringing at a market top.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Does \u201cSell the Rips\u201d Replace \u201cBuy the Dips\u201d?<\/a> \u2013 January 19th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201c\u2026those of us with some *ahem* history in the markets know that there is a second half to the \u201cbuy the dip\u201d mantra.  The full phrase is actually \u201cBuy the Dips, Sell the Rips.\u201d \u201c\u2026when fighting the Fed means a failure to recognize their shifting tactics and the trends become far less friendly, \u201cSell the Rips\u201d takes on a far greater importance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Splitting Alphabet May Be A Boon To Options Traders<\/a> \u2013 February 2nd<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cWith a minimum cost of entry that will be 1\/20th of what it is currently, the options will indeed be more accessible to small traders.  Even better, spreads should decline markedly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bear Market Rallies are Short, Sharp, and Ferocious<\/a> \u2013 February 7th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cIt can be seductive and quite profitable to play a rally that follows an oversold market.  It is also crucially important to know whether this is a trading opportunity or an investable rally.  It\u2019s quite hard to tell the difference, and to believe it\u2019s the latter when it\u2019s actually the former.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will We Be Nostalgic for Super Bowl Crypto Ads?<\/a> \u2013 February 14th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cWhile much of the commentary about the half-time show focused upon its early 2000\u2019s nostalgia, I felt a similarly reminiscent feeling during the seemingly incessant commercials for cryptocurrency companies.  They brought back memories of the internet ads of Super Bowl XXXIV.\u201d \u201cI am not calling for the imminent demise of cryptocurrencies, but I do believe that a culling of weaker currencies and crypto-linked businesses could fall by the wayside like many of the early internet pioneers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Inversion is a Necessary, But Not Sufficient Signal<\/a> \u2013 February 23rd<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cRemember that a futures curve in backwardation usually means there is a temporary shortage of the commodity in question.  In this case, the commodity is volatility protection.\u201d \u201cI interpret the message of the market to be that we should continue to expect volatility \u2013 remember that volatility encompasses moves in both directions \u2013 but not to expect that a major bottom was put into place in recent sessions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slowing Growth + Regulatory Murk = Troubles for Chinese ADRs<\/a> \u2013 March 11th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201c\u2026it is important to recognize that Chinese ADRs remain risky and speculative until or unless we get more regulatory clarity about them on both sides of the Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At What Point Do We Reach Peak Musk?<\/a> \u2013 April 22nd<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cPeople have gone broke betting against Elon Musk for years.  It doesn\u2019t appear prudent right now to bet heavily against him right now either.  But that doesn\u2019t mean that betting on him is a sure thing anymore.  I can\u2019t say we\u2019ve reached peak Elon Musk yet, but I can\u2019t say we haven\u2019t either.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crypto, Stablecoins, Twitter, Capitulation \u2013 Notes from a Reunion<\/a> \u2013 May 16th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cSorry, but we are very unlikely to find the market\u2019s bottom until that mindset fades [that we always bounce back quickly] or we see \u2026 significant changes\u201d \u201cMy basic piece of advice remains that if you don\u2019t really understand what you\u2019re investing in [referring to crypto], then don\u2019t invest in it.\u201d [Comparing Musk\u2019s bid for TWTR to buying a house without an inspection] The mold (aka bot accounts) may indeed be worse than the seller claimed, but you forfeited your contractual right to make that a reason to lower the price.  How do you expect that to work out for you? \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cFed Put\u201d Lives.  But It\u2019s Never Been About Stocks<\/a> \u2013 May 27th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cI will assert that the Fed Put remains alive and well.  It\u2019s simply misunderstood.  The reality is that it has little to do with equities whatsoever.\u201d \u201cHere\u2019s the real thing \u2013 the Fed has never stated that they will intervene in equity markets just because they are down.  But they will almost certainly intervene if there is a crisis in credit markets that threatens the banking system or the flow of money.  That is a huge difference \u2013 a crucial facet that equity investors need to understand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t Fight the Fed!<\/a> \u2013 June 1st<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cNow that the Fed is about to embark upon a program of balance sheet reduction amidst a backdrop of rising interest rates, it is crucial for us to reassess exactly what fighting the Fed now entails. For the better part of the past 13 years, and certainly for most of the past two, stocks and bonds have benefited from a Fed whose stance has ranged from generally accommodative to wildly accommodative, punctuated by sporadic, tentative attempts to withdraw liquidity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Safe Assets are Getting Clobbered, Risk Assets Don\u2019t Stand a Chance<\/a> \u2013 June 13th<\/sup> \u2013 \u201cIf a relatively low-risk asset like 2-year notes is getting clobbered, what chance do risky assets have?\u201d \u201cIf equities are getting tossed because of diminished risk tolerance, what hope do cryptocurrencies have?  Looking at the price movement in cryptos large and small today and over the weekend, it is clear that many crypto holders decided to de-risk in a hurry.  More ominously, the Celsius network froze all withdrawals and transfers\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Even as we look ahead to the start of 2023, it seems like an opportune time to look back at our best and worst calls of 2022. On balance, I would say we got more correct, though I really wish we were more emphatic about some of them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":183657,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,5,14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14233],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-183656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-europe-middle-east-africa","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-2023-outlook","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSome Highlights and Lowlights of 2022 \u2013 Part 1<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Even as we look ahead to the start of 2023, it seems like an opportune time to look back at our best and worst calls of 2022. 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