{"id":183207,"date":"2022-12-15T17:38:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-15T22:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/less-goldilocks-more-jackson-hole\/"},"modified":"2023-03-09T15:01:27","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T20:01:27","slug":"less-goldilocks-more-jackson-hole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/less-goldilocks-more-jackson-hole\/","title":{"rendered":"Less \u201cGoldilocks\u201d, More \u201cJackson Hole\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There are some mornings when I stare at a blank screen, wondering what to write.&nbsp; This morning is not one of them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No one is calling me to ask why US indices are down over 2%.&nbsp; The reason is obvious.&nbsp; The bulk of the blame lies with the FOMC and Chair Powell, with some falling on the ECB and President Lagarde.&nbsp; These key central banks sent messages that investors were not eager to hear.&nbsp; I say investors, rather than traders, because traders react instantly while investors take a bit longer to consider their moves.&nbsp; That is why we saw a modest selloff yesterday after an afternoon of jumpy trading, while this morning we see concerted, broad-based selling.&nbsp; Those with cooler heads considered the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20221214a.htm\">FOMC\u2019s statement<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20221214.htm\">economic and rate projections<\/a>, and of course, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20221214.pdf\">the press conference<\/a> and realized there was little reason for near-term optimism.&nbsp; When the ECB matched the Fed\u2019s 50 basis point hike and strident rhetoric, that added to the general malaise in equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quite frankly, the reaction is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-fed-december-22-edition\/\">not out of line with what we wrote yesterday<\/a>.&nbsp; Among the points we made:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u201cThe key will be to see if the Chair or the Committee pushes back upon the interest rate narrative that is priced into fixed income markets.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Is there any doubt that a dot plot with a median estimate of 5.125% (vs. 4.625% in September) does anything other than push back vigorously against the fixed income market\u2019s assumptions for peak rates in May and cuts in the fourth quarter of 2023?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u201cFed Funds futures are more optimistic about the pace of rate policy than the Fed\u2019s dot plot implies\u201d.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It was true yesterday and remains true today.&nbsp; Fed Funds futures traders remain resolute in their views.&nbsp; As of this morning they still show rates peaking at 4.9% in May and dropping to 4.4% in December.&nbsp; Someone will be proven wrong over the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u201cThe one takeaway [from our table showing reactions to FOMC meetings] is that the equity market tends to reverse after a consensus expectation goes beyond the Fed\u2019s comfort level\u2026Around the past two meetings, when investors began to hope for something accommodative \u2013 <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/pivot-no-peak-not-yet-pause-not-now-slower-pace\/\"><em>a pivot, a peak, a pause<\/em><\/a><em> \u2013 equities reacted negatively when none was forthcoming.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This was the case yesterday afternoon and this morning.&nbsp; Remember, our table focuses on three-day moves, not just the immediate reaction.&nbsp; As noted above, traders react while investors consider.&nbsp; It is therefore appropriate to consider the moves over the two days that follow a Fed meeting as highly \u2013 if not more highly \u2013 than the reaction in a couple of hours after the announcement.&nbsp; This is especially true when an FOMC meeting coincides with a quarterly expiration, as it does now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u201cFor those of us who focus upon equities, it is important to remember that we have a quarterly expiration on Friday.&nbsp; That increases the likelihood that any moves can be exacerbated by expiring futures and options positions.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I believe that the effect of tomorrow\u2019s expiration is already having an outsized impact on today\u2019s market moves.&nbsp; As of this morning, there were about 125,000 expiring put and call options on SPX with a 3900 strike.&nbsp; These options expire on the open, which makes them more difficult to hedge than those that expire on the close.&nbsp; Remember that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/expiring-open-interest-magnet-or-slingshot\/\">expiring options can act either as a magnet or a slingshot<\/a>, depending upon the nature of the holders and the moves in the underlying.&nbsp; Their presence largely explains why we have spent much of the morning around that strike, but it also raises the specter that an outsized move in either direction \u2013 whether this afternoon or in tomorrow\u2019s pre-market \u2013 can quickly metastasize into something even more significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>\u201cAt some point, probably not today, however, equity investors will need to decide which is more important to them \u2013 easy money or a decent economy.&nbsp; Odds are we\u2019re not getting both.\u201d&nbsp;<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That dichotomy is even more stark today than it was yesterday.&nbsp; The Fed and ECB are both signaling that they have no plans to ease monetary policy anytime soon. &nbsp;Sure, that could occur if inflation manages to return to 2% without significant economic weakness, but that seems like a rather tight needle to thread.&nbsp; The other possibility is that the economy weakens sufficiently to spur central banks to end their restrictive policies.&nbsp; Those policies include balance sheet reduction, aka \u201cquantitative tightening\u201d or \u201cQT\u201d, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20221214.pdf\">Powell mentioned only twice yesterday<\/a> and seemingly only in passing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you\u2019re an equity investor hoping for the latter scenario &#8212; an economy sufficiently weak to spur fresh rate cuts &#8212; be VERY careful what you wish for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture1-13-1.png\" alt=\" class=\" class=\"wp-image-170346 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are some mornings when I stare at a blank screen, wondering what to write.  This morning is not one of them.  No one is calling me to ask why US indices are down over 2%.  The reason is obvious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":186448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[9362,314,1926,62],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-183207","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-options","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-economic-outlook","16":"tag-fomc","17":"tag-options","18":"tag-rates","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Less \u201cGoldilocks\u201d, More \u201cJackson Hole\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There are some mornings when I stare at a blank screen, wondering what to write. 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