{"id":183014,"date":"2022-12-09T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-09T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/that-was-the-week-that-wasnt-plus-gas-and-inflation\/"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:12","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:12","slug":"that-was-the-week-that-wasnt-plus-gas-and-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/that-was-the-week-that-wasnt-plus-gas-and-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"That Was the Week That Wasn\u2019t \u2013 Plus Gas and Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prior to yesterday\u2019s modest rally, propped up by a bout of furious last-minute buying, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) had experienced five down days in a row.&nbsp; The declines of last Thursday and Friday were quite modest, but the drops on Monday and Tuesday were about 1.5% each.&nbsp; The questions arose \u2013 what went wrong this week? \u2013 but my opinion is that nothing truly unusual occurred. Instead, the unusual event was the outsize reaction to Chair Powell\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20221130a.htm\">address to the Brookings Institution<\/a> on November 30<sup>th<\/sup>, and this week\u2019s declines were more about recognition that traders might have gotten ahead of themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A two-week chart makes the round trip quite obvious:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-2-week-chart-10-minute-bars\"><strong><em>SPX 2-Week Chart, 10-Minute Bars<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture4-2-1.png\" alt=\"SPX 2-Week Chart, 10-Minute Bars\" class=\"wp-image-169600 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-returns\/\">On the day after the speech, we noted<\/a> that there was little new information to spur a sizeable jump other than a pleasant \u201cGoldilocks\u201d tone in Powell\u2019s remarks.&nbsp; The rally was abetted by month-end factors and some aggressive call buyers, which no doubt made the burst more explosive.&nbsp; Over the coming days, when the hoped-for follow-through failed to arrive, we simply consolidated the rally and turned lower once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much was made about the fact that SPX closed above its 200-day moving average.&nbsp; The attention was understandable.&nbsp; The 200-day capped August\u2019s rally quite neatly, with SPX failing to break higher, only to get kneecapped a couple of weeks later by Powell\u2019s Jackson Hole speech.&nbsp; This time, the 200-day offered no significant resistance to the gamma-fueled rally, so it consequently offered only a day\u2019s worth of support on the way down.&nbsp; The chart below shows the both the past significance of the 200-day and the current significance of the 100-day moving averages:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>SPX, 6-Months, Daily Bars with 50-Day (purple), 100- Day (blue), 200-Day (yellow) Moving Averages<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture3-2-1.png\" alt=\"SPX, 6-Months, Daily Bars with 50-Day (purple), 100- Day (blue), 200-Day (yellow) Moving Averages\" class=\"wp-image-169599 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A key factor in this week\u2019s declines was the recognition that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/markets-switch-to-recession-mode\/\">recessionary forces could be problematic for equities.<\/a>&nbsp; The bond market continues to point to a potentially imminent recession, with the 2-10 inversion at levels not seen since 1981.&nbsp; Bank CEO\u2019s told a gloomy story.&nbsp; Oil fell despite the easing of Chinese covid restrictions, the positive effects of which might have been another \u201cbuy the rumor \/ sell the news\u201d event.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, volatility measures returned to more normal levels.&nbsp; By late last week we saw VIX and implied volatilities on key index options sink to rather complacent levels by recent standards.&nbsp; It was as though the enthusiasm slowly morphed back to a recognition that next week contains an FOMC meeting and a quarterly expiration.&nbsp; Either or both could be sources of volatility.&nbsp; The chart below shows just how the implied volatilities for SPX options expiring next week have jumped from about 21 to almost 30 over the past few sessions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>SPX Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow) vs. 1-Week Ago (red)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture2-4-1.png\" alt=\"SPX Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow) vs. 1-Week Ago (red)\" class=\"wp-image-169598 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Longer-term implied volatility also rose, but that move pales in comparison to the jump higher in the days most directly affected by the FOMC meeting and expiration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I write this, we see SPX and other measures trying to move cautiously higher in spite of a negative surprise in PPI.&nbsp; On a month-over-month basis, headline PPI rose 0.3% and the core rate rose 0.4%, above consensus by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.&nbsp; That certainly doesn\u2019t paint a rosy picture for central bankers who continually reaffirm their commitment to fight inflation.&nbsp; Yet many traders are hopeful for a solid end to the year, so they reminded themselves that PPI numbers usually take a backseat to CPI (due on Tuesday).&nbsp; Optimists were encouraged by the University of Michigan numbers, which showed improvement in Sentiment (59.1 vs 57), Current Conditions (60.2 vs 58.8), Expectations (58.4 vs. 54.5) and 1-Year Inflation Expectations (4.6% vs. 4.95).&nbsp; All should be welcome to those who fear a consumer-led recession, though the following graph makes me a bit skeptical about how much of the good feelings can simply be attributed to lower gasoline prices.&nbsp; The inflationary expectations certainly are highly correlated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (white), Rolling Front-Month Crude Futures (blue), Rolling Front-Month Gasoline Futures (red)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture1-8.png\" alt=\"University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (white), Rolling Front-Month Crude Futures (blue), Rolling Front-Month Gasoline Futures (red)\" class=\"wp-image-169597 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remember, the Federal Reserve is concerned primarily with core inflation that excludes food and energy.&nbsp; The people who answer survey are clearly more influenced by the prices of the so-called non-core items.&nbsp; Let\u2019s see how the FOMC addresses that distinction next week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior to yesterday\u2019s modest rally, propped up by a bout of furious last-minute buying, the S&#038;P 500 Index (SPX) had experienced five down days in a row.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":183019,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[17,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[204,570,1685,207,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-183014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-futures","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-gas","tag-inflation","tag-macro","tag-spx","tag-stocks","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - 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