{"id":182787,"date":"2022-12-02T17:36:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-02T22:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\/"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:14","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:14","slug":"why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Let Data Get in the Way of a Good Story?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report offered a surprise this morning.&nbsp; Payrolls increased by 263,000, well above the 200,000 consensus (and above a \u201cwhisper\u201d number of about 188,000).&nbsp; Last month\u2019s report was revised higher by 21,000 as well, though the unemployment rate remained unchanged at an as expected 3.7%.&nbsp; Perhaps most importantly, average hourly earnings accelerated sharply.&nbsp; The month-over-month increase was 0.6%, well above the 0.3% consensus and above last month\u2019s reading, which was revised from 0.4% to 0.5%.&nbsp; The year-over-year rate was 5.1%, which is obviously well above the level targeted by the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My initial reaction was this: despite some recent reduction in the JOLTS numbers, at over 10.3 million they remain well above pre-covid highs.&nbsp; We shouldn\u2019t be surprised when companies do their best to fill those openings, and with a low unemployment rate it remains costly to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The initial reactions by stock and bond markets were predictably negative.&nbsp; Two-year yields jumped by as much as 22-basis points and 10-years jumped by about 12.&nbsp; Stock futures plunged, with NQ futures indicating as much as a 2% loss.&nbsp; Since then, both have recovered to more modest losses.&nbsp; As I type this in late morning, 2-year yields are up \u201conly\u201d 11 bp an 10-years up 8bp.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) is down by just over 0.5% and the NASDAQ down by about 1%.&nbsp; It is one thing for markets to recover from an initial overreaction, another to be flirting with a full recovery.&nbsp; (To be fair, the rail strike news is a valid positive.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In trying to resolve how investors can shrug off inconvenient data when the Fed professes to be data dependent, I searched the term \u201cdata dependent\u201d in text of Chair Powell\u2019s to the Brookings Institution that spurred markets earlier this week.&nbsp; Guess what, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20221130a.htm\">there\u2019s no mention of it.<\/a>&nbsp; So, why shouldn\u2019t hopeful investors be able to shrug it off?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One sign of the relative complacency is the sub-20 level of VIX.&nbsp; Although we\u2019ve explained why <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/vix-is-not-now-nor-has-it-ever-been-the-fear-index\/\">VIX is not actually a fear gauge<\/a>, its recent decline to levels near its year\u2019s low does raise some eyebrows.&nbsp; Today\u2019s decline is also likely to reflect that one of the month\u2019s most important data points is now behind us.&nbsp; At this point, it is important to remember that VIX is constructed to measure the market\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/tradable_products\/vix\/faqs\/\">best estimate of volatility over the coming 30 days<\/a>. &nbsp;&nbsp;VIX is telling us that traders expect smooth sailing into year end.&nbsp; When we consider that the last two weeks of the year are typically slow, that is not necessarily wrong-headed.&nbsp; What is interesting is that traders then expect volatility to increase over the coming months, as indicated by the VIX futures curve:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-futures-curve-today-yellow-top-1-week-ago-red-top-with-changes-bottom\"><strong>VIX Futures Curve, Today (yellow, top), 1 Week Ago (red, top) with Changes (bottom)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture2-1-1.png\" alt=\"VIX Futures Curve, Today (yellow, top), 1 Week Ago (red, top) with Changes (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-168650 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We see that over the past week, there has been a roughly parallel shift lower in the curve.&nbsp; There is a fairly pronounced drop in the date that includes the FOMC meeting (December 14<sup>th<\/sup>) and the subsequent weekly expiration (December 21<sup>st<\/sup>).&nbsp; Considering the improved consensus about a 50-basis point hike, that too is not surprising.&nbsp; But note the steep contango into January and beyond.&nbsp; This implies quiet for the coming 30 days and then a resumption of volatility thereafter.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is quite fascinating to see how implied volatility has plunged over the course of a month.&nbsp; Notice how SPY switched from a term structure in sharp backwardation to steep contango.&nbsp; Yet even in the data from a month ago we see a dip in the December portion of the curve.&nbsp; That is the market\u2019s ongoing recognition of seasonality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>SPY Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1 Month Ago (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture1-4-1.png\" alt=\"SPY Implied Volatility Term Structure, Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1 Month Ago (magenta)\" class=\"wp-image-168649 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Equity markets are clearly taking the view that the markets will remain stable and healthy into the end of the year.&nbsp; There are certainly a wide range of individual and institutional investors who are rooting for a solid end to a rough year, many of whom are betting on it.&nbsp; If enough investors believe that something will occur, they can indeed make it happen.&nbsp; At least in the short-term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report offered a surprise this morning.  Yet despite some recent reduction in the JOLTS numbers, they remain well above pre-covid highs.  We shouldn\u2019t be surprised when companies do their best to fill those openings, and that a low unemployment rate makes it costly to do so.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":182790,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14216,317,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-182787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-nonfarm-payrolls-report","tag-vix","tag-volatility","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Let Data Get in the Way of a Good Story?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report offered a surprise this morning. 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We shouldn\u2019t be surprised when companies do their best to fill those openings, and that a low unemployment rate makes it costly to do so.D\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-12-02T22:36:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-10T18:30:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/buy-sell.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Why Let Data Get in the Way of a Good Story?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Why Let Data Get in the Way of a Good Story?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2022-12-02T22:36:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2023-02-10T18:30:14+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 727,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/buy-sell.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"Nonfarm Payrolls report\",\n\t                \"VIX\",\n\t                \"volatility\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Why Let Data Get in the Way of a Good Story?\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-let-data-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-story\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/buy-sell.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2022-12-02T22:36:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2023-02-10T18:30:14+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report offered a surprise this morning. 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