{"id":182626,"date":"2022-11-30T05:16:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T10:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/stocks-take-cover-on-november-29-2022\/"},"modified":"2023-02-16T14:55:02","modified_gmt":"2023-02-16T19:55:02","slug":"stocks-take-cover-on-november-29-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/region\/stocks-take-cover-on-november-29-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"STOCKS TAKE COVER ON NOVEMBER 29, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>STOCKS \u2013 AAPL, ARKK<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MACRO \u2013 SPY, DXY, VIX, SPYG, SPYV, TIP<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN APPLE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 finished today lower by around 20 bps. Today was about rising rates and a stronger dollar. Surprisingly, the VIX moved lower by 1%, which is odd, given Powell\u2019s appearance tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vol-vix\">Vol (VIX)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>But looks can be deceiving because we live in a world where the S&amp;P 500 has an expiration date every day of the week. So why buy puts 30 days from now when you can purchase hedges for tomorrow and worry about what comes next later? So with that type of mentality, you can understand why implied volatility for tomorrow\u2019s S&amp;P 500 expiration date is rising sharply and why the VIX is down. If Powell has a Jackson hole tone, which I think he will, then that entire volatility curve should rise sharply tomorrow and the VIX with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/1-Volatility-Index.webp\" alt=\"Volatility Index\" class=\"wp-image-168089 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dollar (DXY)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar seems to influence the S&amp;P 500 more than anything else these days. The dollar has snapped back the past two days, which has me again saying I think the dollar has bottomed. Maybe I am stubbornly bullish on the dollar, but I know Powell needs financial conditions to tighten, and the dollar plays a significant role in financial conditions tightening. So if Powell delivers that hawkish message tomorrow, the dollar should rise. I\u2019d like to see the DXY get back to 110 or so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/2-Dollar-Index-1100x577.webp\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" class=\"wp-image-168090 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/577;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 (SPY)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If the dollar makes it back to 110, it will inflict much pain on the equity market and probably result in that gap filling at 3,750. Nothing new from me, as I have been looking for a gap fill to 3,750 since the November options expiration date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/3-SP-500-3-1100x798.webp\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" class=\"wp-image-168094 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/798;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">TIP<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We also saw a good move higher in rates today, which helped push the TIP ETF lower. The TIP ETF has not been a factor now for some time and has been trading sideways. The TIP traded sideways, heading into Jackson Hole for about two months. The TIP ETF has traded sideways for about two months, heading into the Powell Q&amp;A session tomorrow. Maybe the TIP ETF will wake up tomorrow. Again, real rates need to rise to tighten financial conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/4-TIP-1100x798.webp\" alt=\"TIP\" class=\"wp-image-168095 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/798;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Growth To Value (SPYG to SPYV)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The SPYG to SPYV ratio has already started to fill the gap from the November 10 CPI reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/5-Growth-To-Value-1100x798.webp\" alt=\"Growth to Value\" class=\"wp-image-168096 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/798;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Apple (AAPL)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Apple is on the cusp of breaking down and filling the gap from November 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/6-Apple-1100x798.webp\" alt=\" class=\" class=\"wp-image-168097 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/798;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ARKK (ARKK)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The ARKK ETF also looks like it has started to fill the gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/7-ARKK-1100x798.webp\" alt=\"ARKK\" class=\"wp-image-168098 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/798;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If Powell does his job of tightening financial conditions tomorrow, volatility should rise, rates should increase, the dollar should strengthen, and the S&amp;P 500 should fall and move lower towards 3,750.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on 29th November \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/mottcapitalmanagement.com\/stocks-take-cover-on-november-29-2022\/\">Stocks Take Cover On November 29, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The S&#038;P 500 finished today lower by around 20 bps.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13718],"class_list":{"0":"post-182626","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-north-america","7":"category-region","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-mott-capital-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>STOCKS TAKE COVER ON NOVEMBER 29, 2022 | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 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