{"id":181858,"date":"2022-11-02T16:49:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-02T20:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/is-a-pause-the-new-pivot\/"},"modified":"2023-03-09T14:28:33","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T19:28:33","slug":"is-a-pause-the-new-pivot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/region\/is-a-pause-the-new-pivot\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a Pause the New Pivot?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yay, it\u2019s Fed Day!&nbsp; OK, that might be a bit much, but after weeks of speculating what the FOMC may or may not announce, we\u2019ll know for sure at 2PM EDT.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I write this, it is almost certain that the FOMC will raise its Fed Funds target by 0.75% to 3.75-4%.&nbsp; Fed Funds futures actually show a very slight probability for a full 1% hike, but it would be highly uncharacteristic for this Fed to deviate after weeks of telegraphing a 75-basis point hike.&nbsp; The larger questions involve the pace of future hikes and the so-called terminal rate \u2013 the level at which the Fed stops raising rates in this cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is difficult to imagine that either the FOMC statement or Chair Powell\u2019s press conference will definitively answer either of those crucial questions, but investors will nonetheless be assiduously hunting for clues.&nbsp; Though it is useful to search for changes in messaging between the current and prior statements, the meeting statement is normally anodyne.&nbsp; The FOMC typically updates its \u201cdot plots\u201d once a quarter, and this is not the time in the meeting cycle when a fresh plot would be expected.&nbsp; That means we are unlikely to be able to rely on that source of information.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As usual, then, all eyes and ears will be on Chair Powell\u2019s press conference.&nbsp; Unfortunately, even that might be less helpful than what we\u2019ve become accustomed to.&nbsp; Although I\u2019ve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-is-a-68-year-old-man-in-a-suit\/\">repeatedly<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-in-a-suit-sully-sullenberger\/\">referred<\/a> to Chair <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/can-goldilocks-in-a-suit-pull-a-houdini\/\">Powell<\/a> as \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/can-goldilocks-in-a-suit-keep-the-bears-away\/\">Goldilocks<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/goldilocks-feeds-the-bears\/\">in a suit<\/a>\u201d, I may need to retire that construct.&nbsp; Remember the July meeting, when investors became enamored with his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/yay-we-might-be-in-a-recession\/\">use of the term \u201cneutral\u201d<\/a>, only to be reminded in a few weeks later \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradersinsight.news\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-stop-doubting-my-resolve-to-cool-the-porridge\/\">in no uncertain terms<\/a> &#8212; that the Fed was committed to using rate hikes to fight inflation, even if they reduced overall demand in the economy.&nbsp; It seems hard to imagine him deviating too much from that stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, there have been rumblings that the Fed might become a bit less transparent in their messaging.&nbsp; Some Fed watchers believe that a bit more mystery might actually be helpful for the central bankers.&nbsp; If there is ambiguity in their messaging, then there is less risk that they will be perceived as turning about face.&nbsp; Stating a higher reliance on data dependency while committing less to specific targets would be a clue a shift to translucence, if not opacity.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bear in mind that central bank ambiguity is likely to result in more intraday volatility, however.&nbsp; If it is difficult to establish a consensus, then markets must spend more time finding one.&nbsp; We have seen a trend towards higher volatility in the post-meeting periods after recent FOMC meetings, and a less clear Fed could continue that trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pay close attention to the two rightmost columns in the table below.&nbsp; We pay attention to the three-day period that includes the FOMC announcement and the subsequent two sessions.&nbsp; The rationale is that traders often react abruptly while investors usually need some time to fully digest the news.&nbsp; Because meeting results are typically announced on Wednesdays, that means we usually end up measuring the Wednesday through Friday period, with Tuesday\u2019s close as the starting point.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The last two meetings have brought high volatility, with -4.22% and 5.34% moves respectively.&nbsp; Note also that the high-low moves during the three-day period<a id=\"_ednref1\" href=\"#_edn1\">[i]<\/a> have ranged from 4.78% &#8211; 7.12% after the past five meetings.&nbsp; Notice also how both the moves have been steadily much higher than the ones we experienced during the late-2020 through 2021 period.&nbsp; We have been asserting that monetary stimulus suppresses volatility while a restrictive policy tends to exacerbate it.&nbsp; This is yet another example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There will be much to consider this afternoon.&nbsp; At 2PM EDT we\u2019ll know what will come from today\u2019s FOMC meeting, and over the next hour and a half we\u2019ll be considering the ramifications of Chair Powell\u2019s press conference.&nbsp; There is only one certainty: by about 2:30 we\u2019ll already be speculating about what will come six weeks from now, at the next meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/Picture1-2.png\" alt=\"1 and 3 day changes after previous FOMC Meetings\" class=\"wp-image-164637 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> The three-day high\/low move is measured from Wednesday\u2019s open through Friday\u2019s close, while the three-day percentage change is measure from Tuesday\u2019s close to Friday\u2019s close.&nbsp; If markets have a gap open on Wednesday it can cause the high\/low to be smaller than the closing move.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yay, it\u2019s Fed Day!  OK, that might be a bit much, but after weeks of speculating what the FOMC may or may not announce, we\u2019ll know for sure at 2PM EDT.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":186448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,12419,314,570,10115],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-181858","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-fed","15":"tag-fed-pivot","16":"tag-fomc","17":"tag-inflation","18":"tag-rate-hikes","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is a Pause the New Pivot? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yay, it\u2019s Fed Day! 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