{"id":164215,"date":"2022-10-31T12:34:02","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T16:34:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=164215"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:21","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:21","slug":"quarters-dont-repeat-but-they-sometimes-rhyme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/quarters-dont-repeat-but-they-sometimes-rhyme\/","title":{"rendered":"Quarters Don\u2019t Repeat, But They Sometimes Rhyme"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Most of us are familiar with the phrase \u201chistory doesn\u2019t repeat, but it often rhymes.\u201d&nbsp; It is widely attributed to Mark Twain, though there is <a href=\"https:\/\/quoteinvestigator.com\/2014\/01\/12\/history-rhymes\/\">no actual evidence<\/a> of him saying or writing it.&nbsp; In thinking about the equity market\u2019s stellar performance as October comes to a close, I realized that there was a certain familiarity to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Compare the following periods:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>S&amp;P 500, Q2 End \/ Q3 Start, Q3 End \/ Q4 Start<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"901\" height=\"207\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-25.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500, Q2 End \/ Q3 Start, Q3 End \/ Q4 Start\" class=\"wp-image-164218 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-25.png 901w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-25-700x161.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-25-300x69.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-25-768x176.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 901px) 100vw, 901px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 901px; aspect-ratio: 901\/207;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The performances of the equity market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX), in the June-July and September-October periods are remarkably similar.&nbsp; Not only were the monthly falls and rises within one percent of each other, so are the monthly maximum high\/low ranges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This could of course be a coincidence, but I doubt it.&nbsp; Similar factors, economic and emotional, were in place as we ended one negative quarter and began another one with more optimism about earnings and Fed policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we think back to late June and late September it appeared as though institutional managers were moving to lighten their exposures after negative quarters for both stocks and bonds.&nbsp; In June, equities bounced \u2013 and many thought they had bottomed<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a> \u2013 after a positive reaction to the FOMC meeting on June 15<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; Although stocks were bouncing, SPX was still down about 20% in the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> quarter, leading to cautious institutional positioning ahead of their quarterly reports.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Things were a bit different in the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> quarter.&nbsp; The June bounce continued through July earnings season and took another leg higher after the July 27<sup>th<\/sup> Fed meeting.&nbsp; The rally ended abruptly in mid-August after Chairman Powell\u2019s terse speech at Jackson Hole squelched the idea of a Fed pivot, and SPX closed at new lows as the quarter ended.&nbsp; As the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> quarter ended, we had just seen the UK narrowly avert a meltdown in gilts.&nbsp; Once those worries subsided, there was an opportunity for the dollar to ease and for risk assets to rally.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In October, just as we saw in July, investors took a generally positive view towards corporate earnings.&nbsp; That sentiment propelled equities higher.&nbsp; Not all of them mind you, but enough to push up major indices by removing the direst fears about the effect of inflation and concerns about an undisclosed recession.&nbsp; Market psychology was quite glum as we approached each of the past two earnings seasons, which meant that decent results had a greater than normal potential to push stocks upward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now we find ourselves with a fresh set of challenges, one of them unique to the 4<sup>th<\/sup> quarter.&nbsp; We have an FOMC meeting on Wednesday.&nbsp; SPX rose 5.3% in the three-day period following the July 27th meeting but fell 4.2% in the three-day period after the September 20th meeting.&nbsp; With a seeming consensus that the Fed might signal a slowing rate cycle, if not a pause (now that a pivot is off the table), all eyes will be on the Fed\u2019s messaging in the statement and the post-meeting press conference.&nbsp; We have payrolls data on Friday, which will of course be too late to impact the week\u2019s FOMC meeting, but closely watched nonetheless.&nbsp; And of course the true outlier is the mid-term election that will be occurring a week from tomorrow.&nbsp; Considering the parlous recent state of polling, it is not clear what to expect from the races for the House and Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems that market performance this month has certainly rhymed with that of the prior earnings season.&nbsp; I\u2019ll end with another apocryphal quote, <a href=\"https:\/\/quoteinvestigator.com\/2013\/10\/08\/deja-vu-again\/\">usually attributed to<\/a>v Yankee great Yogi Berra: \u201cIt\u2019s d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu all over again.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-daily-chart-since-march-1-spx-blue-white-10-year-treasury-yield-red-us-dollar-index-green-with-vertical-lines-at-quarter-ends\"><strong><em>Daily Chart Since March 1: SPX (blue\/white), 10 Year Treasury Yield (red), US Dollar Index (green), with Vertical Lines at Quarter Ends<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"550\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-16.png\" alt=\"Daily Chart Since March 1: SPX (blue\/white), 10 Year Treasury Yield (red), US Dollar Index (green), with Vertical Lines at Quarter Ends\" class=\"wp-image-164219 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-16.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-16-700x411.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-16-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-16-768x451.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/550;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> We did not, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-bottom-or-the-bottom\/\">writing on June 27th<\/a>: \u201cYes, we\u2019ve had a nice short-term bottom, but I highly doubt that we\u2019ve seen THE bottom.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most of us are familiar with the phrase \u201chistory doesn\u2019t repeat, but it often rhymes.\u201d In thinking about the equity market\u2019s stellar performance as October comes to a close, I realized that there was a certain familiarity to it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[8205,910,207],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-164215","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-ibkr-market-insights","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-10-year-treasury-yield","14":"tag-sp-500","15":"tag-spx","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Quarters Don\u2019t Repeat, But They Sometimes Rhyme<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Most of us are familiar with the phrase \u201chistory doesn\u2019t repeat, but it often rhymes.\u201d . 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