{"id":162625,"date":"2022-10-19T12:01:38","date_gmt":"2022-10-19T16:01:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=162625"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:25","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:25","slug":"what-the-options-market-is-telling-us-about-tsla-earnings-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-the-options-market-is-telling-us-about-tsla-earnings-2\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Options Market is Telling Us About TSLA Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It has been an interesting few months for Tesla (TSLA) and its CEO Elon Musk.&nbsp; Since the company\u2019s last earnings report, after US markets closed on <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-the-options-market-is-telling-us-about-tsla-earnings\/\">July 20<sup>th<\/sup><\/a>, the stock rose about 25% after first beating earnings, then riding a broad market rally into August.&nbsp; TSLA announced a 3:1 split on August 5<sup>th<\/sup>, traded ex-split on the 25<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; Since then, the stock has given back all its gains and then some.&nbsp; We\u2019re now about 10% below where the stock traded prior to its last report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>TSLA 4-Month Daily Bars, with July 20<sup>th<\/sup> Highlighted<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"554\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-8.png\" alt=\"TSLA 4-Month Daily Bars, with July 20th Highlighted\" class=\"wp-image-162628 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-8.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-8-700x414.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-8-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-8-768x455.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/554;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/time-for-a-tesla-quiz\/\">We wrote last week<\/a> about how the vast majority of TSLA\u2019s historically remarkable performance came in two major pushes higher, with the stock plateauing for years after each one.&nbsp; We are currently in year two of the current plateau, with the prior plateaus lasting three and six years.&nbsp; We also noted how the stock has so far never meaningfully retraced either of its nearly vertical moves in 2013 and 2019-21.&nbsp; Even though the stock is currently well below its recent highs, it is up about tenfold since early 2020.&nbsp; As a result, bulls are likely inclined to see major support in the $200 range, while bears might see it as a precipice.&nbsp; Let\u2019s see if either of those views are reflected in the options market ahead of this afternoon\u2019s earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of now, the IBKR Probability Lab shows that the distribution for TSLA options expiring on Friday is rather symmetrical.&nbsp; The highest probability is around $220, which is about a dollar below where the stock was trading when the snapshot was taken.&nbsp; This tells us that options traders do not have a strong opinion about TSLA\u2019s post-earnings reaction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for TSLA Options Expiring October 21<sup>st<\/sup><\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"395\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-8.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for TSLA Options Expiring October 21st\" class=\"wp-image-162629 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-8.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-8-700x295.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-8-300x127.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-8-768x324.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/395;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we look at options skew for options expiring this Friday, next Friday and next month, we see that at-money options have a relatively typical set of expectations as well.&nbsp; The implied volatility of at-money weekly options is roughly in line with TSLA\u2019s average post-earnings move of about 7.5%.&nbsp; Downside skew in this week\u2019s options is quite steep, but not unusually so when <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-the-options-market-is-telling-us-about-tsla-earnings\/\">compared to last quarter<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp; We also see that downside skew for options expiring in both a week and a month from now is slightly steeper than what we saw in July, but not appreciably so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tsla-skew-options-expiring-october-21st-yellow-28th-green-and-november-18th-orange\"><strong><em>TSLA Skew, Options Expiring October 21<sup>st<\/sup> (yellow), 28<sup>th<\/sup> (green) and November 18<sup>th<\/sup> (orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"645\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-14.png\" alt=\"TSLA Skew, Options Expiring October 21st (yellow), 28th (green) and November 18th (orange)\" class=\"wp-image-162627 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-14.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-14-700x482.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-14-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture1-14-768x529.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/645;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On balance, the options market is relatively sanguine about TSLA\u2019s earnings.&nbsp; It also appears to be relatively sanguine about the need for Musk to sell additional shares to finance his acquisition of Twitter (TWTR), which is set to close at the end of the month.&nbsp; It is unlikely that he has been able to sell shares ahead of earnings, which raises the prospect that he might need to do so in the coming week.&nbsp; If so, it would certainly be helpful if TSLA had a solid pop after earnings and shares could be sold into strength.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It has been an interesting few months for Tesla (TSLA) and its CEO Elon Musk. The stock has given back all its gains and then some.  We\u2019re now about 10% below where the stock traded prior to its last report. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":68511,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,1926,161],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-162625","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-earnings","16":"tag-options","17":"tag-tesla","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What the Options Market is Telling Us About TSLA Earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It has been an interesting few months for Tesla (TSLA) and its CEO Elon Musk. 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