{"id":162164,"date":"2022-10-17T12:52:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-17T16:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=162164"},"modified":"2023-03-14T09:39:50","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T13:39:50","slug":"is-this-volatile-enough-for-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/is-this-volatile-enough-for-you\/","title":{"rendered":"Is This Volatile Enough for You?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I\u2019ve heard some infuriating takes about how the high level of VIX and inverted curve in its futures indicate a sign of potential capitulation.\u00a0 When we consider that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.cboe.com\/resources\/vix\/VIX_Methodology.pdf\">the VIX Index measures the 30-day expected volatility of the S&amp;P 500 Index<\/a>\u201d, and then take into account that the coming 30 days include earnings season and a midterm election, it is sensible that VIX would see elevated values in the short-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While past is not always prologue, we are evidently in a period of high volatility.&nbsp; Let\u2019s recap the past three days in the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX), shall we.&nbsp; Up 2.6% after recovering from a similar-sized intraday drop, down 2.4%, then up by 2.2% (as I write this).&nbsp;&nbsp; Nothing to see here, correct?&nbsp; Especially when two of the three sessions were big up days, aka \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/socially-acceptable-volatility\/\">socially acceptable volatility<\/a>\u201d, right.&nbsp; In the sessions prior to today in the month of October, we\u2019ve seen 6 of 10 close with moves over 2%.&nbsp; And let\u2019s not forget the abundance of moves of 1.5% or more since September 1<sup>st<\/sup>, as shown in the graph below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>SPX, Daily Bars Since September 1st<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"461\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture8.png\" alt=\"SPX, Daily Bars Since September 1st\" class=\"wp-image-162167 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture8.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture8-300x222.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/461;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we bear in mind that VIX and other common measures of volatility are displayed in annualized terms, we can use the \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understand-the-rule-of-16\/\">rule of 16<\/a>\u201d to convert them into daily terms.&nbsp; A volatility of 32 implies a set of daily moves of 2%. &nbsp;While the<a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.cboe.com\/resources\/vix\/VIX_Methodology.pdf\"> VIX methodology<\/a> incorporates all call and put options with non-zero bids and times to expiration between 23 and 37 days, making it directly comparable with at-money SPX options, it is broadly consistent with at-money volatility assumptions and highly consistent over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The VIX futures curve also allows us to see whether expectations for future volatility are rising or falling.&nbsp; A glance at the current term structure show that traders have ratcheted up their volatility assumptions over the past month, though reduced them somewhat over the last week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-futures-term-structure-today-october-17th-yellow-1-week-ago-red-and-1-month-ago-purple-with-1-week-red-and-1-month-purple-changes-in-lower-panel\"><strong><em>VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (October 17<sup>th<\/sup>, yellow), 1 Week Ago (red), and 1 Month Ago (purple), with 1-week (red) and 1-month (purple) Changes in Lower Panel<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"493\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture9-1.png\" alt=\"VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (October 17th, yellow), 1 Week Ago (red), and 1 Month Ago (purple), with 1-week (red) and 1-month (purple) Changes in Lower Panel\" class=\"wp-image-162168 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture9-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture9-1-300x237.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/493;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the reduction in expectations since last week can be explained by the fact that we are no longer looking ahead to CPI and PPI numbers \u2013 they\u2019re now behind us, with accompanying volatility.&nbsp; But it is reasonable to expect that some residual volatility can ensue over the coming weeks, and for volatility to decline once the midterm election is firmly in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; It is the latter event that should keep volatility expectations elevated in the near-term relative to the subsequent weeks and months. Just less than a month ago we asserted that the then-current 29 level of VIX <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/whats-not-up-with-vix\/\">seemed about right<\/a>.&nbsp; I\u2019ll make a similar assertion now, though it is highly subject to monetary and fiscal policy events, corporate earnings and the Congressional election.&nbsp; Come to think of it, that\u2019s quite a litany of potential events.&nbsp; But as long as we remember what VIX is measuring \u2013 <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/vix-is-not-now-nor-has-it-ever-been-the-fear-index\/\">and it\u2019s not fear<\/a> \u2013 we can keep the current readings in the proper perspective.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019ve heard some infuriating takes about how the high level of VIX and inverted curve in its futures indicate a sign of potential capitulation.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":105699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,14700,18,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[910,207,317,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-162164","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-futures","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-options","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-sp-500","17":"tag-spx","18":"tag-vix","19":"tag-volatility","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is This Volatile Enough for You? 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