{"id":161950,"date":"2022-10-14T12:23:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-14T16:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=161950"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:27","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:27","slug":"easy-come-and-easy-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/easy-come-and-easy-go\/","title":{"rendered":"Easy Come and Easy Go"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I\u2019m going to guess that few of you are familiar with the early <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QJOuTr0BXb4\">\u201870\u2019s hit<\/a> of that name by the long-ago <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QJOuTr0BXb4\">teen idol Bobby Sherman<\/a>.&nbsp; Guess what \u2013 if you aren\u2019t familiar with that song, you aren\u2019t at all familiar with living with inflation either.&nbsp; The song pre-dates the worst of the price pressures that would follow a few years later, but not unlike the shiny. polyester, fringed shirt gracing the singer, inflation had been relegated to the dustbin of unfortunate trends of the 1970\u2019s.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sadly, I have to admit that the song is buried somewhere in the recesses of my brain, and it came to mind when I muttered the phrase in relation to this morning\u2019s drop in US indices that is retracing much of yesterday\u2019s rally \u2013 not the inflationary backdrop that is driving investment trends.&nbsp; Yesterday morning, as futures were plunging in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/10\/13\/hot-inflation-report-means-markets-face-a-more-aggressive-fed-and-likely-recession.html\">immediate wake of the CPI report<\/a>, I engaged in a discussion about how few current investors have any experience investing in an inflationary climate. &nbsp;I was around in the \u201870\u2019s, but not investing. I need to consult my father if I want a first-hand view from that era.&nbsp; For that matter, few if any central bankers have much experience with inflation either. &nbsp;Jerome Powell <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jerome_Powell\">graduated from law school in 1979<\/a>, for example.&nbsp; He was a law clerk and junior associate when his predecessor Paul Volcker was wrestling inflation into submission.&nbsp; We\u2019re all feeling around in the dark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For that reason, I remain inclined to take a \u201cglass half empty\u201d approach to market moving news.&nbsp; As many of the world\u2019s central banks fight inflation, the main tools at their disposal are rate hikes and balance sheet reduction (aka quantitative tightening, or QT).&nbsp; The historical results of utilizing those tools do not set a wonderful precedent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the current pace of rate hikes has been quite abrupt, the Fed Funds rate is still at a historically low level.&nbsp; We only recently matched the rates hikes of late 2018 \u2013 which led to a nasty swoon in the fourth quarter of that year \u2013 and we are well below the 2000 and 2006-07 peaks.&nbsp; Both of those periods ended in recession, as the graph below shows.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-effective-fed-funds-rates-since-1954\"><strong><em>Effective Fed Funds Rates Since 1954<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"351\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture4-2.png\" alt=\"Effective Fed Funds Rates Since 1954\" class=\"wp-image-161953 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture4-2.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture4-2-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture4-2-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture4-2-768x288.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/351;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/fedfunds\">Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bear in mind that even if we hit 5%, which is roughly the current high predicted by Fed Funds futures, we would be below the levels seen throughout the entire decade of the \u201880s and the bulk of the \u201890s.&nbsp; The funds rate slipped below 5% for brief periods in the mid-late \u201870s when inflation temporarily abated, only to reemerge like a vengeful horror-movie villain.&nbsp; It took decades for rates to return to the levels that prevailed prior to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/images\/search?view=detailV2&amp;ccid=EJBhNtdR&amp;id=F3BE2401DB547D64381735B018B0336E5869F1B1&amp;thid=OIP.EJBhNtdRFgW6EPaV3hmkEwHaFj&amp;mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.10906136d7511605ba10f695de19a413%3frik%3dsfFpWG4zsBiwNQ%26riu%3dhttp%253a%252f%252f4.bp.blogspot.com%252f-LGwlcccU_j0%252fVp9wgnTIbJI%252fAAAAAAAAB3U%252fBiRStrNN0ss%252fs1600%252fvlcsnap-2016-01-20-06h32m46s78.png%26ehk%3d%252f%252fMywSvvcEiDKjWfp0eV2Rrvuxe5g4%252fpfxQKdGMX7ao%253d%26risl%3d%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&amp;exph=540&amp;expw=720&amp;q=herb+tarlek+wkrp+leisure+suit+&amp;simid=607996833660680756&amp;FORM=IRPRST&amp;ck=619E5C7161E0A92A37B35F0C6FCD0662&amp;selectedIndex=1\">leisure-suit era<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is also important to remember that we are in a more highly levered economy than we were in the \u201870s.&nbsp; Companies and governments routinely carry more debt than they did in that era, and the Fed\u2019s balance sheet is magnitudes larger.&nbsp; The available data from the Fed doesn\u2019t go back far enough, but the following graph shows that the Fed\u2019s balance sheet is up about 9X since early this century and about 2X in two years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, Since 2002<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"355\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-5.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, Since 2002\" class=\"wp-image-161952 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-5.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-5-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-5-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture3-5-768x291.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/355;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/WALCL\">Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would be quite a feat for central bankers to de-leverage the economy without any hiccups.&nbsp; Heck, we saw one just last month. The UK pension system that required an <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/a-wonder-about-down-under\/\">intervention by the Bank of England<\/a> and led to the demise of the Chancellor of the Exchequer.&nbsp; Just as we have precious little experience with inflation, we have almost none with a period of QT.&nbsp; We see a little blip lower in 2018-19.&nbsp; When combined with rate hikes, it led to the aforementioned late-2018 bear market.&nbsp; The Fed stopped raising rates, but continued to shrink its balance sheet until the repo market started to dry up.&nbsp; At that time, inflation was not a worry, so the Fed was free to reverse course quickly.&nbsp; Now they are likely to feel more constrained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This doesn\u2019t mean that I think we\u2019re heading to zero or expecting catastrophe.&nbsp; But it does mean that I continue to expect volatility \u2013 of which <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-just-happened\/\">yesterday\u2019s move was an extreme example<\/a> \u2013 and remain vigilant about the possibility &#8212; the likelihood \u2013 that the fight against inflation will not be won without some casualties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"520\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-5.png\" alt=\"Securities held on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet\" class=\"wp-image-161951 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-5.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-5-700x389.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-5-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/Picture2-5-768x427.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/520;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/h41\/20221013\/\">Federal Reserve H.4.1 releases<\/a>, Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m going to guess that few of you are familiar with the early \u201870\u2019s hit of that name by the long-ago teen idol Bobby Sherman.  Guess what \u2013 if you aren\u2019t familiar with that song, you aren\u2019t at all familiar with living with inflation either.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":152148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,15,14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[217,12949,8603,570],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-161950","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-cpi","16":"tag-fed-funds-rates","17":"tag-federal-reserve-balance-sheet","18":"tag-inflation","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Easy Come and Easy Go | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I\u2019m going to guess that few of you are familiar with the early \u201870\u2019s hit of that name by the long-ago teen idol Bobby Sherman. 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