{"id":161789,"date":"2022-10-13T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=161789"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:27","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:27","slug":"what-just-happened","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-just-happened\/","title":{"rendered":"What Just Happened?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation and bond yields are thought by many to be the key to the stock market\u2019s progress.&nbsp; So how do we reconcile this morning\u2019s lousy CPI report and rising bond yields with the mid-morning ramp in equity indices?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US equity futures were about 1% higher just ahead of the CPI report.&nbsp; The enthusiasm likely stemmed from the UK, where we saw a sharp rise in gilt prices on reports that the Truss government would be reversing course on its tax program.&nbsp; Fair enough \u2013 UK pension funds are a major source of concern for the global economy, and anything that reduces or eliminates their need to raise more collateral is a net positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the reaction to overseas interest rates seemed excessive ahead of a potentially market moving US data release.&nbsp; And no matter how we slice it, the CPI report was unpleasant.&nbsp; Headline CPI was up 8.2% vs. an 8.1% consensus estimate, while core CPI rose 6.6% vs. a 6.5% consensus.&nbsp; Even worse, the month-over-month numbers were even bigger misses.&nbsp; Both were 0.2% above expectations, with monthly CPI rising by 0.4% and the monthly core rate rising by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/rate-of-change-vs-value-cpi-edition\/\">Two months ago, we discussed<\/a> why it is perhaps more appropriate to look at month-over-month changes price changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than the more commonly reported annual change.&nbsp; At the time, the July CPI report showed an 8.5% rise on a year-over-year basis, but a 0.0% month-over-month rise.&nbsp; Our rationale was that \u201cthe year-over-year change in prices occurred almost exclusively in the 11 months from July 2021 to June 2022 since prices didn\u2019t change in July 2022.\u201d If we are trying to discern the current pace of inflation, it is more useful to focus on the newest data rather than blending it with 11 months of previously disclosed price changes.&nbsp; This seemed to be wrong month for the markets to be shifting to a month-over-month view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures plunged after the report, with ES shifting from a 1% gain to a 2% loss in a matter of minutes.&nbsp; Fed Funds futures began to price in a near-certain 0.75% hike at next month\u2019s FOMC meeting and greater than a 50% chance of a similar hike in December.&nbsp; Rates rose across the yield curve, with 2-year yields rising 20bp before pulling back to a 15bp rise.&nbsp; The 10-year yield showed much more dramatic rebound after its own 20bp rise; it is now up only 5bp.&nbsp; That of course means that the 2-10 inversion is an even deeper 50 basis points, which indicates an even higher likelihood of recession.&nbsp;&nbsp; That seems to be mattering little at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even though we opened sharply lower, it became clear that there was little follow-through selling as the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) flirted with the 3,500 level \u2013 a level not seen for nearly two years.&nbsp; That was reasonable.&nbsp; Traders don\u2019t necessarily want to chase a down market lower, and while the inflation report was disappointing, it wasn\u2019t necessarily bad enough for investors to ditch stocks at fresh lows.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A trading truism is that if selling doesn\u2019t work, try buying.&nbsp; So, when selling was insufficient to take SPX through yet another round number, intrepid traders stepped in to buy.&nbsp; When the selling abated and we began to bounce off the lows, others stepped in.&nbsp; Then more joined in stocks began to reverse course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, around 11AM EDT, we could see the unchanged level in sight.&nbsp; And when the day\u2019s loss was eliminated, a buying frenzy arose.&nbsp; It\u2019s hard to tell if the trigger was stop-losses or simply newly excited traders feared missing a new rally \u2013 or both \u2013 but we shot up another 2% in a matter of minutes.&nbsp; And this where we find ourselves as I write this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders want to gravitate to bullish narratives.&nbsp; It\u2019s human nature.&nbsp; The last recurring bullish narrative was a Fed pivot, to which investors continued to cling despite repeated, strident statements to the contrary from a wide range of Fed officials.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/ibkr-podcasts\/ms-pivot-to-mr-market-lose-my-number\/\">In a recent podcast<\/a>, I opined that \u201c[if] the pivot were someone\u2019s boyfriend or girlfriend, the pivot would be saying, \u2018please lose my number, stop calling me.\u2019\u201d Thus with the pivot off the table, I\u2019ve been hearing more frequent comments that markets often bottom in October.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At a basic level, that is true.\u00a0 Many of us have <a href=\"https:\/\/money.usnews.com\/money\/personal-finance\/mutual-funds\/articles\/2015\/10\/16\/why-november-through-april-is-the-best-6-months-to-invest\">seen reports<\/a> that investors can do better if they are invested from November through April rather than all year round.\u00a0 That implies a bottom being formed prior to November.\u00a0 But remember that this is anything other than a normal year.\u00a0 Bear markets, like the one we\u2019re in, don\u2019t always follow that pattern.\u00a0 I offer the examples of 2018, when we bottomed in December and 2008, when we bottomed in the following April.\u00a0 Seasonality works most of the time, but is hardly foolproof.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019re buying into today\u2019s rally because of intraday shift in liquidity, that seems sensible if you understand the risks.&nbsp; If you\u2019re buying because you\u2019re afraid to miss a seasonal bottom, that seems a bit more dubious.&nbsp; Just two weeks ago we cautioned that \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/fomo-is-a-terrible-motivator\/\">FOMO is a terrible motivator<\/a>.\u201d Chasing markets that rise without an obvious catalyst can be a difficult errand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation and bond yields are thought by many to be the key to the stock market\u2019s progress.  So how do we reconcile this morning\u2019s lousy CPI report and rising bond yields with the mid-morning ramp in equity indices?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":161790,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[2180,217],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-161789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-cpi","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What Just Happened? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inflation and bond yields are thought by many to be the key to the stock market\u2019s progress. 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/high-volatility-sign-charts-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161789\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/161790"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161789"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=161789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}