{"id":160886,"date":"2022-10-07T12:38:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-07T16:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=160886"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:29","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:29","slug":"investors-pivot-on-the-idea-of-a-pivot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/investors-pivot-on-the-idea-of-a-pivot\/","title":{"rendered":"Investors Pivot On The Idea Of A Pivot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>If markets have a big reaction to a number that is basically what was expected, then it\u2019s clear that markets were actually expecting something else.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet again, despite a steady stream of Fed governors asserting otherwise, investors were hoping for a report that could somehow signal a \u201cFed pivot\u201d \u2013 a sign that the Federal Reserve will pause and reverse its rate hikes imminently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The eagerly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report was generally in-line.&nbsp; The 263,000 increase \u2013 with no revisions \u2013 was quite close to the consensus estimate of 255,000.&nbsp; To put it in perspective, that is a difference of 8,000 in a labor force of over 100 million.&nbsp; If that wasn\u2019t priced in, what was?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be fair, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, 0.2% less than the consensus.&nbsp; That matched the cycle low set in July, which matched the all-time low that was set in September 2019.&nbsp;&nbsp; Remember that the unemployment rate has two components. &nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cps\/definitions.htm#ur\">According to the BLS website<\/a>, the unemployment rate is calculated as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Unemployed \u00f7 Labor Force) x 100<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A statistic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cps\/definitions.htm#laborforce\">closely related to that denominator<\/a>, the labor force participation rate dipped by 0.1% to 62.3%.&nbsp; To achieve the lower unemployment rate, the number of people defined as unemployed had to fall faster than the size of the labor force.<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>&nbsp; But keep in mind that the 0.1% differential and the number of unemployed are both very small relative to the size of the US labor force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No matter how we slice it though, the employment picture remains solid.&nbsp; And that creates a problem for those who bought assets on renewed hopes of a Fed pivot.&nbsp; The Fed\u2019s dual mandate is to achieve stable prices and full employment.&nbsp; The full employment part is achieved \u2013 if not exceeded \u2013 so there is little reason for them to lose focus on the much trickier stable price goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s market reaction clarified my view that employment is a one-tailed risk for markets.&nbsp; By that I mean that even a modest decline in labor statistics will do little to change their thinking about the path of interest rates.&nbsp; Anything short of a catastrophic report will keep the Fed\u2019s restrictive policies in place, and it\u2019s hard to think that anyone is rooting for a catastrophe.&nbsp; Labor reports will need to take a backseat to price data.&nbsp; We get PPI and CPI next week, on the 12<sup>th<\/sup> and 13<sup>th<\/sup>, respectively, with the Fed\u2019s preferred measure, the core PCE deflator coming on the 27<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; If you\u2019re still among those hoping for a Fed pivot, at least wait to see if inflation data hints in that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/a-wonder-about-down-under\/\">On Tuesday, we wrote<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cThe payrolls report on Friday and the start of earnings season a week after that will offer some important clarity about whether this two-day rally \u2013 powerful as it is \u2013 is anything more substantial than a major bounce off deeply oversold conditions.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are still a week away from <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/its-not-too-early-to-begin-thinking-about-earnings-season\/\">the start of earnings season<\/a>, but as of now the oversold bounce idea seems credible.&nbsp; Milder inflation data and\/or solid earnings can bolster stock prices.&nbsp; Hopes for a Fed pivot \u2013 something that has been disavowed by Chair Powell and most of his colleagues \u2013 are unlikely to help for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a id=\"_edn1\" href=\"#_ednref1\">[i]<\/a> I highly recommended perusing the full page of BLS explainers: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cps\/definitions.htm\">Concepts and Definitions (CPS) (bls.gov)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If markets have a big reaction to a number that is basically what was expected, then it\u2019s clear that markets were actually expecting something else.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":23430,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[12419,570,822,2622,10115],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-160886","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-fed-pivot","16":"tag-inflation","17":"tag-investors","18":"tag-labor-force","19":"tag-rate-hikes","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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