{"id":157675,"date":"2022-09-16T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-16T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=157675"},"modified":"2023-01-19T18:03:08","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T23:03:08","slug":"september-consumer-sentiment-progress-but-consumers-are-still-feeling-very-lousy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/september-consumer-sentiment-progress-but-consumers-are-still-feeling-very-lousy\/","title":{"rendered":"September Consumer Sentiment: Progress But Consumers Are Still Feeling Very Lousy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Preliminary consumer sentiment for September came in at 59.5, slightly softer than market expectations of 60 and an improvement from August\u2019s 58.2 level. The one-year economic outlook improved as declines in energy prices are alleviating cost pressures on household budgets. Declines in energy prices help consumers at the gas pump, on electricity bills, when buying air fares, when shopping for goods and services, etc. Lower energy costs contribute to declines in transportation costs which limit business costs and places downward pressure on inflation. Consumers don\u2019t like higher prices and lower energy bills support budget flexibility. Expectations for inflation one year from now declined to 4.6 percent from 4.8 percent in August while expectations for inflation five years from now declined from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent. Consumers expressed concerns about their personal finances, their ability to purchase high-cost durable goods and uncertainty regarding economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"796\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Picture1-5-1100x796.png\" alt=\"Consumer Sentiment Index 1966: Q1=100\" class=\"wp-image-157676 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Picture1-5-1100x796.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Picture1-5-700x507.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Picture1-5-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Picture1-5-768x556.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Picture1-5-1536x1112.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Picture1-5-2048x1482.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/796;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Things are getting better as energy costs relieve a large burden; however, a reading of 59.5 is consistent with a recessionary consumer. In addition, a personal savings rate of 5 percent also points to recessionary stress as consumers are pressured by higher costs despite a tight labor market with growing wages. Labor market wage gains continue to trail inflation which means that on balance, workers are not maintaining their purchasing power and are receiving less goods and services for their hours worked. Finally, and with serious concern, credit card debt is piling up to historic records as consumers turn to unsecured debt to fund their lifestyles. Hold on, what about higher interest rates, isn\u2019t that bad for credit card balances?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a kid a very, very long time ago, I recall a large segment of the community talking about how bad credit cards were. \u201cIt\u2019s easy to buy everything you want, but then it\u2019s much more difficult to pay it back, especially when carrying large balances\u201d. This quote from my childhood is especially true against the backdrop of Fed tightening. As the Fed raises rates and tightens financial conditions, credit card rates rise in the aggregate. Which means that the high level of credit card balances will need to be paid back at higher rates of interest, compound interest in a not so wonderful way.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s music to the Fed\u2019s ears to know that inflation expectations are falling and consumers are feeling lousy, it places downward pressure on demand and inflation; however, I suspect that credit card debt is the culprit contributing to signals of hot demand. Just this week we saw an inflation reading and a retail sales reading that were solidly above expectations. These hot readings led to selloffs in equities and bonds as the street ratcheted up their expectations of the Fed tightening and long-term inflation expectations. Consumers may be feeling lousy, but they are clearly continuing to spend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Preliminary consumer sentiment for September came in at 59.5, slightly softer than market expectations of 60 and an improvement from August\u2019s 58.2 level. 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/10\/shopping-e1689179045991.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=157675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=157675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=157675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=157675"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=157675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}