{"id":155083,"date":"2022-08-29T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=155083"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:41","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:41","slug":"goldilocks-feeds-the-bears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/goldilocks-feeds-the-bears\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldilocks Feeds the Bears"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I think it\u2019s time for me to retire my oft-repeated (ad nauseum?) portrayal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-is-a-68-year-old-man-in-a-suit\/\">Goldilocks in a Suit<\/a>\u201d.&nbsp; The rationale for that moniker came from investors\u2019 remarkable ability to seize upon any of the Chair\u2019s comments that might be interpreted in a dovish manner even if the general tone of his commentary was hawkish.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exhibit A was the reaction after the last FOMC meeting on July 27<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) rose nearly 5% in the days following his press conference comments that implied monetary policy was in the range of neutral, ignoring his subsequent comments \u2013 coming just a few sentences later \u2013 about trying to move to a restrictive policy.&nbsp; Traders also ignored <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/good-cop-bad-cop-fed-version\/\">the pushback from other senior Fed officials<\/a> in the immediate aftermath of the meeting.&nbsp; The talk switched away from incipient rate hikes and an increased pace of balance sheet reduction (QT) to when the Fed might <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/yay-we-might-be-in-a-recession\/\">pivot back to adding liquidity<\/a> to the system.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It became painfully apparent that Mr. Powell no longer wanted to be accused of any ambiguity.&nbsp; In a terse eight-minute speech, he made it abundantly clear that fighting inflation was the Fed\u2019s number one consideration, maybe its only consideration.&nbsp; The written version made that message obvious, and the televised version conveyed a level of seriousness, if not anger, that implied \u201cmark my words \u2013 I mean this.\u201d&nbsp; If the Fed\u2019s activities bring about a decline in output, then so be it.&nbsp; Rates will be going higher, the question is by how much and how fast.&nbsp; While there was no explicit mention of QT, there is no reason for anyone listening to doubt the Fed\u2019s commitment to reducing the size of its balance sheet.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stock and bond traders clearly took notice.&nbsp; After a brief head fake, stocks sold off broadly and sharply throughout the rest of the day.&nbsp; Tighter monetary conditions and reduced output are not equity-friendly.&nbsp; Treasury bonds sold off at first, but then closed generally unchanged. &nbsp;Remember that inflation eats away the long-term appeal of a fixed stream of interest payments, so a commitment to fight inflation is good news for bond holders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there is one remaining segment of the market that may not have gotten the message.&nbsp; Fed Funds futures are still implying that rates will decline as soon as next spring, as shown by the graph below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-100.png\" alt=\"Implied overnight rate and number of hikes\/cuts\" class=\"wp-image-155084 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These futures currently imply about a 75% chance of a \u00be% hike at the September 21<sup>st<\/sup> FOMC meeting, and that rates will peak at about 3.75% in March.&nbsp; Subsequent to that, we see rate implications declining, with a full \u00bc% drop priced in for next June or July.&nbsp; That seems a bit quick, since the Fed tends to leave interest rates at a plateau after a period of hikes rather than immediately reverse course.&nbsp; Perhaps Fed Funds futures traders are actually far more pessimistic than others, since the best explanation for their pricing regime is that a recession will come so quickly and decisively that the Fed will need to switch back to rate cuts sooner than other traders anticipate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, Fed Funds futures are pricing in a Fed pivot.&nbsp; But the remaining equity traders who still hope for a Fed pivot should be very careful what they wish for.&nbsp; A policy change that results from a swift, sharp recession is one to be avoided, not applauded.&nbsp; When your choices are inflation or recession,&nbsp; that is hardly an optimal climate for risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We all know that the story of Goldilocks ends with her eaten by the three bears.&nbsp; On Friday, Goldilocks in a Suit ended the story by offering the bears a hearty portion of red meat instead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It became painfully apparent that Mr. Powell no longer wanted to be accused of any ambiguity.  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