{"id":154600,"date":"2022-08-25T12:36:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T16:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=154600"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:42","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:42","slug":"can-goldilocks-in-a-suit-keep-the-bears-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/can-goldilocks-in-a-suit-keep-the-bears-away\/","title":{"rendered":"Can &#8220;Goldilocks in a Suit\u201d Keep the Bears Away?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For those who may have been off mountain climbing in the Grand Tetons, the long-awaited Jackson Hole[i] Economic Symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, kicks off today.&nbsp; Coming near the end of summer, it usually becomes a focus for investors during a slow news cycle.&nbsp; This year, however, it is consequential not only because of timing, but also because markets are craving a crucial dose of clarity from the Federal Reserve \u2013 particularly from its Chair, Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The conference is meant to be an economic confab.&nbsp; The official them of this year\u2019s gathering is \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kansascityfed.org\/newsroom\/2022-news-releases\/kansas-city-feds-jackson-hole-symposium-to-focus-on-constraints\/\">Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy<\/a>,\u201d and while I have no doubt that there will be a wealth of worthy research on that on that important economic topic, the KC Fed\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kansascityfed.org\/newsroom\/2022-news-releases\/kansas-city-feds-jackson-hole-symposium-to-focus-on-constraints\/\">press release<\/a> knows not to bury the lead: \u201cOn Friday, Aug. 26 at 9 a.m. CT, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s remarks will be streamed on the Kansas City Fed\u2019s YouTube channel, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/kansascityfed\">youtube.com\/kansascityfed<\/a>.\u201d&nbsp; The media assemblage is not in Wyoming to hear a series of economic presentations.&nbsp; If that were the case, there must be scores of other conferences for them to cover.&nbsp; No, they are here hoping for a small dose of monetary clarity from the Fed Chair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have <a href=\"\/campus\/?s=goldilocks+in+a+suit\">often referred<\/a> to Chair Powell as \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-is-a-68-year-old-man-in-a-suit\/\">Goldilocks in a Suit<\/a>.\u201d&nbsp; The Goldilocks reference may be even more apt when he is a delivering a key speech in an area known to have a significant bear population.&nbsp; While the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jacksonholetraveler.com\/article\/bear-saftey-tips\/\">local tourism website warns<\/a> about the massive, furry kind, many more are hunched around computers worldwide, wondering if the Chairman\u2019s speech will allow them to pounce or send them back into hibernation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem with predictively analyzing any of Powell\u2019s public addresses is that either he has a way of saying things that people want to hear, or that listeners have a knack of hearing what they want, no matter what he says.&nbsp; During the last post-FOMC press conference, bullish investors seized upon Powell\u2019s assertion that monetary policy was currently at a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20220727.pdf\">neutral level of monetary policy<\/a>.&nbsp; Never mind that his answer to the same question continued with an acknowledgement that further tightening was required, nor did it matter at first that a steady parade of Fed talking heads pushed back on that notion almost immediately.&nbsp; We questioned whether it was selective hearing on the market\u2019s part, or a clever game of \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/good-cop-bad-cop-fed-version\/\">good cop, bad cop<\/a>\u201d by the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, I look at the range of probable outcomes for tomorrow to be structured this way:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"934\" height=\"454\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-81.png\" alt=\"fed meeting outcomes\" class=\"wp-image-154608 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-81.png 934w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-81-700x340.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-81-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-81-768x373.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 934px) 100vw, 934px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 934px; aspect-ratio: 934\/454;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If the parade of economists interviewed in the media are any indication, Chair Powell should come out forcefully with a discussion about further rate hikes and quantitative tightening.&nbsp; Markets seem to be pricing in a cessation of rate hikes and a potential cut down the road.&nbsp; From whom did they get idea, pray tell?&nbsp; It is also entirely possible that he gives a sobering speech but with enough thin reeds for the hopeful to cling to.&nbsp; We saw that just a month ago, which is why my simplistic hunches for what people want to hear is consistently more optimistic than what is actually said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before this morning\u2019s bounce I was ready to assert that a dour response was already priced into both the stock and bond markets.&nbsp; Now I am less certain about the former.&nbsp; If traders interpret the speech as conciliatory we can see <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/recycling-the-playbook\/\">another Friday when traders feast<\/a> on at-money and just out-of-the-money expiring calls in SPY.&nbsp; If they interpret the speech in a negative manner, the 100-day moving average for SPX at 4,057 could come into play.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Grab some popcorn, or maybe a pot of honey, and listen closely to tomorrow\u2019s speech.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[i] A quick aside \u2013 why are these hugely important economic conferences held at ritzy ski resorts (Davos, Jackson Hole)?&nbsp; For example, I can\u2019t imagine that the facilities used by Berkshire Hathaway are booked solid.&nbsp; Omaha is also in the KC Fed\u2019s district.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The long-awaited Jackson Hole  Economic Symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, kicks off today. Coming near the end of summer, it usually becomes a focus for investors during a slow news cycle.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":102404,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,446,10238,3286,62,207],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-154600","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-options","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-fed","17":"tag-federal-reserve","18":"tag-goldilocks","19":"tag-quantitative-tightening","20":"tag-rates","21":"tag-spx","22":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can &#8220;Goldilocks in a Suit\u201d Keep the Bears Away?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The long-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, kicks off today. 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