{"id":153225,"date":"2022-08-17T12:38:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-17T16:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=153225"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:45","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:45","slug":"us-investors-making-a-big-parlay-bet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/us-investors-making-a-big-parlay-bet\/","title":{"rendered":"US Investors Making a Big Parlay Bet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There\u2019s a strange preponderance of red on my screen today.&nbsp; It was something I saw quite often this year, but not so often lately.&nbsp; Yes, we still do have down days, and I\u2019ll assert that they can be quite necessary.&nbsp; My concern is not about a minor downtick today, but a fear that investors have placed a huge parlay bet on the markets.&nbsp; The recent rally in equities implies that we will thread a very tight needle \u2013 that we will we be able to maintain solid earnings growth amidst moderating inflation that will occur with neither aggressive Fed action nor a recession.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can that happen?&nbsp; Sure. Is it likely to transpire in exactly that manner, well, that\u2019s another story.&nbsp; There\u2019s a reason that sports betting companies advertise parlays relentlessly.&nbsp; They have long odds against paying off, and the house is much more likely to price the odds effectively than the gambler.&nbsp; Yet this long-odds bet seems to be the base case at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, a bit of perspective about today\u2019s decline.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) has basically only given back its gains for the week, putting us back to the levels that we saw just as the final stage of an options-fueled ramp was taking hold late last Friday.&nbsp; Since the options activity was focused on SPY, we\u2019ll use that as the basis for the 5-day chart below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spy-5-day-chart-5-minute-bars-august-11-17-2022\"><strong>SPY, 5-Day Chart, 5-Minute Bars, August 11-17, 2022<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"582\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-68.png\" alt=\"SPY, 5-Day Chart, 5-Minute Bars, August 11-17, 2022\" class=\"wp-image-153242 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-68.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-68-700x418.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-68-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/image-68-768x458.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/582;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are solid rationales for today\u2019s pause.&nbsp; For starters, UK inflation was dreadful, with a wide range of statistics coming in above expectations.&nbsp; It is becoming increasingly clear that Europe is suffering from increasing price pressures in a difficult economy.&nbsp; US investors are (were?) somewhat concerned about stagflation, but that seems to be the base case in Europe.&nbsp; A stagflating Europe and a stagnating China is not a great outlook for the world\u2019s economy.&nbsp; It\u2019s entirely possible that a weakening world economy can reduce demand sufficiently to cause inflation to moderate yet not cause a recession in the US, but that seems tricky at best.&nbsp; Certainly the Treasury bond market doesn\u2019t agree, since there is a 45 basis point inversion between 2- and 10-year yields.&nbsp; That is a classic recessionary signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is also important to bear in mind that the most recent leg higher came after Chair Powell\u2019s \u201cneutral\u201d comment at the post-FOMC press conference.&nbsp; Since then, various regional Fed Presidents and Governors pushed back against that \u201cneutral\u201d comment and reinforced the concept that rates hikes will remain in place.&nbsp; The question is not whether they will hike, but by how much.&nbsp; It will be interesting to see if the \u201cneutral\u201d concept made it into the minutes, or whether the Chair was speaking somewhat off the cuff at his press conference.&nbsp; We should also learn more about the plans for quantitative tightening, which should be accelerating in the coming weeks.&nbsp; Perhaps the minutes will point to better odds for the parlay, perhaps not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Running a large options market-making book, which I did for decades, is not unlike being the house at a casino.&nbsp; Market makers tend to make a good portion of their money by selling options with high payoffs and low probabilities of success and then hedging them with cheaper alternatives.&nbsp; When casinos tout parlay bets, that is their hope as well.&nbsp; If the base case for the equity markets is a parlay, rather than a straightforward scenario, understand that the odds of success are much smaller than they seem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recent rally in equities implies that we will thread a very tight needle. Can that happen? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":26210,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[12530,446],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-153225","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-betting","15":"tag-federal-reserve","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Investors Making a Big Parlay Bet | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The recent rally in equities implies that we will thread a very tight needle. 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