{"id":151767,"date":"2022-08-08T12:42:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-08T16:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=151767"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:48","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:48","slug":"return-of-the-nihilists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/return-of-the-nihilists\/","title":{"rendered":"Return of the Nihilists?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>On Friday, after the blowout payrolls report, we noted that the stock market seemed to be <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-bond-market-is-sending-a-message-that-stocks-ignore\/\">ignoring the messages sent by the bond market<\/a>.&nbsp; For the full message, I suggest reading the <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-bond-market-is-sending-a-message-that-stocks-ignore\/\">linked article<\/a>, but the TLDR version is that renewed enthusiasm for rising stocks is allowing equity enthusiasts to ignore the eroding monetary conditions that had enabled huge rises in risk-asset valuations for the better part of a decade-plus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is one thing to observe a phenomenon, another to explain it.&nbsp; I\u2019ve been wrestling with the proper hypothesis, and I kept coming back to two themes that should be painfully familiar to faithful readers: FOMO and nihilism.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>FOMO, an acronym for <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fully-invested-bears\/\">\u201cFear of Missing Out\u201d<\/a>, has been a factor in rising markets more or less forever.&nbsp; No one likes to be left behind, and investors are especially averse to watching others make money while they sit on the sidelines.&nbsp; The fear is particularly acute for institutional investors, who find themselves with smaller asset pools, or even jobless, if they underperform for extended periods of time.&nbsp; A period of positive momentum brings out FOMO even in unenthusiastic investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nihilism, an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/search?q=nihilism&amp;cvid=0ea8ace999034a84b403d72125b61490&amp;aqs=edge..69i57j46j0l7.2810j0j1&amp;pglt=297&amp;FORM=ANNTA1&amp;PC=HCTS\">extreme skepticism maintaining that nothing in the world has a real existence<\/a>, is a much more pernicious term.&nbsp; We first unveiled it at an extraordinarily auspicious time.&nbsp; On February 14, 2020, we published \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/confessions-of-a-market-nihilist\/\">Confessions of a Market Nihilist<\/a>\u201d.&nbsp; We were wrestling with the stock market\u2019s inability to pay attention to, let alone properly discount, the warning signals that were abounding throughout the economy.&nbsp; Stocks rose for another week, then fell by about 1\/3 in the ensuing weeks.&nbsp; I re-read the piece this morning, and the following graph jumped out at me:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-treasury-yield-curve-february-14th-2020-green-vs-one-month-prior-yellow\"><strong>US Treasury Yield Curve, February 14<sup>th<\/sup>, 2020 (green) vs. One Month Prior (yellow)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"367\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture1-1.png\" alt=\"US Treasury Yield Curve, February 14th, 2020 (green) vs. One Month Prior (yellow)\" class=\"wp-image-151768 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture1-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture1-1-300x176.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/367;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/confessions-of-a-market-nihilist\/\"><em>Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/a><em>, via Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With perfect hindsight, the bond market got it right when stocks didn\u2019t.&nbsp; There was a notable inversion in the 2-5 year segment of the yield curve \u2013 again in hindsight, not inverted enough \u2013 but stock traders carried on buying.&nbsp; When we look at the current yield curve we see an even deeper inversion, though in a different portion of the curve:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-treasury-yield-curve-today-green-vs-february-14th-2020-yellow\"><strong>US Treasury Yield Curve, Today (green) vs. February 14<sup>th<\/sup>, 2020 (yellow)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"409\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture2.png\" alt=\"US Treasury Yield Curve, Today (green) vs. February 14th, 2020 (yellow)\" class=\"wp-image-151769 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture2.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture2-700x306.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture2-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture2-768x336.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/409;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of the dip in the intermediate term, bonds are pricing in further rate hikes that eventually will need to be reversed in about two years.&nbsp; The amount of inversion in the 2-10 year portion of the curve is about 40 basis points, something we haven\u2019t seen since the early 1980\u2019s.&nbsp; Few of us were active in the markets at that time, but it was an ugly one for the economy and markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week we addressed <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/market-mushrooms\/\">the kookiness surrounding AMTD Digital (HKD)<\/a>, noting that while it was difficult to classify HKD as a new meme stock, it appeared to attract many of the participants in various meme stock rallies.&nbsp; While HKD appears to be coming back to earth somewhat, down about 20% to $570 as I write this, the traditional meme favorites are back in favor today.&nbsp; Both AMC and GameStop (GME) are both up over 10% this morning.&nbsp; Throw in bitcoin\u2019s flirtation with the $24,000 level, and we can assert that speculation is back.&nbsp; It\u2019s not back in full force, mind you, but back nonetheless.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The return of speculative names is what makes me consider whether it is FOMO or nihilism driving the recent action.&nbsp; For now, I\u2019ll side with FOMO.&nbsp; There are sufficient contrary voices to make me think that we are not at full nihilism, just in a period where giddy performance chaser are in control of light summer volumes.&nbsp; But neither promises to be a lasting prospect.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is one thing to observe a phenomenon, another to explain it.  I\u2019ve been wrestling with the proper hypothesis, and I kept coming back to two themes that should be painfully familiar to faithful readers: FOMO and nihilism.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":21171,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[45,1841,12442,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-151767","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-bonds","17":"tag-fomo","18":"tag-market-nihilism","19":"tag-stocks","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Return of the Nihilists? 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